Prediction for USC/UCLA postmortem.

Which scenario do you predict is most likely? (Not necessarily what you prefer).

  • BIG 10 is done (for now). The Big 12 poaches its pick of the PAC 12.

  • BIG 10 grabs few more PAC 12 (i.e. Oregon). The Big 12 takes PAC 12 leftovers.

  • The PAC 12 raids the Big 12 to survive. Iowa State is not one of them.

  • The PAC 12 raids the Big 12 to survive. Iowa State is one of them.

  • The PAC 12 survives like the Big 12 did last year by picking up schools like Fresno.

  • The Big 12 is raided by multiple conferences. Iowa State is AAC or Conference USA bound.

  • The Big 12 is raided by multiple conference. Iowa State ends up in a better conference.

  • The ACC and the PAC 12 implode due to BIG and SEC. The Big 12 raids PAC 12 and the ACC.

  • The Big 12 and PAC 12 merge.


Results are only viewable after voting.

farminclone

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I think the B1G goes after 2 out of 3 with Oregon, Stanford, and Washington. Then I hope the Big 12 absorbs most of the rest of the PAC.

Edit: the B1G might take all 3 of those PAC teams with the thought of adding ND at some point to have an even number.
 

clone52

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I voted 2… I *think* ND stays independent and the b10 grabs 2 more (Wash/Oregon).

The fact that they were not invited yet surprises me a bit. But the reality is, I don’t think the pac offers a lot from a tv revenue standpoint. At the end of the day this is the only thing that matters.

One interesting/crazy scenario (don’t think this is likely), would be for the sec to swoop in while the b10 waits for ND. ND says no, but sec adds Oregon, Wash, Col, Utah to go to 20 while the b10 sits on the sideline.
TV isn't the only think that matters. If the Big 10 and SEC can create a playoff monopoly and shut out everyone else, the money would be massive.

Also either conference might have to take someone else to make things work. Like can the SEC get FSU and Clemson alone, or do they need to take more to break their grant of rights?
 
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clone52

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There is no way the other teams would vote to void the GOR in that situation because they would have about $7 billion to divide between 8 teams. And the others aren’t going to pay $1 billion to join the other leagues especially Syracuse and Duke.

Eventually they get enough votes to do it. Or the big stuff comes in 10 years. I don't know how many votes it takes, but let's say it's 10. SEC takes Clemson, FSU, Miami, NC State, Louisville, Virginia Tech while the Big 10 takes UNC, Virginia, Ga Tech and Boston College. Boom, the ACC disbands.

And before you telle those teams don't provide enough value, if means getting Clemson and FSU a decade sooner, plus a playoff Monopoly, then they absolutely are worth it.
 

cymonw1980

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There is no way the other teams would vote to void the GOR in that situation because they would have about $7 billion to divide between 8 teams. And the others aren’t going to pay $1 billion to join the other leagues especially Syracuse and Duke.
Don’t disagree. It must be a pretty rock solid contract otherwise someone would have found a way out.

The B12 GOR is the reason ou/tx are still around (and they only have 3 yrs left on the deal. The ACC has 14! Imagine that buy out!). But… as the contact becomes less palatable for everyone (maybe in 5 yrs?) they may be able to find better money for everyone/most.

Also, last year there was speculation that only around 7 or 8 of the 10 schools would need to find spots to dissolve the conference and end the GOR due to other sections of the conference bylaws that had rules for dissolution. I am not an expert in the ACC situation, but I am sure schools are looking for similar loopholes that would require fewer schools (even if it would still take most) to get out of the current deal.
 

HoopsTournament

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Don’t disagree. It must be a pretty rock solid contract otherwise someone would have found a way out.

The B12 GOR is the reason ou/tx are still around (and they only have 3 yrs left on the deal. The ACC has 14! Imagine that buy out!). But… as the contact becomes less palatable for everyone (maybe in 5 yrs?) they may be able to find better money for everyone/most.

