ESPN, Fox Open Discussions for Next Big 12 Deal

[BillBrasky4Cy]

This should give some Cyclone fans a seizure...

Bud Light TV Spot, 'Bud Light + Lady Gaga Dive Bar Tour: Joanne'

On Oct. 27, 2016, fans can watch Lady Gaga perform "Joanne" on Bud Light's Facebook Live as part of her Dive Bar Tour.

www.ispot.tv

GUUUUUUURRRRRRRRRLLLLLLLL

 

[theshadow]

CBS has 4 Mountain West games plus 15-16 Big Ten games. When you factor in their other commitments I don't see a consistent window available from them either.

CBS has 9 Saturdays this year with the early window open. Right now, they have 1 NWSL match, 2 CIC games, and 1 SEC game in that window.

It's not a stretch to think they could possibly have a series of 11 a.m. Big 12 games with a potential prime time game once or twice.

 

[BillBrasky4Cy]

So hear me out...everyone thinks this is the deathstroke for the P12, but the P12 is already dead. The networks need a way to blow up the ACC, and this may be their play. Get the B12 involved, have us send out some invites in order to have enough teams wanting out that they can dissolve the ACC. Some go B1G, some go SEC, others to B12. In exchange we get a bump in pay, the leftovers now have to get a new contract for their rights which would be even lower than what ESPN had before.

Fox gets the ACC teams it wants for the B1G
ESPN gets the ACC teams it wants for the SEC
B12 gets the ACC teams it wants and a reworked deal, keeping them "competitive"

P12 dies on the vine, some teams spreading to the B1G and B12. Remaining teams get much lower deal for their rights, saving the networks more $.

The ACC will die on the vine because they are handcuffed to their awful TV deal. The PAC will be done and the ACC will just sit and wait until it's their turn.

 

[1UNI2ISU]

CBS has 9 Saturdays this year with the early window open. Right now, they have 1 NWSL match, 2 CIC games, and 1 SEC game in that window.

It's not a stretch to think they could possibly have a series of 11 a.m. Big 12 games with a potential prime time game once or twice.

If they want to pay for it, I'm all for it. Just, in my mind, I have a hard time seeing them going so far away from what they've done in the past.

 

[Big_Sill]

The exit fees are $85M each, and I believe that is a solid number. But the GoR number in the article at $85M each looks like a guess. But thinking about it a bit- when OuT first happened, iirc the thoughtful math was the conference makes ~$350M a year, and OuT was worth 50% (Bowlsby set that price point, probably a ceiling) then that's ~$175M per year. So that IS in the $85M each range...

Also, whatever number it turns out to be, you'd divide by 8, not 10

So whatever the new contract is per team without OuT impacts... and you add $340M more in exit fees and GoR settlement for 8 schools... that's $42.5M each. Maybe spread that out over 5 years is an extra $8M per Hateful 8 team annually. That seems like ESPN could fund that amount in exchange for OuT and lots of good basketball content.

Sorry if a dumb question, but would the GOR money even go to remaining member schools? Or would part, or all, go to or through media partners (FOX)? The GOR protects media partners first, and indirectly the member schools no? Is there any precedent here? NU, A&M, MIZZ?

Conference exit fee's would clearly go to member schools.

 

[KennyPratt42]

In retrospect I would guess what FOX/ESPN would like is a 16 team team major conference of:

Oklahoma St.
Kansas
Kansas St.
Iowa St.
Baylor
TCU
Texas Tech
West Virginia
Cincinnati
BYU
Oregon
Washington
Utah
Arizona
Arizona St.
Colorado

But I don't think the Big 12 schools would be willing to go back on Houston and UCF (or BYU/Cincinnati for that matter if you're adding Cal/Stanford too) and it seems pretty unlikely Oregon or Washington would be willing to move to a new conference other than the Big 10. But I also can't really see the scenario where FOX/ESPN is working to move the four corner schools which would leave Oregon/Washington/Stanford out on an island as major programs with no major conference home (and if the plan was for two of those three to move to the Big 10 theres no reason it wasn't with USC/UCLA). Whats pretty clear to me is that FOX and ESPN have a tremendous amount of influence, but not complete control because there is no way it would have played out into this messy situation if they had control of the whole process.

 

[CloneAlta]

So hear me out...everyone thinks this is the deathstroke for the P12, but the P12 is already dead. The networks need a way to blow up the ACC, and this may be their play. Get the B12 involved, have us send out some invites in order to have enough teams wanting out that they can dissolve the ACC. Some go B1G, some go SEC, others to B12. In exchange we get a bump in pay, the leftovers now have to get a new contract for their rights which would be even lower than what ESPN had before.

