Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[Gonzo]

This is what people have been saying about the B1G and SEC poaching the top teams from other conferences for years, but they still continue to do it. Someone still has to lose etc.

If this league forms some day, who knows who all is in and who is out. But it can and would be used as leverage for the big brands for unequal revenue to stay in said conferences, and least for the time being.

But again in said super league, we all know its terrible for the sport, but so has pretty much every move made over the last 40 years. They dont care, if it makes more money.

say they take 24 teams, it would basically be 2 divisions or 3, or even 4. then those teams would probably also still play non cons and lower leagues, just as we play non cons and G5s and FCS today.
Then at the end of the year they would have a playoff and a champ. Just like in the NFL or similar.
It is not that difficult.

Again, the next round this could be a threat just to get uneven revenue. Then the following it could actually happen. Who knows.

Ok but then what happens when the bottom half of that 24-team superconference underperforms year after year after year and their brands take a massive hit. Aren't the top 12 going to then say 'why are we including these lame programs' and realize they could make more by cutting the fat?

 

[JUKEBOX]

You could very well be correct but the rest of the conference wouldn't agree and that is the differnce between the way the big ten runs things vs the way the old big 12 just gave certain teams whatever they wanted and why everyone on here seems to think thats the way it works.

Well if the top teams leave the B1G, and the only teams remaining are a Rutgers, Maryland, etc. who cares what they think or how they run things lol

It's probably unlikely anything happens soon with the B1G though since they are probably going to make a good amount of money.

 

[2speedy1]

Valid points all of them. Also to your point in the 2030's or 2040's who knows. If you went back 10-20 years ago no one would have thought all this was possible.

Bingo! That is what we have been trying to say. We have been hearing a lot of nevers from you, and well we heard a lot of nevers about things that eventually happened. I would stop saying never, and start realizing when it comes to money anything is possible, and that loyalty is just a word.

 

[CoKane]

Don't disagree about the pursuit of money thing. But the megaultrasuperleague thing still baffles me. I didn't get an answer earlier. Assuming the 10 really elite brands break off and form their own thing, how does it work? They'd all play each other in the regular season I'd think, then the top two would emerge and play in a title game. Then what? Is that the new CFP championship game? And what happens to the brands of those "elite" programs who are in the megaultrasuperleague that finish in the bottom half every year? If PSU struggles to stay above .500 because they're playing Bama and Georgia and tOSU and Michigan and ND and USC and the rest every regular season, is the PSU elite brand still an elite brand? If not, why would Bama and tOSU want to continue sharing revenue with a non-elite brand like that?

I said something earlier but it was while the thread was popping off so maybe you missed it, totally get it if that happened. The 10 or so break away with a few additions to go coast to coast, a few rivals to get some extra games in and rivalries are money, and maybe fill in anything

And exactly, the 2nd part of that is what us "on the outside" have been saying forever. Like who's losing in the SEC once Texas and Oklahoma come? About 12-13 teams in there expect to be not just good, but extremely good every single season. A bubble has to pop with that somewhere along the line. The Big 10 is a little bit easier to do that with because only really USC's addition was one that's boosting the level of competitiveness in the conference. Rutgers, Maryland, and UCLA are market adds and Nebraska was supposed to be competitive but fell flat on their faces there. Who's going to lose is a talking point we've had for a long while though with us left outs.

 

[CoKane]

Valid points all of them. Also to your point in the 2030's or 2040's who knows. If you went back 10-20 years ago no one would have thought all this was possible.

Very true. It could easily be that the Big 10 and SEC elites make money via some other way the conference figures out and then there's really no point to abandon anyone. Just with the deck we're playing with right now it feels like the most logical advancement once all the big brands get consolidated into 2 conferences. Time will change what that could look like as it moves along

 

[2speedy1]

Ok but then what happens when the bottom half of that 24-team superconference underperforms year after year after year and their brands take a massive hit. Aren't the top 12 going to then say 'why are we including these lame programs' and realize they could make more by cutting the fat?