Also, last year there was speculation that only around 7 or 8 of the 10 schools would need to find spots to dissolve the conference and end the GOR due to other sections of the conference bylaws that had rules for dissolution. I am not an expert in the ACC situation, but I am sure schools are looking for similar loopholes that would require fewer schools (even if it would still take most) to get out of the current deal.
Equivalent would mean about 10 or 11 would have to vote to dissolve. And I think only teams with SEC or Big 10 invites would do that. There is no financial incentive for others to dissolve the conference. Are there 10 or 11 that are valuable enough? I doubt it.

I do agree that as we get closer to end of contract, that is when we will see movement, but that is a long ways away.
 
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cymonw1980

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TV isn't the only think that matters. If the Big 10 and SEC can create a playoff monopoly and shut out everyone else, the money would be massive.

Also either conference might have to take someone else to make things work. Like can the SEC get FSU and Clemson alone, or do they need to take more to break their grant of rights?
Playoff payouts are primarily TV money. Also, monopolizing the playoff is absolutely the end game but you do that by grouping tv brands to grow revenue beyond what others can get then set all the rules to favor those with money (think P5 v. G5 on steroids). So, tv $ is all that matters in the end since that is what will give those leagues the power they need to set all the rules.

Technically, I don’t think they block anyone from the playoff in the beginning. Just like the group of 5 was not blocked from the playoff or the New Years 6. They will just set rules like paying players directly from the tv revenue and allowing unlimited transfers up from others leagues so even if you identify talent early, they will finish their college career in the b10 or sec since they can get paid huge money by those schools.

Yes, there could be some deals done to break up the ACC if that would work… but I doubt it.

I honestly think the current leagues will cut not add… once they establish salary cap structure, playoff structure, etc I don’t think teams like Rutgers or vandy, or NW will be kept. Could cut them or just leave and form a new conf with the top 24 - 32 brands.
 

Cloneon

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IMO ESPN and Fox will not be in play for the Big12 or Pac12.

Fox is going to be HEAVILY invested in Big10 and 8-10 games/week is probably good. Plus they are going to want to be a player in the 8 or 12 team playoff.

ESPN is going to have to finance the SEC post UT/OU and potential other adds. Plus ESPN is on the hook for the ACC Network until 2036. Even if the ACC falls apart, that $ will be need to pay for any ACC to SEC moves at current dollars.

Seems to me the Big12/Pac12 are going to need NBC/Peacock, CBS/Paramount+, Amazon or Apple+ to step up. This could work out well since the Big12/Pac12 combination is the last conference media package available until 2030's.

The only exception is Notre Dame agreement with NBC is up 2025 (I believe).
Of all the posts, the one I have not yet seen is this:
The P2 expand their rosters and add 2 more games. This will further deplete available athletes for the other leagues, increase the P2's revenue stream, and further distance themselves from the rest. PLEASE B12 be ahead of this play.
 

Cloneon

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Playoff payouts are primarily TV money. Also, monopolizing the playoff is absolutely the end game but you do that by grouping tv brands to grow revenue beyond what others can get then set all the rules to favor those with money (think P5 v. G5 on steroids). So, tv $ is all that matters in the end since that is what will give those leagues the power they need to set all the rules.

Technically, I don’t think they block anyone from the playoff in the beginning. Just like the group of 5 was not blocked from the playoff or the New Years 6. They will just set rules like paying players directly from the tv revenue and allowing unlimited transfers up from others leagues so even if you identify talent early, they will finish their college career in the b10 or sec since they can get paid huge money by those schools.

Yes, there could be some deals done to break up the ACC if that would work… but I doubt it.

