NFL Runningbacks: Draft high or scour the wire?

[ISUFan22]

Good clip from Peter King's MMQB article yesterday...(great read all around, as usual)

SI.com - Writers - Peter King: Wes Welker leads long list of heroes in thrilling Week 12 - Monday November 26, 2007 10:50AM

2. I think I don't care how good Darren McFadden looked last Friday, and if you saw how he steamrolled LSU in Baton Rouge, you know he looked like a future star in the NFL. Probably. I wouldn't use a high first-round pick on him. Of the top 50 running backs in the NFL entering this weekend (ranked by rushing yards), 30 were not first-round picks. In my team rankings this week, I've got New England, Indianapolis, Dallas, Green Bay and Pittsburgh as my top five. The Patriots (11-0) have a running game by committee. Tony Dungy of the 9-2 Colts has given CFL refugee Kenton Keith 9.0 carries a game. The 10-1 Packers have had rushing efforts of 104, 55, 119, 88 and 101 yards from Ryan Grant in the last month. Grant, an undrafted free-agent by the Giants in 2005, entered camp fifth on the Giants' depth chart this summer, then was traded to Green Bay for a sixth-round draft choice. Dallas (10-1) has Julius Jones and Marion Barber III manning the running game. Jones was the 43rd player picked in the draft when he came out, Barber the 109th. Undrafted college free-agent Willie Parker -- who couldn't get consistent playing time at North Carolina -- has 3,624 yards over the last two years and 10 games for the 7-3 Steelers. More than any position in football, running back is the one you can find players from the most disparate sources.

 

[cmoneyr]

As a Bronco's fan I'll say neither, mid-round draft picks are our bread and butter. Terrell Davis, Tatum Bell, Clinton Portis, Mike Anderson, Olandis Gary.

 

[clones_jer]

As a Bronco's fan I'll say neither, mid-round draft picks are our bread and butter. Terrell Davis, Tatum Bell, Clinton Portis, Mike Anderson, Olandis Gary.

keep it going: Quinton Griffen, Andre Hall

and if memory serves Ron Dayne even had a good game or two while he was on the roster right?

Sounds like Cecil Sapp might get the rock this weekend.

 

[ISUFan22]

When I said scour the wire, I was referring to all backs not in the high end of the draft.

My Cowboys have landed a nice dou without selling the farm.

Nothing like the Broncos though. That's just a running back factory out there.

 

[ceeboe]

Most high round backs go to crappy teams with no line and high expectations! Some high round backs aren't even the best backs in the draft (Lynch over Perterson).

Bush was and exception, but still hasn't been marvelous by any means!

QB's seem to be the same thing. Raiders are actually playing it smart and letting the guy learn. Sure the Titans sat Young for half and year and then let him run over everyone, but he still wasn't productive as some of the other greats. Take Tom Brady, this guy sat and learned, never played and has done well. Aaron Rogers will be a stud after Farve

 

[LindenCy]

Honestly, I think CBs, OL, and DL are the most important in the first round, other than the occasional franchise QB

 

[ISUFan22]

Right on about Bush. Early and really for most of last season, the Texans were absolutely ripped apart by fans/media for not taking Bush. Now? Not so much since Bush hasn't produced to his potential in '07 and Ferguson has progressed nicely this season.

It's all a crapshoot at any position.

You mention QB...look at all the current starters, some of the kicking butt out there, that were nobodies on draft day.

Folks are shying away from taking a QB in the first few picks as well. It's getting to the point that few teams want to be in the top 5 or even top 10 for the huge risk involved.

 

[j_crow]

Well...it's hard to say. For all of the Ryan Grants and (insert Broncos running back here)'s, there are probably 10 mid-to-late rounders that don't pan out. I'd say you have to spend a high draft pick on a running back unless you've got a solid veteran that can hold down the fort in the meantime; the running game is just too important to gamble on...

 

[j_crow]

Right on about Bush. Early and really for most of last season, the Texans were absolutely ripped apart by fans/media for not taking Bush. Now? Not so much since Bush hasn't produced to his potential in '07 and Ferguson has progressed nicely this season.

Heh...I don't know if the Texans are off the hook with that pick quite yet. The combination of their below-average running game and the fact that Williams hasn't exactly been a world-beater for them still makes me question the choice...

 

[ISUFan22]

Certainly not off the hook, but not looking like nearly as bad of a move as it did last year.

 

[clones_jer]

Most high round backs go to crappy teams with no line and high expectations! Some high round backs aren't even the best backs in the draft (Lynch over Perterson).

Bush was and exception, but still hasn't been marvelous by any means!

QB's seem to be the same thing. Raiders are actually playing it smart and letting the guy learn. Sure the Titans sat Young for half and year and then let him run over everyone, but he still wasn't productive as some of the other greats. Take Tom Brady, this guy sat and learned, never played and has done well. Aaron Rogers will be a stud after Farve

Wow on the Rogers quote ... I'd Cybookie against that happening.

Lynch may end up being better than Bush. (Peterson is a world-beater). Lynch is (well, was up until the injury) producing very well for a very poor Buffalo team. He's their only option (much like Minn & Peterson) and while not rushing for 300 yard per game he has put up good numbers.

 

[ceeboe]

Folks are shying away from taking a QB in the first few picks as well. It's getting to the point that few teams want to be in the top 5 or even top 10 for the huge risk involved.

Espcially for the huge payout on some of these guys!

