CFB Returning Production

[Daserop]

Using Bill Connelly's Returning Production Stat, I was curious to see the correlation between returning production and (W/L record): P4 schools only. General take aways were.

If a team has less than 60% returning production, there's a high likelihood of having a rough season. Looking more closely at Duke and Pittsburgh there's a reason why they did better with little returning production.

Duke's final Sagarin 2024 SOS rank was #64 and Pitts was #62. There are 67 P4 teams.

 

[twojman]

I'm invested in Iowa State over 7.5. I'm thinking 8-4 or 9-3 for the 2025 season.

 

[Daserop]

I'm invested in Iowa State over 7.5. I'm thinking 8-4 or 9-3 for the 2025 season.

Agreed. There were only a handful of teams, who had greater than 3 losses. The teams that did (i.e. Michigan, Florida State) there were clear reason why.

 

[intrepid27]

AM I correct in assuming this covers both offense and defense?

 

[CascadeClone]

AM I correct in assuming this covers both offense and defense?

Was wondering same, and found this online-

Offense:

• Percent of returning OL snaps: 40% of the overall number
• Percent of returning WR/TE receiving yards: 35%
• Percent of returning QB passing yards: 22%
• Percent of returning RB rushing yards: 3%

Defense:

• Percent of returning snaps: 66%
• Percent of returning tackles: 19%
• Percent of returning tackles for loss: 15%

By position, linebackers make up about 35% of the defensive formula, while the defensive line is at 33% and the defensive backs are at 32%.

So for ISU, of the 42% "lost" production, I'd wag that 15% is the receiving yards (almost all of it, times half for offense) and the other 25% is defense (e.g. lost half the snaps/tackes overall).

I am not so worried about the receivers, lease important position on that side of the ball. It's all about the defense. But if anyone can take a bunch of 3 star guys with limited experience and turn them into a Top 25ish defense... its Jon Heacock. Realistically optimistic.

 

[Cyched]

 

[CascadeClone]

Wow, if you plot wins vs returning production and do a linear trendline... the R^2 is 1.3%. The difference between 40% returning and 80% returning is like 2 wins avg. That's not nothing in a CFB season, but its within the randomness.
If you take the top 8 teams (which is appx 1 stdev above avg, and about 10% of sample):
wins: 3,3,5,6,8,8,11,11 (55 total)
Same for bottom 8 teams:
wins: 2,4,6,6,7,8,9,10 (52 total)




If you look at YOY win total changes, its a LITTLE better. R^2 is 7.6% which is still terrible.



But that same top 10 / bottom 10 analysis:
top 10 avg 0.1 LESS wins YOY (although if you take out OKSt, it's PLUS 0.9 wins.
bottom 10 avg 2.75 less wins (so there is something in that anyway)

Looking at it some more, below 60% it averages 3 less wins. (14 teams)
60 up to 70%, averages 0.9 more wins. (33 teams)
70% and up, averages 0.25 more wins. (goes up to 0.7 more wins without the fighting Gundys) (16 teams)

So imho, the only use of this is if you are under 60%, then you are at real risk of dropping significantly YOY. And of course the more wins you had prior, the farther you can fall. (e.g. Washington & Michigan).

I'd be curious if there is more or less correlation between the different components (offense vs defense, position groups, etc) and the wins or win delta. Someone else can do that if they can get the data.

 

[Daserop]

AM I correct in assuming this covers both offense and defense?

Yes. I put 'overall' in the description

 

[Daserop]

Was wondering same, and found this online-

Offense:

• Percent of returning OL snaps: 40% of the overall number
• Percent of returning WR/TE receiving yards: 35%
• Percent of returning QB passing yards: 22%
• Percent of returning RB rushing yards: 3%

Defense:

• Percent of returning snaps: 66%
• Percent of returning tackles: 19%
• Percent of returning tackles for loss: 15%

By position, linebackers make up about 35% of the defensive formula, while the defensive line is at 33% and the defensive backs are at 32%.

So for ISU, of the 42% "lost" production, I'd wag that 15% is the receiving yards (almost all of it, times half for offense) and the other 25% is defense (e.g. lost half the snaps/tackes overall).

I am not so worried about the receivers, lease important position on that side of the ball. It's all about the defense. But if anyone can take a bunch of 3 star guys with limited experience and turn them into a Top 25ish defense... its Jon Heacock. Realistically optimistic.

I put 'overall' in the description because I figured people would ask this. I can find the breakdown (offense & defense) for 2025 returning production, but I couldn't find it for 2024 (just overall).

 

[Daserop]

Never seen the Kool-Aid man with an AK-47 before.

 

[1SEIACLONE]

How does EIU return 79% of the production from last season, when they lost Johnson, who was their offense, the QB and the best TE? Most of the defense was seniors, including all three of the LBs.

 

[RagingCloner]

How does EIU return 79% of the production from last season, when they lost Johnson, who was their offense, the QB and the best TE? Most of the defense was seniors, including all three of the LBs.

because their punter was an underclassmen

 

[1SEIACLONE]

because their punter was an underclassmen

This new QB better be the real deal or they are going to be in trouble over east.

 

[RagingCloner]

This new QB better be the real deal or they are going to be in trouble over east.

I mean it worked so well for them last time they brought in a frequently injured transfer QB, why not go to that well again?

 

[Daserop]

Updated original post with more information and fixed typos.

 

[EnkAMania]

Never seen the Kool-Aid man with an AK-47 before.

I see you never have been to Idaho.

 

[Clonedogg]

How does EIU return 79% of the production from last season, when they lost Johnson, who was their offense, the QB and the best TE? Most of the defense was seniors, including all three of the LBs.

I think you are reading the chart wrong. 79% was 2023 into 2024, 57% is 2024 into 2025.

 

[1SEIACLONE]

I think you are reading the chart wrong. 79% was 2023 into 2024, 57% is 2024 into 2025.

That makes a little bit more sense, but even then, how are they returning 57% of their production, Johnson was their offense, he had 1537 yards and 23 touchdowns, their other backs Moulton had 473 and 3 TDs, Patterson, 309 and 2 TDs. Takeout Johnsons and Sullivans rushing 150 yards and 4 TDs, you end up with 5 rushing TDs returning and 782 yards on 131 attempts.

 

[Daserop]

That makes a little bit more sense, but even then, how are they returning 57% of their production, Johnson was their offense, he had 1537 yards and 23 touchdowns, their other backs Moulton had 473 and 3 TDs, Patterson, 309 and 2 TDs. Takeout Johnsons and Sullivans rushing 150 yards and 4 TDs, you end up with 5 rushing TDs returning and 782 yards on 131 attempts.

The percentage accounts for incoming transfers production at other schools. Unsure how that production is weighed though.

 

[cyfan92]

If Clemson doesn't win 11 games, Dabo should be fired... That roster in a terrible ACC should win every conference game by double digits