NCAA Tournament Preview/Predictions/Results

[Judoka]

Its almost tournament time in St. Louis. My predictions are below. If we wrestle to my predictions we'll end up with about 20 points, which would put us in the range of 20-25 as a team. Losing Spangler to yet another concussion and Ward to a murderous draw at Big 12s pretty much killed our chances at a decent team finish. With those two we were looking more like 8-10 as a team finish.

Live stats on Trackwrestling

Live Blog from ISU AD (will update with link once available)

@CycloneWR will be posting results and updates

Brackets are available here

Times/TV
Thursday, March 15th
Session 1: 11 AM (ESPN3)
Session 2: 6:30 PM (ESPN3)

Friday, March 16th
Session 3: 10 AM (ESPN3/ESPNU)
Session 4 (Semifinals): 6 PM (ESPN3/ESPNU)

Saturday, March 17th
Session 5 (Medal Round): 10 AM (ESPN3/ESPNU)
Session 6 (Finals): 6:30 PM (ESPN/ESPN3)

Iowa State had a poor showing at the Big 12s, but other than an injury (Spangler) and a long-shot (Ward) it didn't actually end up costing anything in terms of qualifiers or seeding. We have five wrestlers in St. Louis.

125: Ryak Finch (14-8)
141: Luke Goettl (11-11)
165: Andrew Sorenson (26-2) seeded #3
184: Boaz Beard (10-5)
HWT: Matt Gibson (25-8) seeded #12

 

[Judoka]

125:
US Ryak Finch (14-8)) vs. #5 Nicholas Bedelyon (Kent State) 29-4

Ryak’s first round draw is tough, but not insurmountable. They have two common opponents and Bedelyon’s win over Perrelli makes me think this is a likely loss for Finch. Ryak just hasn’t shown the ability this year to beat top 10 caliber wrestlers. However, the coaching staff has been very good in the past at putting together a game plan for matches, so if Ryak is going to score an upset, its probably going to be in this match. An upset would likely give him a very favorable second round matchup against #12 seed Steve Bonnano of Hofstra.

Common opponents:

Nicholas Bedelyon (KSU) DEC Frank Perrelli (Cornell) 9-4 /  Frank Perrelli (Cornell) MD Ryak Finch (ISU) 0-9
Nicholas Bedelyon (KSU) DEC David White (Army) 4-2 / Ryak Finch (ISU) DEC David White (Army) 8-1
Alan Waters (Missouri) MD Nicholas Bedelyon (KSU) 1-12 / Alan Waters (Missouri) MD Ryak Finch (ISU) 4-13 / Alan Waters (Missouri) DEC Ryak Finch (ISU) 0-4

Assuming things go to seed, Ryak will face Tyler Iwamura in the first round of wrestlebacks. This is a very winnable match and I see Ryak likely ending the day 1-1 and still alive.

US Ryak Finch (14-8)) vs. US Tyler Iwamura (Cal State Bakersfield) 23-9

Common opponents:

Pat Rollins (Oregon State) FALL Tyler Iwamura (CSUB) 4:23 / Pat Rollins (Oregon State) DEC Tyler Iwamura (CSUB) 2-3/ Ryak Finch (ISU) DEC Pat Rollins (Oregon State) 8-1
Tyler Iwamura (CSUB) DEC Dalton Miller (Arizona State) 6-4 / Ryak Finch MD Dalton Miller (Arizona State) 11-3

With a win there Finch would likely have Jon Morrison of Oklahoma State in the next round on Friday morning. Finch is 1-1 against Morrison so far this year. So that would be a tough, but winnable, matchup. A win there would likely give him #10 Nick Megaludis of Penn State in the Round of 16.

All in all I think Finch has a great chance to go 2-2, he’ll need to wrestle better than he did at the Big 12s, but the same could be said for all of our wrestlers. A give Finch about a 10% chance to get hot and AA.

 

[Judoka]

141:
US Luke Goettl (11-11) vs. #8 Darius Little (North Carolina State) - (33-10)

Goettl drew a very tough first round match. With three common opponents, all three were wins for Little and losses for Goettl. While Goettl certainly is capable of beating anyone, I put this down as a likely loss.

