Yes, but was Amazon's technology 23rd century like Apple's.
Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)
- Thread starter ISUcyclones11
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$300M is very, very optimistic. There’s the $120M exit fee and 11 years of media rights (2025-26 to 2035-36). ESPN’s paying the ACC $17M/, so you’re at $308M right there. The ACC has their network on top of that $17M. I’m not sure what the breakdown is, but maybe $10M/? And the schools leaving are probably driving an outsized share if that revenue. Will ESPN continue their current deal sans the top 4-6 schools, or will the renegotiate it for a lower amount? It’s a material change, so they very likely could.
I think you’re edging closer to $500M before you even get into harder to measurable values like being in the 3rd/4th best league, losing NCAA tourney money, bowl agreements, etc. Then there’s the amount it’s going to cost to overcome the “No, we don’t want to sell your rights back to you and face the PAC’s fate or barely continue as the #4 conference.”
Even if it was a major windfall that the left behind schools might agree to, where does that money come from? How does whomever is putting up that money make it back, much less a ROI? After all, you’re talking about close to $2B for 4 schools, $3B for 6. And if the Networks are putting the money up, they then have to pay the ACC schools in their new conference.
And finally, the SEC/B10 will probably be $40M to $50M ahead of the ACC in money per year. That means FSU, UNC etc are missing out on $440M to $550M over the next 11 years. That’s basically the same as what they’d have to pay to get out. This seems like a big to-do for no real gain at the end of the day.
When you run through everything, it looks pretty unlikely to happen. I wouldn’t be surprised if the ACC breaks up before 2036, but I don’t see anyone leaving before the 2030s.
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Yeah but which conference is going to offer such a deal, that will cover equity costs and offer the income they desire. Think Georgia and Florida are stumbling blocks for the SEC, not saying they won't relent but initial full share I would question, and the BIG just booked WOR for 30m.
Texas is far more valuable than FSU, and getting out a year early was challenging for UT. There isn’t an ACC brand worth what UT is worth. ACC teams paying a huge buyout fee, media dollar payout all to get into a league probably at a reduced share isn’t happening anytime soon.
Isn’t the GoR set up so the team leaving gives up the media dollars they earn with their new league?
The ACC teams like UNC and FSU are probably stuck for a while.
While yes there would be an eventual payback, but considering the buyout, GOR and likelihood of coming in at a partial share I think it’s a hell of a lot longer than you think. Second, it’s a cash flow problem. You’ve got to not only come up with the cash up front, you’ve got to come up with a decade worth of AD operating expense to make up for media dollars you miss out on due to GOR.
I don’t think there’s enough cash in hand or assurances that the next media deals will be larger to be sure of a return on investment. Whose to say some massive, realignment that makes everything moot isn’t going to happen in the next 10-15 years?
Having a weak bottom of the conference is a huge factor in getting teams ranked highly. When the Big 10 added Rutgers and Maryland, it was a financial play, but it also added two soft teams to to rack up wins against. Nebraska has turned out to be similar. And if you don't have a super weak bottom of the conference, you schedule 8 conference games like the SEC.
Backload the schedules with your high profile matchups, so both teams can be undefeated when they play each other. Then the loser isn't punished, and the winner's profile is elevated. The Big 10 does it every year.
Every pundit keeps saying the top 12 is going to be all Big 10 and SEC, but I don't think that's any more true today than it was last year at this time. Rankings like teams with few losses. In week 10, A 6-3 Big 10 team is not going to be ranked higher than an 8-1 Big 12 team. The number of teams hasn't changed. The quality of the teams hasn't changed. The schedule and the paychecks have changed. That's it. And for many Big 10 teams, the schedule isn't getting easier, especially with Oregon and Washington now on board. Losses are what matter, and making sure your top brands suffer as few of those as possible is the goal as a conference.
Of course, you have to win a couple games in the playoff, and that will be the most difficult part for the new Big 12.
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Yeah, the GOR gives the ACC all media rights. A school can leave, but the ACC gets the media money through the end of the GOR unless they buy their rights back. There’s also no stipulated value of those rights or a procedure to buy them back, so low end would be what they’re getting in the ACC and high end would be what they’re getting in the new conference.
It sure looked like getting to the B10 or SEC would cost them almost every penny of the additional money they’d make as members there (at a full share) through the end of the GOR. They’re probably better off trying to get bowl/CFP money for themselves from the ACC and waiting for the next round of contracts (2031 for the B10, 2034 for the SEC).
Edit: Wanted to add, there is a theoretical workaround to all this whereby the schools legally invalidate the GOR. I’ve yet to hear a convincing legal theory as to how they might do that without upending a whole lot of case law and through (likely) appeals should they win the first case.
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Yep.
Or my 2nd Gordon Gekko quote. Paraphrased.
“Never get emotional about Conference Realignment, Clouds the Judgment”…
I mean, at the end of the day, given the ACC owns those rights, the departing team and their new conference (and their media partner) simply wouldn't have the IP rights to air that game at all, if it came down to it.
As to a negotiated buyout, some people have tried to look at it in terms of what FSU is making\could make, but in reality it probably also needs to look at the cost to the remaining institutions. If, for example, FSU leaving causes a payment reduction of say $3M\year (random number) to each of the remaining teams, suddenly you're looking at 35-40 mil a year in that cost. Over 11 years you're probably talking $500mil, plus the exit fee.
The numbers simply don’t work out. FSU’s noise is all about trying to squeeze the ACC to get a bigger slice of the pie. I’m curious just how eager the ACC will be to try to placate them (or others) since the schools really have no leverage and will leave at the end of the GOR either way.
I was surprised to hear he is an ISU alum after how negative he’s been towards the Big12. He is really coming off poorly, ASU fans seen to be fed up with him.
Is Florida State trying to 'create chaos?' ACC insiders react to Seminoles' comments
Comments this week by Florida State president Richard McCullough have caused concern for key power brokers and stakeholders throughout the ACC.
www.espn.com
Good article
Utah’s fans might be annoying but the ASU administration says hold my beer.
Coming into the conference as Villian #1.
Coming into the conference as Villian #1.
The problem with saying Oregon and Washington had to leave to find the security they needed, which he does several times, is that those two schools were the only ones with the power to provide that security for the conference once uscla left.
Credit to the host for coming across as genuine in his feelings for OSU and WSU getting shafted.
