Iowa State 2011 Football Prospectus

[jjmcillece]

Nice job. While I loved the players that have graduated and moved on, it was the 111th ranked offense, so maybe it's not so hard to replace as we may think. I think we win anywhere from 5 to 7 games.

I did account for the offensive ranking last year in my prediction. A low-ranked offense one year is a positive indicator for the upcoming season, meaning that I increased ISU's expected power rating as a result of having low yardage output in 2010.

 

[jjmcillece]

In that case, what were/would have been your odds last May of ISU winning in Austin the ensuing Fall?

Less than 10%. As I mentioned in the preview, I underrated ISU two years running. I don't shy away from discussing how accurate I was about a given team. It's important to recognize that there is a tremendous amount of variability in how a college football season will unfold, and analysis models can only explain some of it.

 

[jjmcillece]

I think the way he's getting to four wins is by calculating fractional games. For example, a 50% chance of a win = 0.5 wins, etc. Using that I'm arriving at 3.57 wins (rounds to 4). If you have a 49% chance of winning each game it's not the same as projecting zero wins... more like 5-6 over the course of 12 games.

Correct.

 

[Irresponsible]

If you have a 49% chance of winning each game it's not the same as projecting zero wins... more like 5-6 over the course of 12 games.

But, if you take them "one game at time" like the old cliche says, I guess you lose them all.