*** Official #23 BYU vs #10 IOWA STATE Game(Day) Thread ***

[rochclone]

TJ isnt going anywhere. I believe him when he said this is his dream job. Plus, the seeds for him being coach at ISU were sown before Fred became coach. So he is going nowhere.

Now for the 22-8 record......it isnt bad and will always be good for the standards at ISU.

However, what do you think their record would be had Milan been shut down at the start of conference play for the rest of the season? Because I have seen many say that is when things changed.

Now I think Naz Long was a better overall player than Milan and as good of shooter. Back in 2015/16 in Steve Prohm's first year he was saddled with insane expectations. Then Naz had to shut things down after December due to hip surgery. The team went on to win 23 games and make the sweet 16.

What was response on CF.........complete outrage!!! I don't remember Prohm being given quarter or anyone having to "chill with this rollercoaster of emotions". That season 23 wins and a sweet 16 in spite of missing a huge piece of the puzzle was written off as completely underachieving.

So after starting 17-2 and in the top 5 in TJ's 4th year even with the loss of Milan for a handful of games I think this post......



.....is spot on and should be understood.

I think something that is overlooked with the 2015-16 season is that Naz’s decision to shut it down also coincided with Burton becoming eligible. It wasn’t just a complete loss like Milan would be in your example. Secondly, that season was extremely frustrating because Iowa State was 3-9 against Kenpom Top 30 teams.
That season ended up as a “success” solely because they had Iona and Little Rock path to the Sweet 16; although you can only play who is front of you. They no showed against Virginia in the Sweet 16 in Chicago by giving up 29 points to Virginia in the first 10 minutes and falling down 17 points and never getting it below double digits.The same Virginia team that got beat by #10 seed Syracuse two days later.
Candidly I enjoyed nearly none of that season because the expectations were outrageous and because you could feel the window closing with that group of kids. That coupled with at least my feeling that Prohm wasn’t equipped to succeed at this level made for an abysmal experience. So I have probably grown over the last 7 years and feel comfortable that the best is still in front of Iowa State as long as TJ is here and we as fans continue to do our part.

 

[FinalFourCy]

Amazing that team had a better record in the Big 12 playing no defense.

Not really

That’s what happens when there is more talent- 6 guys that made and NBA roster

And they played some defense, just not consistent

 

[not-the-manager]

I think that if we've only fired on all cylinders for a couple of games, maybe those were the flukes. Team is who it is.

Put differently, are we a V8 that's got a couple fouled plugs? Or are we really just a V6?

It's a V8 that's struggling to turn over. Maybe it won't start by March 20. But it was running fine on Saturday. I just think we're overreacting to a 3 point loss to a really good team because ISU got down by so much. KSU is an opportunity to get more in sync, they don't do anything particularly well. Whomever you play in Kansas City will be another such opportunity, an inferior opponent either way. If you win the first game you'll get another crack at BYU, who I still think is due for a clunker, which won't come against Utah. Now, I don't want the team to run the table, but I don't think they'd beat Houston after playing two games in two days anyway. If they go 1-1 in the next two or get blown out by BYU, then we can talk about their ceiling. But there's very little data to suggest it's suddenly a Sweet Sixteen or worse, as some have claimed

 

[awd4cy]

Not really

That’s what happens when there is more talent- 6 guys that made and NBA roster

And they played some defense, just not consistent NBA guys weren’t

Most of those nba guys weren’t just a group of McDonald’s all Americans that landed on our lap. Quite a few were 3 star guys that were not regarded as nba guys and developed into that.

Also, isn’t our adjusted defense since January like in the 40s? That’s basically Fred territory

 

[Cloned4Life]

And the success of a basketball team often is about what the team accomplished during the tournaments. For example, the 2000-2001 squad won the big 12 regular season title. But they lost their first game in the conference tournament and then lost as a 2 seed in the first round. Do people view the season a success because they won the regular season conference title? Maybe some do. But I think most of us would determine the success/failure of the season based on what happens in March

So as the conference tournament and NCAA tournaments approach, I will be 1) enjoying every moment of it and 2) be grateful we have a program where these games are meaningful and fun to watch.

I came back to this post from earlier..

Ranting here a bit. A lot of folks on these boards use terms like “perspective” and “macro” to contextualize perceived overreactions from fans after 1 game or a couple bad games. Fact is, a college basketball season is 5 months long. If we’re judging success/failure of an entire season on a crapshoot win-or-go-home tournament, that’s about as silly of a thing I can think of. The 2000-2001 season was a freaking blast. I, along with all of Cyclone Nation, “enjoyed every moment” of the regular season. We got to see Jamaal Tinsley - one of our best players ever - dominate and amaze game after game - and never lose at Hilton. We had shooters all over the floor. Winning at a top 10 team in Phog Allen and then again in Ames for our 5th straight win against KU. Winning back to back regular season titles was absolutely awesome and an amazing accomplishment, something no other Cyclone team has sniffed. Those dudes were tough as nails, and rarely ever got out-rebounded. I still go back and re-watch some of those old games from 2001. Tinsley is a top 3 player of all-time for me.

