Big 12 Expansion (new thread)

[AuH2O]

You keep forgetting one very important thing, according to the latest breakdown that I could find, 5 months ago, the Pac 12 media contract pays their league more than the Big 12's does. The reason each school in the Big 12 receives more is we only have 10 teams to their 12. But with the bringing in of the four new schools, we will be at 12 also.

The Pac 12 also hired a new Commish, no way he can be worse than Scott, who never got the Pac 12 on Direct TV. You also have to remember that the Pac 12 owns their entire network, unlike the other P5 leagues where ESPN or Fox owns a little less than half of each leagues network. There has to be value in the network itself.

No team is going to move until two things happen. 1 the Big 12 works out a new media contract and we know how long OU and UT are going to stay. 2. Until the Pac 12 and the Big 10 redo their media deals.

Here’s a look at all the current conference TV deals (on3.com)

This says otherwise. Tier 1 only might be more, but with everything Big 12 is higher. https://www.heartlandcollegesports....venue-reportedly-just-shy-of-current-revenue/
Still, people keep assuming that since Scott sucks the PAC just did a bad job negotiating and are going to get a big boost. If they go after a pretty traditional network deal the ratings say they aren’t due for a big boost. In the end you have to have people watch your games to get big media value. That isn’t happening in the PAC. They might be able to get bigger bucks going new media, but you run the risk of losing exposure.

 

[Cyforce]

A division of 8 teams where you never play the team in the other division sucks

That's why 16 team leagues suck, especially when you add two teams from Arizona and a second team from Utah. Great way slice up revenue though.

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

This says otherwise. Tier 1 only might be more, but with everything Big 12 is higher. https://www.heartlandcollegesports....venue-reportedly-just-shy-of-current-revenue/
Still, people keep assuming that since Scott sucks the PAC just did a bad job negotiating and are going to get a big boost. If they go after a pretty traditional network deal the ratings say they aren’t due for a big boost. In the end you have to have people watch your games to get big media value. That isn’t happening in the PAC. They might be able to get bigger bucks going new media, but you run the risk of losing exposure.

But what are the numbers when we move from a 10 team conference to a 12 team conference? The article you posted does not answer that question.

The Pac 12 made a major mistake when they did not offer at least 4 schools left over from the Big 12, and move their product into the Central Time Zone. It was always my hope that once that happened, that it would open a door for the Big 10 to then also expand and take ISU and KU. Maybe this will happen in the future, maybe not. Either way the Pac 12 is going to have to expand or lose their most valuable schools to other conferences that can pay more.

 

[WhoISthis]

I was going to post something like this.

Everyone is arguing "pac12 adds" or "big12 better". But the alliance has talked abt cross scheduling, and not poaching. So it might be easier and more on brand for pac to do that w big12 and have some kind of partnership.

There are so many possible outcomes of all this, and they are so radically different, i think its really impossible to predict. On top of that, i think NIL and "free agency" or player unionization or whatever that becomes is a much bigger tectonic shift and probably needs to get sorted out before or in combination w any realignment.
Alternate futures can be identified but predicting them is a mugs game.

Cheap and easy, but not really effective unless it provides something close to equitable revenue.

Message boards are for mugs game

 

[WhoISthis]

You are so wrong on this and elsewhere re' the ACC.

Always get a kick out of these dumbass responses with no explanation as to why they disagree. Typical CF BS.

Could not have said it better.

 

[AuH2O]

But what are the numbers when we move from a 10 team conference to a 12 team conference? The article you posted does not answer that question.

The Pac 12 made a major mistake when they did not offer at least 4 schools left over from the Big 12, and move their product into the Central Time Zone. It was always my hope that once that happened, that it would open a door for the Big 10 to then also expand and take ISU and KU. Maybe this will happen in the future, maybe not. Either way the Pac 12 is going to have to expand or lose their most valuable schools to other conferences that can pay more.

Right, nobody knows what the new Big 12 or new PAC deals will be. People are projecting the best they can, but no one really knows. But it’s hard to take projections seriously from people that say ISU or Okie St don’t have value when in similar TV situations they are right with USC and Oregon, who are far and away the two big names in the league. Maybe PAC will be higher, but people are thinking the PAC is going to separate financially vs the Big 12. And that’s all predicated on PAC getting a boost vs their last deal and there really isn’t justification for doing so in terms of viewership.

 

[CrossCyed]

The thought of sharing a conference with Memphis, Boise, SMU, San Diego State or nearly any other option is really off-putting

 

[WhoISthis]

The PACN only has value if a new entrant like Apple buys it to get in to live sports production. Otherwise, it is a huge albatross for the P12 as it relates to football and it has been the primary reason why P12 per school payouts have not been as high as the B12's. Kliavkoff has made it clear the P12 cannot continue with PACN for its Tier 3 FB inventory. It will be sold, decommissioned or have FB content removed from it.

Regarding "No team is going to move until two things happen. 1 the Big 12 works out a new media contract and we know how long OU and UT are going to stay. 2. Until the Pac 12 and the Big 10 redo their media deals."; that is inaccurate.

#1 will be the B12 reaching a settlement agreement with OU/UT/SEC/ESPN/Fox on the timing of the OU and UT departures to the SEC, the one-time cash payment of exit fees to the R8 and if OU/UT depart before GOR expiration (they won't wait until 2025), how the GOR settlement will be managed. The GOR settlement can also be straight up cash or instead of cash, ESPN/Fox will fund placement of the R8 to the P12, B10 and/or ACC. Nothing else happens prior to this.