Sure, just like what is happening now. Dont you see, that is what we are saying with this round. It doesnt matter if it is about money. So when that time comes they will doe something else if it is about money.

At some point the cycle will repeat itself, or it will create a new version. At the point that that new division happens they may be a group of big enough brands and values that they have created a league like the NFL and they consider themselves so far above everyone else similar to P5 to FCS that it wont matter.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

Bingo! That is what we have been trying to say. We have been hearing a lot of nevers from you, and well we heard a lot of nevers about things that eventually happened. I would stop saying never, and start realizing when it comes to money anything is possible, and that loyalty is just a word.

Thats a very fair point. I guess when I am saying never I'm looking more in the immediate future 5-10 years ish. You are correct that by 2040 anything could happen, I just dont see it likely to happen but I should stop saying a definitive "never"

 

[Gonzo]

Sure, just like what is happening now. Dont you see, that is what we are saying with this round. It doesnt matter if it is about money. So when that time comes they will doe something else if it is about money.

At some point the cycle will repeat itself, or it will create a new version. At the point that that new division happens they may be a group of big enough brands and values that they have created a league like the NFL and they consider themselves so far above everyone else similar to P5 to FCS that it wont matter.

Lol, so eventually we end up with Bama and tOSU alone just hopping around in a circle together. Love it.

 

[JUKEBOX]

Yeah I think B1G and SEC are probably set up well in the immediate future. I could just see something 20 years down the line (as a hypothetical), where let's say the SEC signs a huge bajillion dollar contract and the per-school payout is super high.

Then because people have cut the cord for cable, teams like Rutgers, Maryland, etc. no longer have any value. Because of the excess fat in the conference, the B1G blue-bloods are unable to compete with the SEC financially and that would create instability.

 

[exCyDing]

So what are those 24 Bama and tOSU level big brand names that are going to comprise the new league?

SEC: AL, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, LSU, Ole Miss, Miss St, OU, Tennessee, Texas, A&M.
Big 10: Michigan, Mich St, Nebraska, Ohio St, Penn St, UCLA, USC, Wisconsin
ACC: Clemson, Florida St, Miami
Other: ND, Oregon, Washington

On deck: Iowa, North Carolina, Virginia, Okie St.

Last 4 to make the cut are italicized, and I could see either Ole Miss or Miss St making the cut, but maybe not both. First 4 out are Iowa, North Carolina, Virginia and Okie St.

I could also see Notre Dame opting out of an NFL lite and trying to lead a "traditional" college football league/conference/level.

 

[BCClone]

Thats a very fair point. I guess when I am saying never I'm looking more in the immediate future 5-10 years ish. You are correct that by 2040 anything could happen, I just dont see it likely to happen but I should stop saying a definitive "never"

That is probably a difference, I don’t think any of us saying that OSU and the other top dogs will do this stuff in the next few years. What we see in that 15-20 year time frame maybe. The ACC situation will answer a lot on the speed of it. Shoot, the PAC may even answer some questions themselves.

 

[Gonzo]

SEC: AL, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, LSU, Ole Miss, Miss St, OU, Tennessee, Texas, A&M.
Big 10: Michigan, Mich St, Nebraska, Ohio St, Penn St, UCLA, USC, Wisconsin
ACC: Clemson, Florida St, Miami
Other: ND, Oregon, Washington

On deck: Iowa, North Carolina, Virginia, Okie St.

Last 4 to make the cut are italicized, and I could see either Ole Miss or Miss St making the cut, but maybe not both. First 4 out are Iowa, North Carolina, Virginia and Okie St.

I could also see Notre Dame opting out of an NFL lite and trying to lead a "traditional" college football league/conference/level.

There's no way Washington, Oregon, Miami, FSU, Wisco, UCLA, Nebby, Mich. St., A&M, Miss St., Ole Mis, Florida have anywhere near the value to be included in that league. There's maybe 10 truly elite CFB brands. Why would those 10 leave their current conferences to avoid having to be included with less worthy programs just to start a new 24-team league with over a dozen less worthy programs?

 

[CycloneBamaFan]

MSN

I hope the Big 12 can add the mountain schools and set up a nice stable and competitive league.