Common Opponents:

Darius Little (NSCU) DEC Nick Dardanes (Minn) 7-3 / Nick Dardanes (Minn) DEC Luke Goettl (ISU) 2-3
Darius Little (NSCU) DEC Zach Neibert (VT) 6-2 / DEC Zach Neibert (VT) DEC Luke Goettl 8-9
Darius Little (NSCU) DEC DEC Josh Kindig (Okla) 5-3 / Josh Kindig (Okla) MD Luke Goettl (ISU) 4-12 /  Josh Kindig (Okla) MD Luke Goettl (ISU) 3-11 / Josh Kindig (Okla) FALLLuke Goettl (ISU) 1:57

Assuming things go to seed, Luke will face Kevin Fanta of Northern Illinois (15-5) in the first round of wrestlebacks. They have no common opponents but Goettl placed higher than Fanta at Midlands in December. As far as I can tell Fanta only has one match against a ranked wrestler all year, a 3-7 loss to #12 seed Tyler Small back in December. This is a very must win match and I see Goettl likely ending the day 1-1 and still alive.

A win against Fanta would like give Finch either Michell Port of Edinburo (27-8) or Stephen Dulton of Lehigh (19-5), who are both beatable. That would likely give Goettl Matthew Mariacher of American (23-7) in the round of 16.

All in all I think Goettl has a great chance to go 2-2. However, Goettl has been streaky. So I also would give him about a 10% chance to go 0-2 and about a 20% chance to AA.

 

[Judoka]

165:
#3 Andrew Sorenson (26-2) vs. US Joe Booth (Drexel) (24-5)

Sorenson drew into the best possible position, especially given his loss at Big 12s. Booth will be a tough match but after that Sorenson has pretty clear sailing until the semis.

Why do I say Booth is a tough match? Well, to start, Booth beat Sorenson 12-3 at NCAAs in 2010, knocking Sorenson out of the tournament. Of Booth’s five losses, three are to the #2, #6, and #7 seeds in the tournament, one is to Ben Jordan from Wisconsin (that he avenged, so both he and Sorenson have gone 1-1 with Jordan this year), and the last was an upset loss in triple overtime in the finals of his qualifier. Needless to say, Booth is a very good wrestler. However, Sorenson is a great wrestler, and as long as he is back to form I see no reason why he shouldn't get a win here. However, if he is going to lose before the semi-finals I think it will happen in this match.

Common opponents:

Joe Booth (Drexel) DEC Alex Smith (Army) 9-3 / Andrew Sorenson (ISU) FALL Alex Smith (Army) 3:42
Joe Booth (Drexel) DEC Tristan Warner (OD) 3-0 / Tristan Warner (OD) DEC Joe Booth (Drexel) TB-2 1-3 / Andrew Sorenson (ISU) DEC Tristan Warner (OD) 5-3
Ben Jordan (Wisc) DEC Joe Booth (Drexel) 0-5 / Joe Booth (Drexel) SV Ben Jordan 3-1 /  Ben Jordan (Wisc) DEC Andrew Sorenson (ISU) 4-8 / Andrew Sorenson (ISU) DEC Ben Jordan (Wisc) 3-2

His second round opponent will be either Marshall Pepperman of Cornell (26-15), who he tech falled in the dual a month ago, or Pierce Harger of Northwestern, who he has not wrestled against this year. Both are of those wrestlers are unranked. A win there would likely give him #6 Peter Yates, who he beat 17-4 at the National Duals. He then would run into #2 Shane Onufer of Wyoming in the semifinals.

I think Sorenson gets 3 wins to start the tournament. After that it is tough to guess. If he is back to his early season form I think he places no worse than 3rd. If he is hesitant and unaggressive he might end up closer to 8th. I give him about a 90% chance of AA and about a 33% chance of making the finals. Sorenson not AAing for any reason other than injury would be a very poor showing.

 

[Judoka]

184:
US Boaz Beard (10-5) vs US Victor Avery (Edinboro) 23-13

Beard got lucky and drew another unseeded wrestler in the first round. Of their four common opponents, one beat them both, one lost to them both, and the other two beat Avery but lost to Beard. I think Beard gets a win here.

Common opponents:

Steve Bosak (Cornell) FALL Victor Avery (Edin) 3:00 / Steve Bosak (Cornell) FALL Boaz Beard (ISU) 1:07
Victor Avery (Edin) DEC Billy Curling (OD) 4-2 / Boaz Beard (ISU) DEC Billy Curling (OD) 10-5
Erich Schmiditke (Okla) DEC Victor Avery (Edin) 2-6 / Boaz Beard (ISU) DEC Erich Schmiditke (Okla) 7-4 / Boaz Beard (ISU) SV Erich Schmiditke (Okla) 8-6
John Dickson (VT) DEC Victor Avery (Edin) 6-7 / Boaz Beard (ISU) DEC John Dickson (VT) 11-8

A first round win for Beard will likely result in a second round matchup with #3 Ben Bennett of Central Michigan (30-3). While Beard certainly has a chance here, he tends to struggle to score against elite wrestlers so I put it down as a loss.


