Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[RustShack]

Agree. ESPN and FOX basically own these conferences at this point. If they want something to happen, a GoR isn't going to stop it from happening, because they're the source of the money.

Lol the GoR can completely stop it. In this scenario the Big12 and OuuT agreed to a buyout from it(allegedly), but Fox and ESPN couldn’t come to an agreement(and Fox not wanting to lose a year of OuuT is the reason).

The ACC isn’t going to agree to a buyout with so many years left, and ESPN sure as hell isn’t letting any ACC schools go to the B1G during the ACC’s GoR.

 

[exCyDing]

The only reason they didn't leave was bc of one of the networks. Shows if the networks want it, it can happen.

ESPN wasn’t willing to pay the price Fox wanted, from the sound of it. Probably because it didn’t make economic sense. And that’s the sticking point with the GOR. The seller isn’t going to give away the store, and the buyer isn’t going to pay so much that the deal is a loser. Those numbers don’t align at this time.

Who needs schools to move from the ACC to the P2? The P2 and networks are making money hand over fist with the status quo. The ACC survives so long as the GOR is intact. The schools not going to the P2 remain in a P4/5 conference. The only entities that need to move are the ones that would get an invite to the P2, and they don’t have the money to buy themselves out of their deal.

 

[Jeffrey Scott]

ESPN wasn’t willing to pay the price Fox wanted, from the sound of it. Probably because it didn’t make economic sense. And that’s the sticking point with the GOR. The seller isn’t going to give away the store, and the buyer isn’t going to pay so much that the deal is a loser. Those numbers don’t align at this time.

Who needs schools to move from the ACC to the P2? The P2 and networks are making money hand over fist with the status quo. The ACC survives so long as the GOR is intact. The schools not going to the P2 remain in a P4/5 conference. The only entities that need to move are the ones that would get an invite to the P2, and they don’t have the money to buy themselves out of their deal.

 

[Jeffrey Scott]

Why do we keep talking about this?

 

[JP4CY]

I love this thread but some people need to condense their post lengths a little.

 

[2speedy1]

The only reason they didn't leave was bc of one of the networks. Shows if the networks want it, it can happen.

Meh, that is what one reporter is saying. That may be a very simplified version of events. Not to mention, it still shows that 1 party saying no still makes it impossible to happen.

You see if the conference can put a number on their lost income for the media money for those schools...ie 40M per school per year for their media and other income, plus exit fees to leave the conference. The networks still have a not only a monetary claim for their lost commercial revenue, but the loss in content overall. This is all tied together with the GoR.

The conference might actually be the easiest to come to at least a value of what is needed to be made whole, mostly that is written in what the conference would be earning per school per year. But nothing says they still have to allow them out of the contract even if they offer to pay full value, and even if the media partners do too. There is a ton of red tape. And it is not just oh we can pay this and leave, and even if it was, that amount of money is extreme. Like new facility money for the Big 12 for a year or two, for the amount of years left on the ACC contract you are talking the value of building a New NFL caliber stadium, amount of money.

 

[2speedy1]

Why do we keep talking about this?

Its the offseason.......

 

[2speedy1]

I love this thread but some people need to condense their post lengths a little.

Some of us dont get paid per post. So we put more into each post......

 

[ScottyP]

Some of us dont get paid per post. So we put more into each post......

I can get paid to post here? Where do I sign up?

 

[cyclones500]

I love this thread but some people need to condense their post lengths a little.

tl/dr.

 

[RustShack]

I love this thread but some people need to condense their post lengths a little.

You need to condense your mom.

 

[isucy86]

Agree. ESPN and FOX basically own these conferences at this point. If they want something to happen, a GoR isn't going to stop it from happening, because they're the source of the money.

ESPN & Fox are the money source, but they have no ability to diminish the legality and obligations under the GOR. The GOR protects the conference/school relationship and the conference/network relationship. The Media Rights Agreement protects the conference/network relationship. The two contracts compliment each other. That's why OU & UT aren't going anywhere.