Fox gets the ACC teams it wants for the B1G
ESPN gets the ACC teams it wants for the SEC
B12 gets the ACC teams it wants and a reworked deal, keeping them "competitive"

P12 dies on the vine, some teams spreading to the B1G and B12. Remaining teams get much lower deal for their rights, saving the networks more $.

This slant sure seems to me to be one (or two) steps ahead of obvious conventional thinking, therefore is likely where FOX, ESPN & guys like Yormack are headed!

 

[exCyDing]

In this scenario think you need all of the leftover and new B12 schools protected. So in that scenario you take the 8 remaining B12, BYU & UH and combine them with 6 or 7 PAC schools(eventually at least 2 of those are going to the B1G). You can then shift over WVU, Cincy and even UCF to the ACC. Nobody is hurt in the existing B12 and only WSU & OSU are left behind. Does ESPN allow 6 ACC schools to leave early and give the new ACC more money to get the other schools to allow it? Maybe by allowing it FOX and ESPN have negotiated a deal to let ESPN steer the two schools they want the most UNC & VA to the SEC and not the B1G. The B1G may be better off with their national plans and the need for football recruiting grounds to get FSU & Miami. FOX doesn't have Florida.

Maybe ESPN creates a conference network for the new B12/PAC AND packages it with the ACC network when selling it to get national distribution for both.

The B12 adding 4-6 PAC schools seems most likely. UW and OR would be fine additions, even if it's for 10 years or less. I really don't see Stanford coming on board the B12, more likely they go independent(ish), at least for football. Cal probably gets left out unless the state can get them a package to go with UCLA, but that seems doubtful.

However, I don't see the eastern teams moving to the ACC, primarily because it would be a parallel move money wise now, and I don't see the ACC minus Clemson, FSU, Miami and others as a stronger conference than the B12 in the future.

I'm really not buying that there's a way to blow up the ACC. First, they need eight votes. Are the B1G and SEC taking 8 ACC Schools between the two of them, or do they need to B12 to pick up 2+? Can two rival networks, three rival conferences and eight rival schools all work together without tipping off the other six schools? Will the ones who are B12-bound okay with their rivals getting a ticket to the P2 while they're going to the #3 conference? Or will they jam up the works since they're likely to end up the B12 in 2036 and there's no reason to make that move now?

If the B12 gets a few PAC teams and a new deal that puts them well ahead of the ACC, things get more plausible. Until then, I think don't there's a way the get enough ACC votes to dissolve the conference.

 

[cyfan92]

In retrospect I would guess what FOX/ESPN would like is a 16 team team major conference of:

Oklahoma St.
Kansas
Kansas St.
Iowa St.
Baylor
TCU
Texas Tech
West Virginia
Cincinnati
BYU
Oregon
Washington
Utah
Arizona
Arizona St.
Colorado

But I don't think the Big 12 schools would be willing to go back on Houston and UCF (or BYU/Cincinnati for that matter if you're adding Cal/Stanford too) and it seems pretty unlikely Oregon or Washington would be willing to move to a new conference other than the Big 10. But I also can't really see the scenario where FOX/ESPN is working to move the four corner schools which would leave Oregon/Washington/Stanford out on an island as major programs with no major conference home (and if the plan was for two of those three to move to the Big 10 theres no reason it wasn't with USC/UCLA). Whats pretty clear to me is that FOX and ESPN have a tremendous amount of influence, but not complete control because there is no way it would have played out into this messy situation if they had control of the whole process.

UCF opens Florida recruiting and has nearly 70K students. They are a growth stock to buy now
Houston opens up the 5th largest MSA in the country, has nearly 50K students, re-solidifies Texas recruiting, and brings an elite basketball partner.
Both also WANT to be in the conference. Plus it would be nice to have easier games on the football schedule as BYU and Cincy are usually better than ISU

Would we rather have Oregon and Wash.. Yes, but they want to be apart of the B1G. Plus the B1G needs more travel partners for USC and UCLA.

 

[Win5002]

The B12 adding 4-6 PAC schools seems most likely. UW and OR would be fine additions, even if it's for 10 years or less. I really don't see Stanford coming on board the B12, more likely they go independent(ish), at least for football. Cal probably gets left out unless the state can get them a package to go with UCLA, but that seems doubtful.

However, I don't see the eastern teams moving to the ACC, primarily because it would be a parallel move money wise now, and I don't see the ACC minus Clemson, FSU, Miami and others as a stronger conference than the B12 in the future.