Common opponents:

Ryan Loder (UNI) DEC Ben Bennett (CMich) 1-3 / Ben Bennett (CMich DEC Ryan Loder (UNI) 6-3 / Ryan Loder (UNI) DEC Boaz Beard (ISU) 0-1
Ben Bennett (CMich) MD Billy Curling (OD) 8-0 /  Boaz Beard (ISU) DEC Billy Curling (OD) 10-5

Now to the bad part, a loss here would likely put Beard up against Ryan Loder (UNI) or Grant Gambrell (Iowa), which would be just about the toughest match in the wrestlebacks. For this reason I think going 1-2 is a distinct possibility for Beard. But if he can win that match I think he has a decent chance to AA. Overall I’d give Beard about a 20% chance to AA.

 

[Judoka]

HWT:
#12 Matt Gibson (25-8) vs. US Peter Capone (Ohio State) (14-15)

Capone is better than his 14-15 record indicates, but Gibson should have no problem getting a win.

Common Opponents:

Peter Capone (OSU) MD Matt Tourdot (OD) 13-2 / Matt Gibson (ISU) MD Matt Tourdot (OD) 13-1
Peter Capone (OSU) W TB (Riding Time) Ernest James (Edin) 2-1 / Ernest James (Edin) FALL Matt Gibson (ISU) 2:52
Clayton Jack (Oregon State) FALL Peter Capone (OSU) 6:59 / Clayton Jack (Oregon State) MD Matt Gibson (ISU) 1-9
Tony Nelson (Minn) DEC Peter Capone (OSU) 0-2 / Tony Nelson (Minn) FALL Peter Capone (OSU) 2:46 / Tony Nelson (Minn) DEC Matt Gibson (ISU) 0-4
Peter Capone (OSU) DEC Levi Cooper (ASU) 5-2 / Levi Cooper (ASU) DEC Matt Gibson (ISU) 1-4
Alan Gelogaev (OkState) DEC Peter Capone (OSU) 2-6 / Alan Gelogaev (OkState) DEC Matt Gibson (ISU) 3-9 / Alan Gelogaev (OkState) MD Matt Gibson (ISU) 1-13

The first round win will likely give Gibson Bobby Telford of Iowa in the second round. Telford beat Gibson 3-9 in the dual in December. Both wrestlers have gotten better but I think Gibson probably ends the day 1-1. However, the wrestlebacks line up nicely for him to make a run at R12 or better. I think Gibson finishes the tournament 3-2 with about a 33% chance of AA.

 

[Judoka]

I looked more closely at Booth. He is 4th in RPI and 13th in the final coach's ranking. 7-5 against other qualifiers. No wonder he is a tough matchups. I really hope Andrew wrestled back to form and not like he did at Big XIIs.

 

[buf87]

I was surprised that Booth did not get a seed. Similiar to the Brown of Old Dominion match with Reader a couple years ago qand that didn't turn out so well.

 

[Judoka]

I am guessing his loss in the CAA finals cost him a #10-12 seed. Sorenson has enough of a resume this year that one loss didn't hurt him much. Booth doesn't.

 

[Judoka]

Only two more hours until they clear the mats! My expectation for this first round is that we go 3-2 with losses from Finch and Goettl to start and then going 3-0 from Sorenson, Beard, and Gibson.

 

[Judoka]

Penn State Wrestling Club also does a very good job of maintaining up to the latest match brackets with a vastly cleaner interface than trackwrestling. Trackwrestling is still preferable to see live in match scoring though.

 

[Judoka]

Almost time! Finch is match 15 so he should be up very quickly.

 

[Judoka]

Clearing the mats!

Remember you can watch the action on ESPN3.

 

[Judoka]

Finch is up. Regretably not on one of the mats that ESPN3 is filming.

 

[Judoka]

Takedown Finch!

 

[Judoka]

Finch up 2-0 to start the second period.

 

[Judoka]

Finch taken down to his back. Down 5-2 with a minute left in the second.

 

[Judoka]

Turned. Down 8-2.

 

[Judoka]

Finch loses 13-2 to the #5 seed.

 

[Judoka]

Iwaruma lost 3-6. Finch will have him in the wrestlebacks.