That season was absolutely a success, and one of our best teams ever. The Baylor loss in the Big 12 tourney didn’t bother me as much. The loss to Hampton obviously sucked total balls, and will always be on of the big “what ifs” in Iowa State history. So yeah, they ran out of gas, which sucked, but the long grind of a season ride was as memorable as any. That 2 year run was one of the best times to be alive as a Cyclone fan. We got to watch Seneca Wallace in the fall, and Jamaal Tinsley in the winter. And we had Pete Taylor to voice it all for us. I’m honestly getting chills just thinking about it.

This season, I enjoyed the hell out of November, December, and early January. Maui was fun, winning @ Iowa was fun, starting hot in the Big 12 was fun, winning @ Tech was awesome, and beating KU @ home with Curtis Jones splashing 30 footers - doesn’t get any better than that. Since then, it has not been as enjoyable to follow this team. I’m “sports-disappointed” (not “real life” disappointed) in how the team has played and how they’ve responded (or not responded) to adversity. It hasn’t always been a blast following this team. I’m OK with admitting that.

Can they turn it around in KC and the NCAA’s? Yep! Going in a run will certainly help undo some of the disappointment (or hell, maybe all of the disappointment if we were to get to an Elite 8 or Final 4). But because all of these regular season games do in fact matter, we’ve made “going on a run” harder on ourselves due to the seed line.

End rant…

 

[fsanford]

Not really

That’s what happens when there is more talent- 6 guys that made and NBA roster

And they played some defense, just not consistent

And people want to to comment about losing to OSU, but that bunch lost to a 3-15 Texas Tech team that year.. Baylor beat them by 9 at Hilton. Win either of those 2 you tie for the top.

Big 12 was also weird... OU was the only team that made hay in the Tourney,
3rd Seeded ISU, 3rd Seeded Baylor, lost in first round, 2 seed KU lost in 2nd round.

but to say that this team is close to the talent level of that team is not even debateable. Throw in the fact that teams could not re-tool as easily back then, would argue the 2014 team was a huge under achiever.

 

[NorthCyd]

There's only one game left in the regular season. This team is who it is.

And realistically, which team are we, the one we saw back in December? Or the one that we saw last night?

I'd say adjust expectations and just see how it goes. Final Four ain't happening, but still could be some redemption if we can avoid the 4 line.

Silly thing to say. Many teams worse than ISU have made the final four. It's about luck and matchups. Obviously the odds don't seem as likely as they did when we thought they were a top 5 team, but it can still happen. Just keep making the tournament every year with decent teams and eventually that magical run can happen.

 

[madguy30]

Silly thing to say. Many teams worse than ISU have made the final four. It's about luck and matchups. Obviously the odds don't seem as likely as they did when we thought they were a top 5 team, but it can still happen. Just keep making the tournament every year with decent teams and eventually that magical run can happen.

Repeating but if everything were to happen 'as is' the NCAA tourney wouldn't be the circus that it is and Duke, KU etc would have way more titles or at least Final Four appearances.

 

[Cloned4Life]

I tend to stay away from the game threads after tip-off, but I'll check in occasionally and did last night as the BYU lead grew. There were absolutely posts stating the team has no heart, that specific players are a waste of time and resources, that the coaching staff is horrible and some coaches (at least one) should be fired. I understand that people post regrettable things in the heat of the moment, but some of it does carry over, especially after a loss. There can certainly be criticism and frustration expressed. Some is just over the top, imo.

Respectfully, all game threads for all teams are like this. They should never, ever be referenced. Ever. They are not representative of rational thought, in any way shape and/or form. And the ones that say the extra stupid stuff - block/ignore them, instantly.

 

[dahliaclone]

It seems like some have a sense that we can’t close out seasons and/or teams have a late season fade. I honestly wasn’t sure so decided to look it up. Below are Feb/March games since Fred’s first year.