I'm really not buying that there's a way to blow up the ACC. First, they need eight votes. Are the B1G and SEC taking 8 ACC Schools between the two of them, or do they need to B12 to pick up 2+? Can two rival networks, three rival conferences and eight rival schools all work together without tipping off the other six schools? Will the ones who are B12-bound okay with their rivals getting a ticket to the P2 while they're going to the #3 conference? Or will they jam up the works since they're likely to end up the B12 in 2036 and there's no reason to make that move now?

If the B12 gets a few PAC teams and a new deal that puts them well ahead of the ACC, things get more plausible. Until then, I think don't there's a way the get enough ACC votes to dissolve the conference.

I don't think leagues can dissolve by vote very easily because once a team like OU or UT has a destination I have seen where they have been deemed a disinterested party and don't have a vote. This makes sense those left behind don't want schools going somewhere else determining their fate.

I believe the PAC's GOR ends when USC & UCLA leave and NOTHING ties that league together. So I think OSU/WSU could be left behind easily.

The ACC is different but lets say FOX/ESPN for a variety of reasons want to keep paying the B12 at its current levels when the contract expires. Thats a lot more than the ACC gets. Lets say ESPN/FOX give all the schools without a B1G/SEC ticket a move to the B12 plus agree to convert the ACC Network to the new league(Maybe the great America Conference with a national conference network after adding PAC 12 schools besides maybe as many as 6 or 7 just two such as Stanford & UW go to the B1G.) If the ACC schools will make more and that is their eventual fate, why not go now?

Maybe ESPN & FOX want to do this to one get the new content into the B1G/SEC ASAP and two lock up programming for a long term deal and not compete against streaming for another say another 12 years instead of 6 year? FOX gets markets it doesn't have now and also ESPN might not piss off UNC/VA/FSU/Clemson plus another couple to the point where they have an adversarial relationship with ESPN and less likely to sign on to a league that cost them literally 100's of millions of dollars the previous 12 years.

 

[Win5002]

UCF opens Florida recruiting and has nearly 70K students. They are a growth stock to buy now
Houston opens up the 5th largest MSA in the country, has nearly 50K students, re-solidifies Texas recruiting, and brings an elite basketball partner.
Both also WANT to be in the conference. Plus it would be nice to have easier games on the football schedule as BYU and Cincy are usually better than ISU

Would we rather have Oregon and Wash.. Yes, but they want to be apart of the B1G. Plus the B1G needs more travel partners for USC and UCLA.

Yes OR & UW want the B1G although some think the B1G could only take on of those two with Stanford being the other team.

For OR & UW's brand going forward do you want to be in a California, scratch that Bay are market based league or a Texas based league for tv ratings? The state of Texas will keep watching the B12 and the media will continue to cover it even if it is second to the SEC, California support for the future PAC is a big question mark. This might devalue UW & OR brand for future realignment if they don't make the cut this time.

 

[isucy86]

How would you feel as a member of the other 8 programs about signing a deal with Oregon and Washington if they have a foot out the door already?

I wouldn't have an issue as long as every school signs a GOR for the term of the media rights agreement.

Like I said, the Pac12 could receive hundreds of millions from CFB Playoff- for this scenario $250M. What if Pac12 splits $200M of playoff money 10 ways and then holds back $50M to split among Pac12 playoff teams.

The sure thing from a $ standpoint is Big10 or SEC money. But would Oregon or Washington decide they have a better chance making the CFB Playoff in Pac12 vs Big10 and they could make $75M from media rights? The $75M is:

• $30M Pac12 TV deal
• $20M even split of Pac12 CFB Playoff $ ($200/10)
• $25M Pac12 Awards to Playoff Teams ($50/2 teams assumed)

 

[isucy86]

CBS has 4 MW games total for the entire season, not 4 per week.

ND could easily start a little later to accommodate an 11 AM lead in.

NBC currently shows soccer in the late morning window. The question would be would they want to or can they move that to USA or Peacock.

 

[SCNCY]

NBC currently shows soccer in the late morning window. The question would be would they want to or can they move that to USA or Peacock.

For NBC, the only play I could see them making is to fill the weekends when Notre Dame is playing away, and thus, NBC has an opening.

 

[KennyPratt42]

UCF opens Florida recruiting and has nearly 70K students. They are a growth stock to buy now
Houston opens up the 5th largest MSA in the country, has nearly 50K students, re-solidifies Texas recruiting, and brings an elite basketball partner.
Both also WANT to be in the conference. Plus it would be nice to have easier games on the football schedule as BYU and Cincy are usually better than ISU

Would we rather have Oregon and Wash.. Yes, but they want to be apart of the B1G. Plus the B1G needs more travel partners for USC and UCLA.

