Go For 2

[drlove]

Not heard much on this but ISU should have gone for 2 after their last TD. Score was 41-34 and we kicked PAT. If we don't make a 2, and OSU scores a TD they would have kicked to tie the game at 41. Been watching ISU for decades and we almost always play it safe. If we get the 2 the game is over. Why not take a chance to end the game (go up by 9) vs leading by 7 if the try fails. 1912 was our last championship. Let's roll the dice a little.

I agree with you. While I don't believe you do that all game long, I do believe you should in the 4th quarter. There was very little down-side to going for 2 IMO. If we are up 7 or 8, OSU is only trying to tie the game if they score a TD. Being up 2 scores changes the dynamic a lot. In the past 12 months, I've rooted for team in this situation 2 different times (ISU and Denver Broncos) and both times the opponent came down and scored a TD with a 2pt conversion and in both cases lost the game. It should be noted that both the Cyclones and Broncos were known for their defenses.

 

[drlove]

Ugh flashbacks from 2010 just keep flooding my mind. I think CMC trusts the defense too much to risk the 2pt conversation.
That same decision cost Utah a win over USC earlier this year. Just seems to risky

this wasn't the same decision at all, as UTAH VS USC. UTAH was behind by 1, not up 7. Huge difference.

 

[cloneteach]

This team is coached by CMC, not Paul Ra Ra Rhoads. You play to win with efficient decisions, not gutsy calls that don't guarantee squat.

Don't confuse conservative decisions with efficient decisions. Kicking/Punting on 4th and 1 is not an efficient decision. Punting inside the 40 is not an efficient decision.

When he said during a press conference he relied on his gut instinct and feel for the game on 4th down decisions I cringed.

 

[cloneteach]

I agree with this stance. The less time left in the game the better the decision is to go for 2.

 

[cloneteach]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/when-to-go-for-2-for-real/

This says its roughly the same outcome. There is a 2.9 increase in win prob vs going for 1 in that situation.

 

[burn587]

So we're debating a decision that would've made us lose by 6 instead of 7?

 

[VeloClone]

When ISU drove into red zone and looked like it might score, the thought entered my mind about trying for 2 to win. I figured Campbell would kick and just move to OT. The x-factor might've been if he thought the defense was too "spent" and pressure would be even bigger on Noland, so it'd be a worthwhile risk to go all-or-nothing in regulation. I'm not sure what I would've done if I was coaching.

Alas, we didn't get to find out.

I thought about this also during that drive, but Campbell has eyes. He saw how the OSU d-backs were getting away with muggings in the endzone. Why would you try for two in an all or nothing play when you can be confident that the refs on the outside aren't going to give you a call?

 

[MeowingCows]

Fast forward to the end of the game...if ISU would have gotten a TD with under 30 seconds left, what would you do then? Do you kick to tie or go for two to win the game?

Tie and hope for the best in OT...go for two and maybe get three chances at it like OSU did? Line up for a kick and then shift out to an offensive play or some other kind of fake kick? OSU had no timeouts left.

What say you?

Take this one to OT. OSU does their best work in space with a large field. They are more vulnerable to our defense in compressed space, and our schemes work better in compression. Offense was already clicking again, so let them take their confidence back onto the field as well.

 

[tolfbfan]

Don't confuse conservative decisions with efficient decisions. Kicking/Punting on 4th and 1 is not an efficient decision. Punting inside the 40 is not an efficient decision.

When he said during a press conference he relied on his gut instinct and feel for the game on 4th down decisions I cringed.

Definition of Gut Instinct. 100 + hours of film, 2 years learning everything about his players, many years of experience, mood on sideline, mentality of offense, play that has repeatedly worked in practice etc etc etc.

 

[spitfyr36]

this wasn't the same decision at all, as UTAH VS USC. UTAH was behind by 1, not up 7. Huge difference.

Had we scored a touchdown on that last drive we would have been down by one. That's what I was referring to. Going for the win to avoid OT

 

[cloneteach]

Definition of Gut Instinct. 100 + hours of film, 2 years learning everything about his players, many years of experience, mood on sideline, mentality of offense, play that has repeatedly worked in practice etc etc etc.

Those are all great points and can certainly be factored in. I just think MC weights the "feel of the game" a little too heavily and some of the conservative decisions result in a lower expected win probability.

 

[tolfbfan]

Those are all great points and can certainly be factored in. I just think MC weights the "feel of the game" a little too heavily and some of the conservative decisions result in a lower expected win probability.

I hear you, but I believe CMC believes a conservative approach over the long term results in better results.