Jamie Pollard preaches "Doomsday" about College Athletics and the NIL

[cyclone1209]

The NCAA has selectively enforced rules and certainly shown a lot of favoritism. But I don't think that is why the landscape is such a mess. I place this blame on the conferences and some individual schools. Right now, the SEC and Big10 are more important than the NCAA.

I think Greg Sankey of the SEC has done more permanent damage to college sports than anyone else, including the ncaa.

He will soon to start to realize, that a "super league" concept pisses all over the history of college sports and what has made it so awesome for the fans.

 

[1SEIACLONE]

I get we don’t want to be a G5 team, but what’s the path from being a P4 team to being a G5 team?

Is it that Iowa State will leave the Big 12 on its own? That it will be kicked out of the Big 12? That in 5-10 years the Big 10 and SEC will break away with a few other teams and the remaining teams will effectively be G5? And if it’s the last one, will fully funding the revenue sharing really play a huge role? Or will it be more like the more recent round of expansion where it was about markets and fanbase size and demographics?

Totally depends on what the B10 and SEC do in the future. ISU will never leave the conference on their own that would put them in a worse situation down the road then what they are in currently. Think of Washington St. and Oregon St.
So one of two things are going to happen, either the B10 and SEC realize that they are getting rich under the current system, and it makes no sense for either conference to expand again. The money may not be there for another expansion process and keep everyone where they are currently at money wise. Or this NFL light super league is formed, with many of the B10 and SEC schools joining it, then they will fill in with the ACC, B12 and ND. The question is if that happens, how many schools will be in this new league. 40 or so, ISU is in trouble, up to 50 we should be ok. Its all on the B10 and SEC

 

[Die4Cy]

I think if the "Super league" is less than 60 schools, the drop-off in interest will be quick and dramatic.

The Super League has already been formed.

It was born when sports media colluded to enforce a 50% premium on B1G and SEC deals last contract cycle, to ensure they always would have a lot to lose if the NCAA or Congress ever decided to bring this crap to heel. They correctly assessed that at their core, those two leagues are powered by greed as a placeholder for prominence. And now that tv has whispered "You're special" in their collective ears, they know they always will have a veto in the room when reforms come.

It's impressively Machiavellian.

 

[BCoffClone125]

I listened to the podcast but mostly skimmed through this thread. I have a lot of faith in Jamie that he is going to do everything he can to solve this problem, but ultimately it will probably be in the hands of the BOR or IA politicians which is a little scary. It is good to know that we have enough in reserves to get by the first 2 years, but we obviously need to establish a sustainable source $ for the AD long term to keep up and/or survive.

The only way I could see the student fee thing working is if you stop charging student season ticket fees and make attendance to athletic events "accessible" for all students. I think some schools do this where all students pay an athletics fee and then can attend athletics event for free. Now, there would have to be limits and some sort of priority system determined for the high demand events that sell out (like big football games and most MBB conference home games) but I think it could potentially be sold that way. All students get charged a fee for access to State Gym, Leid, etc. but not everyone actually uses these services either. There has to be something in it for the students or the optics don't look great and you're setting a bad precedent.

 

[HouClone]

Been discussed but would be great if they sold beer at the games to bring additional revenue. I would feel better knowing that the few beers chugging down is helping pay that QB watching on the field.

 

[aeroclone]

Been discussed but would be great if they sold beer at the games to bring additional revenue. I would feel better knowing that the few beers chugging down is helping pay that QB watching on the field.

Yeah, I mean it doesn't solve most of the problem, but it is some of it. I don't know how you can sit there and say we are $20M in the hole and have no idea how we are going to find a way to address it. And then turn around and look at booze sales that may be worth $1M a year and say, yeah but we don't like the idea of that revenue.

This is a battle for survival, you can't be holding back on something like that.