Hoiberg:
2010-11: 2-7 (no postseason)
2011-12: 6-3 (NCAA round of 32)
2012-13: 7-4 (NCAA round of 32)
2013-14: 8-3 (NCAA Sweet 16)
2014-15: 6-4 (NCAA first round)
TOTAL: 29-11
First two seasons: 8-10
Last two seasons: 14-7

Prohm:
2015-16: 5-5 (NCAA Sweet 16)
2016-17: 7-2 (NCAA round of 32)
2017-18: 1-8 (no postseason)
2018-19: 4-6 (NCAA first round)
2019-20: 3-8 (no postseason)
2020-21: 0-12 (no postseason)
TOTAL: 20-41
First two seasons: 12-7
Last two seasons: 3-20

Otz:
2021-22: 4-6 (NCAA Sweet 16)
2022-23: 3-6 (NCAA first round)
2023-24: 8-3 (NCAA Sweet 16)
2024-25: 5-4 (TBD)
TOTAL: 20-19
First two seasons: 7-12
Last two seasons: 13-7

A few things leap out at me looking at this:

• At first blush looking at Otz at 20-19 overall I bet many are thinking ‘yeah that’s not great…’ which overall maybe not. But split the numbers between first two years and last year and this year and it’s vastly different.
• I must have forced myself to forget a lot of the Prohm years. I didn’t remember we only went to one Sweet 16 (his first year with Fred players) and missed postseason three times in his six years.
• While this year we are at 5-4 you just can’t forget we’ve been down key starters for these months.
• Even with players out this season, Otz’ record the last two years is pretty decent and right with how Fred was his last two seasons at ISU.
• The mess that Otz was left with post Prohm…it’s insane he’s is going to take us to four straight NCAA tournaments in his first four years.
• Otz has already tied both Hoiberg and Prohm in amount of Sweet 16 appearances in three years than they did over 11 seasons combined.
• I’m not sure if Otz can be said to have teams that all fade in Feb and March. First two seasons maybe? I can’t agree with last year. This year if we finish 6-4 I don’t know…given injuries that’s a tough one.
• Obviously this is a strange exercise because every season is different and every coach is different, etc.
• I don’t know what my point was entirely for this more than just curiosity. Maybe what I found is that in general as a program we stumble a bit in these months but I think that happens to a lot of good teams that do great things. Thought I’d share.

 

[cyclones500]

It seems like some have a sense that we can’t close out seasons and/or teams have a late season fade. I honestly wasn’t sure so decided to look it up. Below are Feb/March games since Fred’s first year.

Hoiberg:
2010-11: 2-7 (no postseason)
2011-12: 6-3 (NCAA round of 32)
2012-13: 7-4 (NCAA round of 32)
2013-14: 8-3 (NCAA Sweet 16)
2014-15: 6-4 (NCAA first round)
TOTAL: 29-11
First two seasons: 8-10
Last two seasons: 14-7

Prohm:
2015-16: 5-5 (NCAA Sweet 16)
2016-17: 7-2 (NCAA round of 32)
2017-18: 1-8 (no postseason)
2018-19: 4-6 (NCAA first round)
2019-20: 3-8 (no postseason)
2020-21: 0-12 (no postseason)
TOTAL: 20-41
First two seasons: 12-7
Last two seasons: 3-20

Otz:
2021-22: 4-6 (NCAA Sweet 16)
2022-23: 3-6 (NCAA first round)
2023-24: 8-3 (NCAA Sweet 16)
2024-25: 5-4 (TBD)
TOTAL: 20-19
First two seasons: 7-12
Last two seasons: 13-7

A few things leap out at me looking at this:

• At first blush looking at Otz at 20-19 overall I bet many are thinking ‘yeah that’s not great…’ which overall maybe not. But split the numbers between first two years and last year and this year and it’s vastly different.
• I must have forced myself to forget a lot of the Prohm years. I didn’t remember we only went to one Sweet 16 (his first year with Fred players) and missed postseason three times in his six years.
• While this year we are at 5-4 you just can’t forget we’ve been down key starters for these months.
• Even with players out this season, Otz’ record the last two years is pretty decent and right with how Fred was his last two seasons at ISU.
• The mess that Otz was left with post Prohm…it’s insane he’s is going to take us to four straight NCAA tournaments in his first four years.
• Otz has already tied both Hoiberg and Prohm in amount of Sweet 16 appearances in three years than they did over 11 seasons combined.
• I’m not sure if Otz can be said to have teams that all fade in Feb and March. First two seasons maybe? I can’t agree with last year. This year if we finish 6-4 I don’t know…given injuries that’s a tough one.
• Obviously this is a strange exercise because every season is different and every coach is different, etc.
• I don’t know what my point was entirely for this more than just curiosity. Maybe what I found is that in general as a program we stumble a bit in these months but I think that happens to a lot of good teams that do great things. Thought I’d share.

Excellent research.

As frustrating as the past 6-ish weeks have been, and some nagging tendencies (turnovers, offensive staleness, lead swings, inability to close) it's good have some perspective about whether there's trend of fading.