I honestly think the current leagues will cut not add… once they establish salary cap structure, playoff structure, etc I don’t think teams like Rutgers or vandy, or NW will be kept. Could cut them or just leave and form a new conf with the top 24 - 32 brands.
Very bold play, but also very risky. I, for one, am not interested in an amateur NFL league. And, two, I doubt the egos of the power schools will stomach sub-500 records. And, finally, the only stability in something this grand would require a parity mechanism (eg draft from a high school talent pool). That's a lot that can go wrong.
 

cymonw1980

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Equivalent would mean about 10 or 11 would have to vote to dissolve. And I think only teams with SEC or Big 10 invites would do that. There is no financial incentive for others to dissolve the conference. Are there 10 or 11 that are valuable enough? I doubt it.

I do agree that as we get closer to end of contract, that is when we will see movement, but that is a long ways away.
I think even the new b12 will be making more than the ACC. So, I do think most will have options to make more money. At some point they will have to choose between staying in a conference just to remain with traditional rivals or end it and leave for more money. To be clear it’s not that the new b12 is more valuable… it’s a really terrible contract that pays far less than the market value.
 

Cloneon

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I think even the new b12 will be making more than the ACC. So, I do think most will have options to make more money. At some point they will have to choose between staying in a conference just to remain with traditional rivals or end it and leave for more money. To be clear it’s not that the new b12 is more valuable… it’s a really terrible contract that pays far less than the market value.
Agree. However, the next contract is the biggie. If the B12 makes a power play and acquires some more major markets, the next contract would very likely be an Apple/Amazon play. If that happens, who the hell cares about standard cable/TV feeds. Streaming is already done at every TV set with an internet connection. It's then like Prime time TV. Just look at the Amazon Prime content / stars they're bringing in. That's the only future of broadcasting IMO, for so many more reasons than just 'advertising'. My gut says the new commissioner not only knows this, but is already putting it into play. I am excited.
 

cymonw1980

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Very bold play, but also very risky. I, for one, am not interested in an amateur NFL league. And, two, I doubt the egos of the power schools will stomach sub-500 records. And, finally, the only stability in something this grand would require a parity mechanism (eg draft from a high school talent pool). That's a lot that can go wrong.
I think it’s bad for the sport but so have all the other moves… just progressively moving toward a product I will have 0 interest in.

That said, it is also about destroying competition. There is likely to be less overall money made by the 24-32 teams compared to the 65 P5. But the individual teams will make more than they do now… this is a win for tv since it reduces their payout (more per team, less overall).

No need to draft… just recruit and set salary caps and put contracts in place. They will only recognize P2 contracts though. They will still procure talent from all other leagues.
 
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isucy86

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Of all the posts, the one I have not yet seen is this:
The P2 expand their rosters and add 2 more games. This will further deplete available athletes for the other leagues, increase the P2's revenue stream, and further distance themselves from the rest. PLEASE B12 be ahead of this play.
Still think guys want playing time and HS recruiting is too inexact for a P2 to monopolize most of the future NFL players. We could see transfer ups/downs between a P2 & remaining schools.

It's easy to view realignment as the seismic shift occurring in college sport. But it could just be a distraction (or maybe preparation by people with more vision than me) for the potential earthquakes on the horizon.

Those earthquakes being:
- Pay for play.
- Employment Status.
- Unionization/Collective Bargaining.
- Revised Title IX. Compliance based on spending vs opportunity.
- Federal Government Intervention (anti-trust)
 

cymonw1980

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Agree. However, the next contract is the biggie. If the B12 makes a power play and acquires some more major markets, the next contract would very likely be an Apple/Amazon play. If that happens, who the hell cares about standard cable/TV feeds. Streaming is already done at every TV set with an internet connection. It's then like Prime time TV. Just look at the Amazon Prime content / stars they're bringing in. That's the only future of broadcasting IMO, for so many more reasons than just 'advertising'. My gut says the new commissioner not only knows this, but is already putting it into play. I am excited.
Yes. When I say “tv” I am referring to the value the team brings from all media… tv, streaming, etc. that is why in 10 yrs (maybe less?) I don’t think Rutgers or even Maryland would be part of the super leagues. They were brought in for cable tv markets (ny/dc) that really do not drive college football interest. They are primarily pro markets.