 

[j_crow]

Wow on the Rogers quote ... I'd Cybookie against that happening.

Why do I feel like this is going to be a common saying around here? :wink:

 

[clones_jer]

Why do I feel like this is going to be a common saying around here? :wink:

I'd totally Cybookie that will happen ... :wacko::twitcy::spinny:

 

[mwitt]

I think it depends on the personnel of a team. How often do you see a no name RB really emerge on a bad team? Adrian Peterson, while maybe the most talented RB in the NFL, benefits from having the best left side on the offensive line in the league.

While Willie Parker went undrafted, he went to a team with a very good line and a very good mentor in Jerome Bettis. Denver is indeed a RB factory, but they always have a good line. Rueben Droughns rushed for 1500 yards for them, and he was a fullback. He hasn't come close to duplicating that in Cleveland or New York.

Teams who draft RBs in the first round do so out of need. Teams who end up with a diamond in the rough in the late rounds or free agency don't have any pressure on that position. It allows the player time to mature, and if it doesn't come to fruition, then it's no big deal.

While there are a decent amount of RBs who were drafted in the first round amount to nothing, there's a whole lot more who were taken late or in free agency that amounted to nothing.

 

[ISUFan22]

I'd totally Cybookie that will happen ... :wacko::twitcy::spinny:

This thread is so Old Mutual.

 

[ISUFan22]

I think it depends on the personnel of a team. How often do you see a no name RB really emerge on a bad team? Adrian Peterson, while maybe the most talented RB in the NFL, benefits from having the best left side on the offensive line in the league.

While Willie Parker went undrafted, he went to a team with a very good line and a very good mentor in Jerome Bettis. Denver is indeed a RB factory, but they always have a good line. Rueben Droughns rushed for 1500 yards for them, and he was a fullback. He hasn't come close to duplicating that in Cleveland or New York.

Teams who draft RBs in the first round do so out of need. Teams who end up with a diamond in the rough in the late rounds or free agency don't have any pressure on that position. It allows the player time to mature, and if it doesn't come to fruition, then it's no big deal.

While there are a decent amount of RBs who were drafted in the first round amount to nothing, there's a whole lot more who were taken late or in free agency that amounted to nothing.

Hey...look at Troy Hambrick. He was a nobody and had a bad line. Look at what he did?

Oh....wait...

 

[superfan]

It totally depends on the offensive scheme. Teams like Denver (and lately, Green Bay) find success with various RB's more because they implement the Zone Blocking Scheme. It's a system that, by definition, doesn't depend on having a world-beating running back, just one who can read the zone and make one cut and get upfield.

While the point King makes is valid, you've also got to consider that the statistics aren't totally telling in this case. Go look at the NFL Draft's history page. On an average year, you'll see about 20 RB's taken over the 7 rounds. 2 or 3 of those are taken in the first round. Running back is a position where you don't necessarily have to be the world's best to start, and there's really not that big of a drop-off in talent between rounds 1 and 3.

 

[superfan]

Let's look at the top of the depth charts for the NFL (Courtesy NFL.com):

Format: Team - Player - Round Taken

49ers - Frank Gore - Round 3
Bears - Cedric Benson - Round 1
Bengals - Rudi Johnson - Round 4
Bills - Anthony Thomas - Round 2 / Marshawn Lynch - Round 1
Broncos - Travis Henry - Round 2 / Selvin Young - Undrafted
Browns - Jamal Lewis - Round 1
Buccaneers - Earnest Graham - Undrafted / (Cadillac Williams - Round 1)
Cardinals - Edgerrin James - Round 1
Chargers - LaDainian Tomlinson - Round 1
Chiefs - Larry Johnson - Round 1
Colts - Joseph Addai - Round 1
Cowboys - Julius Jones - Round 2 / Marion Barber - Round 4
Dolphins - Jesse Chatman - Undrafted / (Ronnie Brown - Round 1)
Eagles - Brian Westbrook - Round 3
Falcons - Warrick Dunn - Round 1
Giants - Brandon Jacobs - Round 4 / Reuben Droughns - Round 3
Jaguars - Fred Taylor - Round 1 / Maurice Jones-Drew - Round 2
Jets - Thomas Jones - Round 1
Lions - Tatem Bell - Round 2 / Kevin Jones - Round 1
Packers - Ryan Grant - Undrafted
Panthers - DeShaun Foster - Round 2 / DeAngelo Williams - Round 1
Patriots - Laurence Maroney - Round 1
Raiders - LaMont Jordan - Round 2
Rams - Stephen Jackson - Round 1
Ravens - Willis McGahee - Round 1
Redskins - Clinton Portis - Round 2
Saints - Reggie Bush - Round 1 / Deuce McCallister - Round 1
Seahawks - Shaun Alexander - Round 1 / Maurice Morris - Round 2
Steelers - Willie Parker - Undrafted
Texans - Ron Dayne - Round 1
Titans - LenDale White - Round 2
Vikings - Adrian Peterson - Round 1 / Chester Taylor - Round 6

Of the 32 NFL teams, 27 have first-day picks manning the starting role (29 if you count Cadillac and Brown, who are injured) There are only four undrafted RB's at the top of the depth charts, while 21 teams utilize a former first-round pick. Sure, you can find some late-round gems, but the bottom line is, if you want a starting RB, you better be willing to at least spend a first-day pick on him.

 

[ISUFan22]

Excellent work.