ESPN's Joe Lunardi: ISU's seed line for NCAAs unlikely to change much

[FinalFourCy]

Recent example: Jay Wright had the "Elite 8 Ceiling" label for a while at Villanova, then broke through (and beyond). Now, the falling-short stretch is almost a footnote.

That’s not really true, or at least a good comparison. There’s also a big difference between the EE and Sweet 16. Jay Wright went to a Final Four in just his 5th tournament at Villanova. His tournament success was generally over-performing:

Sweet 16 as a 5 seed
Elite Eight as a 1 seed
First Round as 9 seed
Sweet 16 as a 12 seed
Final Four as a 3 seed


Compared to Bennett:
First Round as 10 seed
Sweet 16 as 1 seed
Second Round as 2 seed
Elite Eight as 1 seed
Second Round as 5 seed
First Round as 1 seed

 

[cyclones500]

That’s not really true, or at least a good comparison. There’s also a big difference between the EE and Sweet 16. Jay Wright went to a Final Four in just his 5th tournament at Villanova. His tournament success was generally over-performing

I stand corrected for making direct comparison, I was going from memory to an extent and forgot about his first F4 being as early as it was. Nova did underperform in 14 and 15 (as a 2 and 1 seed, losing in Round of 32), that's probably what led me to that (recency bias, I suppose!)

 

[enisthemenace]

Lunardi ***** sheep

 

[huntt26]

We've moved up to the top #7 seed on bracketmatrix. Tonight's game may decide our fate of 6 seed or 7 seed.

 

[jbindm]

We've moved up to the top #7 seed on bracketmatrix. Tonight's game may decide our fate of 6 seed or 7 seed.

I'd really like to see them get off the 7/10 line. It's still a crapshoot no matter what but it seems like by jumping from a 7 to a 6 they wouldn't see a team with a legitimate shot at winning the whole thing until the second weekend.

 

[cyclones500]

We've moved up to the top #7 seed on bracketmatrix. Tonight's game may decide our fate of 6 seed or 7 seed.

I agree a win vs. KSU probably secures a 6. Assessing other teams in the vicinity, Maryland and Louisville are done playing, Buffalo can't improve its position with any MAC tournament win; Auburn probably still higher than ISU, but result of SC game is uncertain as of this post.

 

[Cydkar]

We've moved up to the top #7 seed on bracketmatrix. Tonight's game may decide our fate of 6 seed or 7 seed.

This is my thought. Win = 6. Lose = 7 with a slight chance for 6.

 

[BWRhasnoAC]

If we win out we are easily a 6. Maybe a 5 if we do it convincingly like yesterday.

 

[jsb]

Lunardi is so stupid. He says three days ago that we are likely locked at a 7 no matter what happened this weekend. Today he has us as as 5.