It makes sense of the Corners to wait to see what their different options are. There's no need for them to announce a move this week or next. Either before or after the announcement, they're going to have to get a lot of stakeholders on the same page. Having numbers to quantifiably back up that decision is about the best defense, regardless of what they choose.
I'd be shocked if ESPN offers a huge bump for an alliance or a merger between the PAC and ACC. 1+1 does not equal 3 and ESPN doesn't really have to give a full market evaluation since they have the ACC locked up for another good while. They're essentially bidding against themselves and their desire to have the ACC as the basis for third P3 conference.
There's so many chess pieces, it's hard to keep track. The Big 10 is probably standing pat at 16 until Notre Dame makes a decision. If the ACC blows up, it probably forces ND's hand. Between the SEC and Big 10, they're choosing the Big 10 without any question. That would be a massive gift from ESPN to Fox and it's really hard to see if what ESPN's ROI would be in getting maybe Clemson, FSU, Miami, and VA/VA Tech or whomever else into the SEC and combining the PAC/ACC leftovers.
The PAC members will run the numbers on all the different configurations before making a decision. The Big XII isn't going anywhere. The ACC isn't going anywhere. The Big 10 and SEC will make offers to who they want when they want and they will both get what they want. I'm really not expecting any decisions to be made until August or later.
The only thing I worry about at all is access to the playoff. Personally, I will start getting nervous when the Big 10 and SEC start looking to add multiple teams that don't really seem to make sense from a per team media value perspective, and between the SEC and Big 10 they get over 40 members.
For now I think ESPN and Fox both understand that cutting off a chunk of the plains (low population by very high interest in CFB), Washington, Northern CA, Arizona, CO and Utah from the playoff would jeopardize growth. None of these areas are absolutely critical, but all of which, they are either high population or high interest. All together it starts to matter. Bigger pieces of the pie for those that remain, but cutting those areas out limits how much that pie might grow in the future. I think football growth rate is tenuous. I don't think we've seen the hit that the massive decrease in kids participating in football will eventually have.
If the Big 10 adds Oregon, UW, and say Stanford, with a spot open for ND, while the ACC starts to take steps toward dissolution with UNC, UVA, FSU and Clemson all Big 10 or SEC bound, I'm starting to get worried. Then you might see a couple Big 12 brands poached. That's why I would rather see the Big 12 get aggressive, add the four corners schools and make a push for UW. I don't think the Big 12 can sit looking to optimize media dollars per team. The conference needs critical mass and enough critical geography locked up to help stabilize the conference and playoff access.
That also suggests to me that the Big 12 better be careful if they stray from ESPN or Fox in media deals. Like it or not, if you sign a decent media deal with one of those two, the Big 12 becomes a co-product of one of the P2, and that media partner becomes motivated to keep the Big 12's playoff access. If you sign outside of those two, they probably push the P2 to poach enough to blow up the remaining leagues.
