Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[WhoISthis]

According to his numbers, he expects the Big ten and SEC to rule it with ACC in third and Big XII in fourth and probably not getting one. If he is being realistic to how the breakdown would be in a slanted playoff, I would guess 4 to SEC, 3 to Big 10, and one to the ACC (If he wants them to be the third in line).

They originally thought OuT would be 50% of our TV markets, now they think maybe only a 5MM hit. I would guess the PAC would be in that 30 MM area.

As someone has said, this is not true, and is not what Navigate had in their model (what he made the updates on). The Big 12 was basically equal with PAC and ACC in assumed CFP berths. ACC was avg of 1.4 CPF berths, Big 12 avg of 1.5, and PAC avg of 1.6. Maybe a little hit in total CFP +NY6, but not too material. And likely optimistic for PAC, given the Pac12's steady decline.

But it is clear that if they were peers of the Big 12 with USC/UCLA, they are less peers now, and that a Big 18 is much stronger position to pull autos and at-larges in whatever CFP format, than each conference going alone.

 

[RustShack]

The SEC is going to start running into the problem the Big12 has had. If they are only adding good teams, someone has to lose those games. An undefeated season for Alabama may not happen as often.

 

[Clonehomer]

That's like $10 a month vs $70 or so for YouTube TV. Sign me up!

And the big benefit is that you don't have to subsidize the SEC then. Cause you're going to see ESPN paying for that new SEC contract in your streaming bill eventually.

 

[WhoISthis]

The SEC is going to start running into the problem the Big12 has had. If they are only adding good teams, someone has to lose those games. An undefeated season for Alabama may not happen as often.

As long as they are in the top 3-4 of the SEC, it doesn't matter how many losses.

Bama losing a game or two is not a problem in the expanded playoffs in which the P2 conferences will more auto-berths, plus an extreme such a perception advantage.

 

[Cyforce]

Impact of USC/UCLA move to B1G on anticipated revenue per team and other conferences

Why do the BiG adds raise their per team revenue 50%.

 

[yowza]

Just wait until this BiG and SEC CFB money starts showing up. Think they will buy down tuition?

Nope. It is a damn racket. No one demands universities truly control their costs.

 

[Boxerdaddy]

Why do the BiG adds raise their per team revenue 50%.

They're getting a new contract with higher numbers

 

[RustShack]

Why do the BiG adds raise their per team revenue 50%.

It was already jumping a ton, the new adds just added more.

 

[PickSix]

This is big coming from Dodd, seeing as how anti-Big 12 most of his content is.

 

[BCClone]

This is big coming from Dodd, seeing as how anti-Big 12 most of his content is.

Tell the other schools that the PAC is talking to that we can guarantee them into the PAC if they hold out on them. Let us pull 2-4 teams, the PAC will survive, they will get a boost, and both of us are happy. If they jump now, the conference will collapse eventually and then they may get nowhere. Win Win for both of us.

 

[Gonzo]

The graphic says its based on each P5 gets a automatic bid.
View attachment 100668

Not sure I'm buying the stuff about SEC standing pat. If these numbers are close to the actual mark, SEC is not going to like being that far behind the B1G.

 

[WhoISthis]

Tell the other schools that the PAC is talking to that we can guarantee them into the PAC if they hold out on them. Let us pull 2-4 teams, the PAC will survive, they will get a boost, and both of us are happy. If they jump now, the conference will collapse eventually and then they may get nowhere. Win Win for both of us.

Why would those schools, like SDSU, want to join an absolutely gutted PAC over the current one? The assumption that the PAC survives 2-4 more losses is unlikely anyway.

 

[clonedude]

They don't park in the ramp normally.

The several nurses I’ve talked to down there have said they have to park a lot further away, and they HATE game days.

They have to walk through tailgate parties and deal with men yelling stuff at them.

 

[BCClone]

Why would those schools, like SDSU, want to join an absolutely gutted PAC over the current one? The assumption that the PAC survives 2-4 more losses is unlikely anyway.

The PAC with any leftovers will be more valuable than where they are. The PAC will be worth something even if it's only 4 of the old teams. It's also becoming apparent that Washington and Oregon have no place to go since they won't go to the Big XII. They will stick around and pull a larger share. The new teams can probably pull 8-10 MM which is twice that of the MWC.

 

[WhoISthis]

Not sure I'm buying the stuff about SEC standing pat. If these numbers are close to the actual mark, SEC is not going to like being that far behind the B1G.

I certainly don't buy that the SEC is telling schools desperate to not have a $800 million deficit to P2 that the SEC is closed. Those schools would have no need to wait for a SEC offer, and FOX/BIG then takes the low risk/high reward action of telling 4 schools they are in the BIG if they can get there.

The only winner in that ACC civil war to get out of GOR is the FOX. ND likely utilizes it as an opportunity to leave ACC too.

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

Why would those schools, like SDSU, want to join an absolutely gutted PAC over the current one? The assumption that the PAC survives 2-4 more losses is unlikely anyway.

$$$$$ San Diego gets very little money being a member of the Mountain West conference, so joining the PAC12 would double if not triple their TV revenue.

 

[GoldCy]

The several nurses I’ve talked to down there have said they have to park a lot further away, and they HATE game days.

They have to walk through tailgate parties and deal with men yelling stuff at them.

I believe they normally park in a lot west of kinnick

 

[WhoISthis]

The PAC with any leftovers will be more valuable than where they are. The PAC will be worth something even if it's only 4 of the old teams. It's also becoming apparent that Washington and Oregon have no place to go since they won't go to the Big XII. They will stick around and pull a larger share. The new teams can probably pull 8-10 MM which is twice that of the MWC.

Maybe, but you're asking them to jump to the sub-optimal outcome. If the PAC is talking to them about adding, they'll wait to see if that occurs. If the PAC decides on not adding them- then it moot for the Big 12 to ask them to hold out anyway (asking schools the PAC doesn't really want to not go to PAC)

It is just as likely that the more the PAC needs to add Cal St schools and other inferior G5 schools to what the Big 12 added last summer, the more it drives PAC value to us. I say we tell Fresno and SDSU they should demand more Mountain West join. Flood the elitist in the PAC with G5.


And what remains of a PAC after Big 12 poaches will likely join the MWC, which is a win for the MWC

 

[WhoISthis]

$$$$$ San Diego gets very little money being a member of the Mountain West conference, so joining the PAC12 would double if not triple their TV revenue.

Not a PAC that the Big 12 just gutted. That's the MWC with a different name.

When we say the Big 12 is adding 2-4 PAC, it won't be the lowest 4 remaining PAC, and because of that, it won't be just 2-4.

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

Not a PAC that the Big 12 just gutted. That's the MWC with a different name.

When we say the Big 12 is adding 2-4 PAC, it won't be the lowest 4 remaining PAC, and because of that, it won't be just 2-4.

Until the Big 12 takes teams from the Pac 12, the league members will make more than schools in the MWC. SD is hoping that they get a chance to join, and get in on the money train, before it falls apart.

If the league is gutted, then the remaining teams will end up in the MWC, so if you are SD, you either stay where you are and the crappy TV package or try to improve you lot in the game. SD is hoping the league stays together.