As much as ESPN wants UT/OU in the SEC, the GOR and the Fox & ESPN Media Rights deals are preventing it. IMO this shows the legal strength of the GOR and Media Rights Agreements. ESPN/Fox write the checks, but as long as a Conference meets its legal obligations then ESPN/Fox have to continue to write the checks until the Media Rights Agreement expires.

 

[JP4CY]

Some of us dont get paid per post. So we put more into each post......

True. (Just made a buck)

 

[RustShack]

If espn really wanted, they could offer Fox a pick of some Texas/Oklahoma games for one year, maybe go off the average OuuT games Fox has shown during this current agreement. Or ESPN could just foot the difference, which doesn’t really make sense for them while also paying OuuT more to be in the SEC as well.

 

[Clonedogg]

EXACTLY!! But....

Still none of any part of my post cancels out the other. Even if Oregon and Wash dont want unequal rev, the other factors can still be. And if they do, it would obviously destabilize the PAC beyond repair and would blow it up even faster than the money difference.

For instance the elevator clause still could increase the Big 12 Media contract as much as 60% for adding more P5 teams. That would increase the pay gap of 7M from the 25M they would get in the Pac and the 32M in the Big12 as much as 20M brining the media pay in the Big 12 closer to 55M if they get the full 60% increase. My hypothetical was extremely conservative, but just an example of how the money could become a LOT more than just a few Million very easily when considering a few things, if some of them come into play.

You see, paying the Big12 15M per team more for the added content by adding 4-6 teams is still a win for ESPN. It is still 5-10M per less than for what they are offering the PAC and they would get the content they want. So they can offer as much as a 60% bump for adding more P5 teams in the west. For that window etc. Which would be in the area of 19M. Making the media compensation 50M+ in the Big 12, Not including the other income....that is 25M more than the Media offer on the table as reported for the PAC right now. One thing is it probably is 60% more on the total value then divided by the teams so it would actually be less than 25M more per team. But would still be a Huge raise, for everyone, as it would still be on top of our already 32M.

A couple of these schools may actually be trying to be difficult to purposely sabotage the Pac. Keep in mind if the Pac completely falls apart a few of these teams know they would have a landing spot, and it would be an easier move for them, if the Pac totally implodes. I would never have thought something like that could be a possibility but the last few years have shown anything is possible.

This is not how the 60% works...espn owns 60% of our rights. If we expand with P5 schools, espn will match their portion per school. So really every big12 school will actually get a haircut if we expand. Because fox at 40% ownership, will not pay more if the conference expands, their portion is what it is.

 

[AuH2O]

Agree. ESPN and FOX basically own these conferences at this point. If they want something to happen, a GoR isn't going to stop it from happening, because they're the source of the money.

They are calling the shots only in terms of not being willing to foot the bill for early exit.

 

[2speedy1]

If espn really wanted, they could offer Fox a pick of some Texas/Oklahoma games for one year, maybe go off the average OuuT games Fox has shown during this current agreement. Or ESPN could just foot the difference, which doesn’t really make sense for them while also paying OuuT more to be in the SEC as well.

Which comes down to, everything has to pencil out. In the end the cost versus benefit has to work. In most if not all cases what is showing the value of paying the high price, if a deal could even be made, is not worth the price, for the actual value of leaving early, for those having to pay it. This is why these agreements are strong. At the end of the day the cost to get out of them is so much higher than what it is actually worth.

 

[2speedy1]

This is not how the 60% works...espn owns 60% of our rights. If we expand with P5 schools, espn will match their portion per school. So really every big12 school will actually get a haircut if we expand. Because fox at 40% ownership, will not pay more if the conference expands, their portion is what it is.

That is only in the case of adding a school straight up.

The escalator/elevator clause is different. If it is enacted because of a significant amount of content is added in a "NEW" Media window/Time zone, then we can add another partner, or increase our deal for adding the new content. But the schools added have to be such that would trigger the escalator.