LA is a little different.. USC is a big deal if they are winning. Rutgers is never a big deal in NY.

I hope that I am wrong and we get to a “power 64” or something like that where ISU gets a seat at the table. But feels more like the media companies will try to minimize the value outside of what they control by dividing top brands from everyone else.

Fox/espn only care about the value they extract from CFB. They don’t care about total value imho. They should if they are looking at the long term… but they are focusing on maximizing current value.
 
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BCClone

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Equivalent would mean about 10 or 11 would have to vote to dissolve. And I think only teams with SEC or Big 10 invites would do that. There is no financial incentive for others to dissolve the conference. Are there 10 or 11 that are valuable enough? I doubt it.

I do agree that as we get closer to end of contract, that is when we will see movement, but that is a long ways away.
And do it without anyone knowing why. OuT lost their votes because they became disinterested parties since they were already talking with the SEC which was against the GOR or bylaws. So it became 6 of 8 that needed to disband without knowledge of other talks
 

SCarolinaCy

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SEC will take whoever they have to take in order to get Clemson and FSU. If they need to take more ACC schools to break the grant of rights, they will.

My Big 10 friends have told me the Big 10 only wants Virginia. Could be wrong, but does Virginia Tech open up any media markets or recruiting grounds that Virginia does not?
Clemson and FSU to Big 10, SEC has the Gamecocks and Florida.
 
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Cyrealist

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Hard disagree here. The ACC payout is paltry and nearly half of SEC/B1G payout (actually $32M vs $54M currently). SEC's annual is climbing while ACC's is locked for 12 more years. ACC simply made a crappy deal.
If a couple of dominos were to fall, the ACC could vote to disband if enough schools have landing spots lined up. Notre Dame could be the first domino.
 

isucy86

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So how you going to break the GOR? Texas and OU wont leave the Big 12 for 1 year of GOR, and you think they will leave 14 years on the table?

That is like $1Billion per school in lost revenue. No one is paying that to leave the ACC.

That GOR is most likely means if say Clemson goes to the SEC, then they forfeit their SEC pay to the ACC until 2036, plus exit fees, and penalties. That means not only would Clemson have to Pay in excess of $100 million in exit fees and penalties, they would also pay all their income from the SEC until 2036. You take the SEC money say $75M per year, compound that by 5-10% annual growth per year. Say they leave in 2025, so 11 years? That would bankrupt any school long before they ever got to 2036.

There is a possibility they only would have to pay the ACC contract Value, say $40M per year compounded by 5-10% That still would be an astronomical loss that no one would pay. But my understanding of GORs is they forfeit their rights, meaning if they go somewhere else whatever they earn they forfeit to the ACC.

That is not going to happen. Unless there is a way to break that GOR, which is possible, but unlikely, because that would defeat the purpose of a GOR.

If anything is going to happen next 3-5 years, it's going to need to be mutual- ACC Schools & ESPN.

The one thing that could break GOR is the growing professionalism of college FB & MBB. If 30% opt out of the professionalism model- we could see GOR revisited.
 

Cyrealist

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TV isn't the only think that matters. If the Big 10 and SEC can create a playoff monopoly and shut out everyone else, the money would be massive.
I may be wrong, but I don't think a two-conference playoff would draw that many viewers. Why should fans of other conferences care? If I want pro-football, I'll just watch the NFL. They're creating semi-pro leagues that have nothing to do with college football.
 

isucy86

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I think this might prevent a closed Super League. Non-P% schools were able to keep the play-off door open.
I just stayed at a Holiday Inn.

Or does some interstate commerce law prohibit the P5 from being a closed system. After all these are mainly public universities.

So does there need to be some system of relegation/promotion based on record?