Another element that would require deeper dive, we're using strictly W-L without considering strength of opponent during the stretches. Not sure if that'd be favorable or not for this season's stretch vs. previous years.

 

[CascadeClone]

The defense was really outstanding for most of the game.

I want to believe Iowa State is making a deep run this year, and the metrics say they can. It's just been awhile since I saw them play with any kind of consistency that you could point to and say that's what a final four team does.

100% agree with the bolded, best defense of the season probably.

Also agree they CAN make a deep run. I don't really expect it though. Too many exploitable weaknesses. Maybe they will get a Baylor-esque set of opponents - all double digit seeds right into the E8.

 

[CascadeClone]

Most of those nba guys weren’t just a group of McDonald’s all Americans that landed on our lap. Quite a few were 3 star guys that were not regarded as nba guys and developed into that.

Also, isn’t our adjusted defense since January like in the 40s? That’s basically Fred territory

Posted in other thread:

On Torvik, ISU is 30th for the season overall. (offense)
Before Jan 1, they were 4th.
But since Jan 1, they are 59th.

For reference the defense-
Before Jan 1, 42nd.
After Jan 1, 5th.

 

[quasistellar]

I’ve just come to the conclusion I’m ready for the ncaa tourney. Play some different teams, maybe it’ll ignite a fire offensively. We’re still 24th in AdjO and up to 7th in AdjD. Those are winning numbers.

Bring on March madness! I’ll take an early exit in the big 12 for a S16 chance.

Hell at this point if the guys are THAT beat up or tired just play the bench guys on Saturday. Everything besides the NCAA tourney is meaningless at this point anyway. Get Rock, Hawley, kelderman, indrusitis and fish as the starting five.

I can't imagine there's much to improve on with the normal starters. They are what they are at this point.

 

[cyclones500]

Also agree they CAN make a deep run. I don't really expect it though.

Similar projection has been mentioned by others, and I'm in that category, too.

Then it makes me think: I wonder how many teams over the years in ISU's (current) general seed range that were "capable of a run, but don't look the part," then do it anyway.

Of course it works the other way, too, plenty of 3/4 vicinity teams become the "hot pick" and they flame early.

ISU seems capable/"incapable" of either. But probably not an either/or, either.

 

[CoachHines3]

Hell at this point if the guys are THAT beat up or tired just play the bench guys on Saturday. Everything besides the NCAA tourney is meaningless at this point anyway. Get Rock, Hawley, kelderman, indrusitis and fish as the starting five.

I can't imagine there's much to improve on with the normal starters. They are what they are at this point.

I mean, there is a little at play with seeding on Saturday so you still wanna win

 

[CoachHines3]

The NCAA tourney is weird. Runs happen when you least expect it.

Look at NC State last year:


Lost their last 4 of the reg season and limped into the ACC tourney. Went on a massive run to the final 4 lol

 

[quasistellar]

Long and athletic teams are kryptonite for this team. The guards struggle vs length, and the bigs struggle vs athletic guys in the paint. Athletic includes footspeed too - the only guy on this team I'd call fast is Keyshon.

It was the same last year vs Illinois; talent and length were too much to overcome with skill. Close though.

That goes under the radar a lot for this team. Our bigs can barely leave their feet. I'd be very curious what their actual verts are, as I never really see them jump.

If they don't give maximum effort they can get smoked so easily, as we saw in that 15 minute stretch yesterday.

 

[Klubber]

The end of the 1st OT was a major issue with simply not getting the ball to Jefferson until too late in the clock. That probably falls on Tamin as that pass needs to go to JJ at 4 or 5 seconds not at 2.2 seconds.

The end of the 2nd OT Milan had his man beat with 10 seconds left. If he takes another dribble he likely scores but then who knows if we can defend in the last 7 seconds.

I think the late games X's and O's can certainly improve and put guys in a better position to succeed. But I think some of the issues last night were also on the execution side.

I agree with the execution part. We were way too tentative in critical moments late in the game. Guys have to be aggressive. The refs were calling touch fouls in the OT's as well. No reason we should've been settling for jumpers there. We needed to be attacking and taking it to the rim.

 

[Klubber]

The NCAA tourney is weird. Runs happen when you least expect it.

Look at NC State last year:
View attachment 144571

Lost their last 4 of the reg season and limped into the ACC tourney. Went on a massive run to the final 4 lol

Conversely, BYU similar to this year, got hot late in the season and crashed and burned in the Tourney. They were a trendy Sweet 16 or even beyond pick.

And there are countless examples of this both ways as well. You can't predict it regardless of how a team's playing late in the season.