 

[cyatheart]

Also, just for the sake of some data. The argument here is that, if we don't field a very elite team (which we haven't done up to this point), that the university, city, and region will all implode. That's a logical fallacy - just because we don't have the money of Texas doesn't mean that most other teams don't, also, so there will still be plenty of competition at that next level down. Which - that's the same level we've been at now, anyway. We don't have Bama or Texas or Florida money, so we're not getting our own TV channel or anything, anyway - so really the argument is moot.

But let's go ahead and pretend it holds water. If it were true, then surely the years when we were out here just absolutely sh***ing the bed, our enrollment and city size should have been directly affected the next year, right? Since it's a 1:1?

I went ahead and pulled the data, and went ahead and made a chart. HERE is the enrollment data, the football win records (each of which I multiplied by 3000 so that they would show on the chart), the basketball win records (each of which I multiplied by 1000 for the same reason), and the last three censuses for Ames. I did all of this back to 1996. In the year, you'll note that there is an asterisk (*) any time we got to the NCAA tournament, and a tilde (~) any time we went to a bowl game.

And... wouldn't you know, there's just absolutely zero correlation. Arguably, after dual successes in 2000 (most especially with the Elite 8 appearance), 2001, 2005, 2012, 2017, and the past couple of years, we should have seen skyrocketing enrollment the next year... and there just wasn't. In fact, several of the years, they went down the next year. So one might think that perhaps there's just not that big of a correlation between the success of an athletic program and enrollment at large?

And also, population just keeps growing, regardless of wins altogether.

View attachment 148977

Nobody wants us to be knocked down a peg in our athletics, but creating false narratives to try and elicit panic are not the way to avoid it.

Iowa state is not going to have 25k undergrads if we drop out of D1 athletics. I don’t think that is a question.

 

[cyatheart]

I think Greg Sankey of the SEC has done more permanent damage to college sports than anyone else, including the ncaa.

He will soon to start to realize, that a "super league" concept pisses all over the history of college sports and what has made it so awesome for the fans.

I don’t think he cares, in fact I think he wants to destroy it.

 

[Nolaeer]

Before Wren Baker fired Neal Brown, he got assurances from WVU and the state of WV that it would cover the NIL revenue sharing. WVU is the pro sports team for the state of WV and 20 million is cheap to keep a pro team in the state.

 

[Cyrealist]

I get we don’t want to be a G5 team, but what’s the path from being a P4 team to being a G5 team?

Is it that Iowa State will leave the Big 12 on its own? That it will be kicked out of the Big 12? That in 5-10 years the Big 10 and SEC will break away with a few other teams and the remaining teams will effectively be G5? And if it’s the last one, will fully funding the revenue sharing really play a huge role? Or will it be more like the more recent round of expansion where it was about markets and fanbase size and demographics?

Possibilities would include dropping out of the Big XII or the Big XII deciding to impose limits as a conference, in effect dropping us down to a different level of competition. I don't know whether that would be allowed by the courts. But Pollard's point is that when the money's all gone, something has to change. I think the best solution is for Congress to grant an antitrust exemption so the schools (through the NCAA) can enact reforms to allow for budgets that make sense while maintaining some kind of competitive balance. I think the TV people are fine with a drift toward a Big10-SEC Super league. I don't think they have anyone smart enough to question the fan support for such a system. Iowa State's program is in better shape than much of our conference in fan support, but some of the schools have shown they're willing to fund the difference out of student fees or the schools' general fund. Pollard seems to be asking for a few years of support to provide a bridge to a time when there may be a more sustainable system.

 

[1SEIACLONE]

Here is the latest US Today college athletic budget information, its dated March of 2024, so a year old. ISU currently is ranked #39 in terms of revenue, not bad, considering we are getting little to nothing from the university to get to that number. Scholarships are costing us almost $10 million a year. What is shocking as usual is the amount of money other universities are pumping into their athletic programs, while we are currently at $1,847,000 a year from student fees.