I may be misunderstanding that ESPN will only give 60% for added content, but I have understood that its up to an additional 60% if the clause is enacted, and/or another media partner. I understood it as If it was just ESPN they would give as much as 60% more of the total divided by the number of schools.

Simplified math 32M x12 = 384M per year
384M x 60% increase = 614M per year after adding 4 teams.
614M / 16 = 38M+ 614/ 18 = 34M Per school per year. From ESPN.
Not huge increase alone but definitely not a loss, and just increases the amount compared to the 25M offered to the Pac.
Then because of the escalator they would be able to add another Media partner as well to increase the income even more. Meaning by bringing in CBS, or Amazon etc. to pay say another share could drastically increase the total.

Everything I have heard is it would be especially good for the Big12 to gain more teams out west, if it was the way you say, it would be especially bad, because every current team would stand to lose as much as 40% a year for adding teams. No way Yormark would be looking to add if that was the case.

Edit: What may be possible is be are both sort of right, that you are right but if the escalator is enacted the increase in income is completely dependent on bringing on another media partner. But I have not understood it that way... exactly. I have understood we would look at a mild increase from just adding them from ESPN, and gaining a large increase by adding another partner.

 

[Clonedogg]

That is only in the case of adding a school straight up.

The escalator/elevator clause is different. If it is enacted because of a significant amount of content is added in a "NEW" Media window/Time zone, then we can add another partner, or increase our deal for adding the new content. But the schools added have to be such that would trigger the escalator.

I may be misunderstanding that ESPN will only give 60% for added content, but I have understood that its up to an additional 60% if the clause is enacted, and/or another media partner. I understood it as If it was just ESPN they would give as much as 60% more of the total divided by the number of schools.

Simplified math 32M x12 = 384M per year
384M x 60% increase = 614M per year after adding 4 teams.
614M / 16 = 38M+ 614/ 18 = 34M Per school per year. From ESPN.
Not huge increase alone but definitely not a loss, and just increases the amount compared to the 25M offered to the Pac.
Then because of the escalator they would be able to add another Media partner as well to increase the income even more. Meaning by bringing in CBS, or Amazon etc. to pay say another share could drastically increase the total.

Everything I have heard is it would be especially good for the Big12 to gain more teams out west, if it was the way you say, it would be especially bad, because every current team would stand to lose as much as 40% a year for adding teams. No way Yormark would be looking to add if that was the case.

Edit: What may be possible is be are both sort of right, that you are right but if the escalator is enacted the increase in income is completely dependent on bringing on another media partner. But I have not understood it that way... exactly. I have understood we would look at a mild increase from just adding them from ESPN, and gaining a large increase by adding another partner.

FOX Could Hold Up Potential Big 12 Expansion: Report

On Sunday, the Big 12 and its television partners, ESPN and FOX, agreed to a new six-year media rights agreement, according to the Sports Business Journal. The deal is worth a total of $2.28B, an annual average of $380M, according to sources. The Big 12 has two years remaining on its current...

www.heartlandcollegesports.com

 

[2speedy1]

FOX Could Hold Up Potential Big 12 Expansion: Report

On Sunday, the Big 12 and its television partners, ESPN and FOX, agreed to a new six-year media rights agreement, according to the Sports Business Journal. The deal is worth a total of $2.28B, an annual average of $380M, according to sources. The Big 12 has two years remaining on its current...

www.heartlandcollegesports.com

Pretty much says what I am saying....he talks about adding "a" team not a group of teams. He talks about Fox "MIGHT" not be on board to pay their share.

Says their is a prorate for adding "a" school that they would get the same amount. But did not talk about the escalator that allows for adding another partner if adding a group of schools. Talks about the ESPN side but not so much about the Fox side other than what he "guesses".

It starts out like he knows all the fine details of the contract, then....starts talking like he is just guessing. Talks gray areas, and unknowns, his guesses.