ACC and Pac are going to have stability problems going forward, and it's hard for me to believe that the B1G or SEC are issue-free forever. Too many divas in those leagues lol

I agree. I hope we see some action next week. Big 12 needs to stay aggressive. It has been very quiet recently.

 

[exCyDing]

There's no way Washington, Oregon, Miami, FSU, Wisco, UCLA, Nebby, Mich. St., A&M, Miss St., Ole Mis, Florida have anywhere near the value to be included in that league. There's maybe 10 truly elite CFB brands. Why would those 10 leave their current conferences to avoid having to be included with less worthy programs just to start a new 24-team league with over a dozen less worthy programs?

Half the league is always going to bring in less than the league average value until you get down to 1 team. On the other hand, what's the value of say, Alabama football if they don't have anyone to play? How many people would watch an inter-squad scrimmage 12 times a year?

The exercise becomes what's the optimal number of schools to maximize the values? I think that number is between 24 and 32.

 

[CascadeClone]

If you do that the problem is you are greatly limiting the ratings. A single super league will have drastically lower ratings because CFB isn't the NFL. Most people don't just pick up a team from out of state. Right now cfb is in a dangerous place but as of right now there are still 5 power conferences and no team has been relegated to a non power 5. When that contraction starts happening for more then a handful of teams then that is going to be a massive problem.

I agree actually. But idk that the tv geniuses agree though, i think that they think its a moneymaker. And if theynthrow enough money around there might be enough takers to get it started.

I dont think you can trust anyone at this point. The Alliance proved that.

 

[Gonzo]

Half the league is always going to bring in less than the league average value until you get down to 1 team. On the other hand, what's the value of say, Alabama football if they don't have anyone to play? How many people would watch an inter-squad scrimmage 12 times a year?

The exercise becomes what's the optimal number of schools to maximize the values? I think that number is between 24 and 32.

That's my point in all of this megaultrasuperleague talk. How is that different from what the B1G and SEC have now or will have if they each expand to 20? The conference elites are always going to need the non-elites to fill out schedules, pad their W column, etc.

 

[BCClone]

Half the league is always going to bring in less than the league average value until you get down to 1 team. On the other hand, what's the value of say, Alabama football if they don't have anyone to play? How many people would watch an inter-squad scrimmage 12 times a year?

The exercise becomes what's the optimal number of schools to maximize the values? I think that number is between 24 and 32.

At 24 you can have 2 divisions and then a championship among them, or four team playoff.

 

[isucy86]

Why would ESPN let Fox have schools they have locked up in an iron clad agreement which they control at a bargain price, to bet on a possible future outcome that they will not have control of and is just speculation?

One reason is money. Although the ACC is a bargain at about $40M per school in 2022 dollars. That is an investment of around $550M.

If 4 elite ACC schools were realigned to the SEC in 2022 dollars that would be around $70M per school or $280M investment. Eliminating the ACC Network would save ESPN around $270M.

ESPN just found $ it can use on the CFB Playoff and/or part of a new Big12 deal. Big12 Tier3 rights to put in ESPN+?

 

[jdoggivjc]

OSU nearly went independent. BIG is not as stable as you might want.

You really like giving that Gene Smith line more credit than it deserves, don't you? Perhaps they entertained the idea of going independent in 2020 for a hot minute because the Big 10's COVID policies were preventing them from playing - and then they realized that even as big of a brand OSU is they're not nearly as valuable outside the Big 10 as they are inside of it.

 

[isucy86]

Never say never I guess but there's very, very little chance of unequal revenue sharing for full members. B1G has been around for 120+ years, it's going to be the richest conference in college sports, I don't see anyone risking that kind of instability given it's a policy that's already proven to tear conferences apart.

Who knows the future and how Presidents will decide.

Even though the Big10 has been around 120+ years, BIG MONEY has only dominated the last decade.

When BTN was founded, $20M annual media rights per school was like striking gold. In a handful of years, Big10 schools will be making $100M annually.

The bigger the money, the bigger the greed!!