NCAA Finances: Revenue & Expenses by School - USA TODAY

Which are the most profitable college athletic programs in the country? See a ranked listed, including total revenue and expenses. Brought to you by USA TODAY.

sportsdata.usatoday.com

 

[brentblum]

Here is the latest US Today college athletic budget information, its dated March of 2024, so a year old. ISU currently is ranked #39 in terms of revenue, not bad, considering we are getting little to nothing from the university to get to that number. Scholarships are costing us almost $10 million a year. What is shocking as usual is the amount of money other universities are pumping into their athletic programs, while we are currently at $1,847,000 a year from student fees.

NCAA Finances: Revenue & Expenses by School - USA TODAY

Which are the most profitable college athletic programs in the country? See a ranked listed, including total revenue and expenses. Brought to you by USA TODAY.

sportsdata.usatoday.com

That’s the thing the biggest spenders from University allocations are actually group of five schools trying to keep up. If Iowa State drops down a level to the MAC or Mountain West they will need even more University/State support to compete even with those schools. Or they could become UNI and play the Dakota schools. Logically a $10-20 million dollar investment from the State/University could save hundreds of millions of dollars in damage.

 

[HouClone]

Hawks hoping we can't keep up. We have a better basketball team and better access to the football playoffs. "Iowa is only big enough for one power team", they implore.

 

[HouClone]

That’s the thing the biggest spenders from University allocations are actually group of five schools trying to keep up. If Iowa State drops down a level to the MAC or Mountain West they will need even more University/State support to compete even with those schools. Or they could become UNI and play the Dakota schools. Logically a $10-20 million dollar investment from the State/University could save hundreds of millions of dollars in damage.

I went to Iowa State because they had big time athletics. If ISU dropped down, I wouldn't have considered ISU.

 

[theshadow]

I have a lot of faith in Jamie that he is going to do everything he can to solve this problem, but ultimately it will probably be in the hands of the BOR or IA politicians which is a little scary.

More than a little scary, to folks who experienced the attempts to effectively turn ISU into "UI-Ames", along with the forced WOI sale (after all, UI didn't have a TV station, so ISU couldn't either).

 

[1UNI2ISU]

That’s the thing the biggest spenders from University allocations are actually group of five schools trying to keep up. If Iowa State drops down a level to the MAC or Mountain West they will need even more University/State support to compete even with those schools. Or they could become UNI and play the Dakota schools. Logically a $10-20 million dollar investment from the State/University could save hundreds of millions of dollars in damage.

The state doesn't even fund UNI at a level anywhere near its peers. It's malpractice from the BOR towards all three state institutions, frankly.

 

[clonedude]

I think Greg Sankey of the SEC has done more permanent damage to college sports than anyone else, including the ncaa.

He will soon to start to realize, that a "super league" concept pisses all over the history of college sports and what has made it so awesome for the fans.

Part of me hopes the SEC and B1G get everything they’ve ever dreamed of…. and it completely falls apart on them when nobody in the country outside of those two leagues gives a s**t anymore and quits watching.

I want SO bad for everyone to eventually realize that they all once had a great gig…. and they f**ked it all up because of nothing more than greed.

Don’t know if that will ever happen though…. unfortunately in this country it seems like greed always wins.

 

[CyCrazy]

Part of me hopes the SEC and B1G get everything they’ve ever dreamed of…. and it completely falls apart on them when nobody in the country outside of those two leagues gives a s**t anymore and quits watching.

I want SO bad for everyone to eventually realize that they all once had a great gig…. and they f**ked it all up because of nothing more than greed.

Don’t know if that will ever happen though…. unfortunately in this country it seems like greed always wins.

It's always been about greed.

 

[clonedude]

It's always been about greed.

I get that. But for quite a long period there, nobody was wanting a two conference super league, and screw everyone else.

College football is great because of all the schools that make it up…. they all have their own histories and traditions.. and all that diversity made college football awesome. Do away with the vast majority of those schools, and what do you have? Nothing that I will ever watch…. I can guarantee that.

 

[Angie]

Iowa state is not going to have 25k undergrads if we drop out of D1 athletics. I don’t think that is a question.

That's been addressed many times upthread - the finances don't make sense that we'd drop out.