I agree with everything you said, I'm more looking at it from FOX/ESPN's perspectives. From an ISU/Big 12 perspective I'm happy with the new 12 plus any of the four corner schools that want to be in the conference long term.

 

[jctisu]

Let's just say something not so good that just happened to me probably means good things for the Big 12. I can't say exactly what it is that I know, but I will leave it to the sleuths to decipher. Clues are there. Hint, look at what's in my username.

 

[cyfan92]

I agree with everything you said, I'm more looking at it from FOX/ESPN's perspectives. From an ISU/Big 12 perspective I'm happy with the new 12 plus any of the four corner schools that want to be in the conference long term.

Yeah, I doubt the TV networks have enough power to wreck their admittance into the Big 12.

 

[exCyDing]

I don't think leagues can dissolve by vote very easily because once a team like OU or UT has a destination I have seen where they have been deemed a disinterested party and don't have a vote. This makes sense those left behind don't want schools going somewhere else determining their fate.

That's it precisely - it's a chicken and egg situation. Schools aren't going to vote to dissolve unless they know they have a landing spot, but they only way they'll know they have a landing spot is if they take steps that would lead to them losing their vote. I would think the schools not invited to the B1G/SEC/B12 would have a good legal argument that the vote to dissolve was illegitimate.

I believe the PAC's GOR ends when USC & UCLA leave and NOTHING ties that league together. So I think OSU/WSU could be left behind easily.

Yes, the PAC schools are unbound from one another in 2024.

The ACC is different but lets say FOX/ESPN for a variety of reasons want to keep paying the B12 at its current levels when the contract expires. Thats a lot more than the ACC gets. Lets say ESPN/FOX give all the schools without a B1G/SEC ticket a move to the B12 plus agree to convert the ACC Network to the new league(Maybe the great America Conference with a national conference network after adding PAC 12 schools besides maybe as many as 6 or 7 just two such as Stanford & UW go to the B1G.) If the ACC schools will make more and that is their eventual fate, why not go now?

Maybe ESPN & FOX want to do this to one get the new content into the B1G/SEC ASAP and two lock up programming for a long term deal and not compete against streaming for another say another 12 years instead of 6 year? FOX gets markets it doesn't have now and also ESPN might not piss off UNC/VA/FSU/Clemson plus another couple to the point where they have an adversarial relationship with ESPN and less likely to sign on to a league that cost them literally 100's of millions of dollars the previous 12 years.

This is entirely dependent on what the PAC schools do, then what kind of deal the B12 gets with/without PAC additions. Right now, the B12 is slightly ahead of the ACC, but projections for 2026 on put the B12 slightly behind the ACC. If the B12+PAC can put some distance between themselves and the ACC, the possibility goes up.

I keep going back to one thing with a lot of these realignment scenarios, particularly with the ACC. The top ACC teams (Clemson, FSU, Miami, etc) need to get into the P2 to keep up with those programs. The next level of teams would likely prefer to be in the #3 conference, but what's the difference in revenue?

On the other hand, the P2, ESPN and Fox don't need any of the ACC teams to make gobs of money. Is it financially worthwhile to them to buy them out of the ACC or buy the rest of the ACC off? If it wasn't worth buying OUT of the B12 for 3 years, how is the math different for Clemson/FSU/Miami or others over 10-12 years.

As for the non-P2-bound ACC teams, imagine if Iowa and Iowa St were in the ACC. Iowa had a P2 invitation and Iowa St had a B12 invite. The B12 pays $3-$4m more than the ACC, but the P2 pays $20-30m more per year. Iowa St can move to the B12 now, or be fairly certain they'll have an invite in 12 years. Do they go along with it now, or use the opportunity to keep their rival out of the P2 for the time being? 10-12 ACC teams are Iowa St in this scenario right now and any six of them could nix the deal.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

Let's just say something not so good that just happened to me probably means good things for the Big 12. I can't say exactly what it is that I know, but I will leave it to the sleuths to decipher. Clues are there. Hint, look at what's in my profile picture and the 14th and 49th letters of this post.

Seriously, why do people do **** like this

 

[WhoISthis]

Let's just say something not so good that just happened to me probably means good things for the Big 12. I can't say exactly what it is that I know, but I will leave it to the sleuths to decipher. Clues are there. Hint, look at what's in my username

I’m guessing similar to the cost cutting Fox did in getting ready to for this round of realignment