It’s known Fox is an issue there, and the main network involved, ESPN, benefits if moving R8 now if ever moving. Consolidation is the goal, which results in eliminating conferences. ESPN accomplishes that for free if moving schools to the ACC in August. ESPN brokered OUT and is the sole GOR holder of the ACC

Of course ESPN benefits more from the ACC having their OUT, and moving anything of comparable value of R8 to the Big 12, anything below to AAC.

It would be crazy to have KU for example, pass on the chance to use OUT as a way to get out of the B12 for free, to a conference controlled by a network that has incentive to dissolve the Big 12, just to get a fraction of their own exit fee from OUT.

So now we’re down to assuming enough of the R8 have similar landing spots lined up for dissolution, without ESPN or anyone else knowing and that could pass discovery, but with firm knowledge the networks say such additions add enough value that the Alliance conferences want them, and the R8 departures prefer to be orphans rather than the third strongest P5 with an auto to the playoffs.

 

[WhoISthis]

Right, nobody knows what the new Big 12 or new PAC deals will be. People are projecting the best they can, but no one really knows. But it’s hard to take projections seriously from people that say ISU or Okie St don’t have value when in similar TV situations they are right with USC and Oregon, who are far and away the two big names in the league. Maybe PAC will be higher, but people are thinking the PAC is going to separate financially vs the Big 12. And that’s all predicated on PAC getting a boost vs their last deal and there really isn’t justification for doing so in terms of viewership.

I think there’s hope here that if the B12 is weak and going to dissolve, it represents a chance ISU ends up in the BIG.

Obviously that’s contradictory, as if enough R8 have the value to increase Alliance per team revenue, the Big 12 is clearly equitable to ACC and Pac12, and no one is willingly becoming satellite schools.

After taking ACC backfill candidates, the floor for any R8 is now being in the Big 12 as the “3” of a P3. Perhaps for awhile it’s being in the Big 12 as a P5 with an auto bid to playoffs, but it’s not being a pod for either ACC or Pac12.

So , do some R8 have invites to BIG (SEC would offer months ago to end the conference). Maybe KU? Maybe ISU? But it is far fetched to think there are looming invites just waiting on OUT. That costs ISU/KU money, and doesn’t benefit other R8 in their quest to land a spot. The 18 month notice is starting to run into new Pac12 TV deal. So we’re back to a master plan by R8, networks, and Alliance to wait on OUT.

Far more likely there’s no clear value in moving R8, as things are near parity or no value added, and if anything, the next move is a similar OUT situation in ACC and P12

 

[isucy86]

But what are the numbers when we move from a 10 team conference to a 12 team conference? The article you posted does not answer that question.

The Pac 12 made a major mistake when they did not offer at least 4 schools left over from the Big 12, and move their product into the Central Time Zone. It was always my hope that once that happened, that it would open a door for the Big 10 to then also expand and take ISU and KU. Maybe this will happen in the future, maybe not. Either way the Pac 12 is going to have to expand or lose their most valuable schools to other conferences that can pay more.

The article that someone posted yesterday about Houston's agreement with the Big12 lends some insight.

If I read correctly, it mentioned Houston would join the Big12 July 1, 2024 (it could be earlier if Houston agrees). And it appears Houston would not receive a share of the Big12's TV revenue until July 1, 2025. I would assume Houston, Cincinnati and UCF all agreed to the same terms. Maybe BYU got the same deal too, but their situation is different being they have an existing TV contract as an independent. So that would seem to indicate the existing 8 would not see a reduced payment under the current Big12 TV Rights deal.

My guess is the expansion agreement with the 4 new schools was written that way because of the current litigation with UT & OU. Once that is worked out, then maybe the Big12 goes back and revises the deal with the 4 new schools based on what ESPN does once UT & OU depart.

 

[WhoISthis]

The article that someone posted yesterday about Houston's agreement with the Big12 lends some insight.

If I read correctly, it mentioned Houston would join the Big12 July 1, 2024. And it appears Houston would not receive a share of the Big12's TV revenue starting July 1, 2025. I would assume Houston, Cincinnati and UCF all agreed to the same terms. Maybe BYU got the same deal too, but their situation is different being they have an existing TV contract as an independent.

So that would seem to indicate the existing 8 would not see a reduced payment under the current Big12 TV Rights deal.

Wasn’t that a widely held belief- basically that we’ll be made whole until the end of the current deal, which is basically just using GOR as leveraged. It’s better for espn to move OuT and make big 12 whole than have OUT stuck in B12. (If Fox agrees, although they’re unlikely to make whole). But that’s only 2-3 years post-OUT, maybe 1, and not really impactful to further realignment. It may delay things knowing we have good TV money until 2025, but no one is staying or coming because of it

Much easier for espn to to the same thing in ACC since they are exclusive rights holder. Move ACC teams up in pay to SEC, keep enough other schools whole in B12 to get dissolution votes, and move a few to AAC

 

[isucy86]

Wasn’t that a widely held belief- basically that we’ll be made whole until the end of the current deal, which is basically just using GOR as leveraged. It’s better for espn to move OuT and make big 12 whole than have OUT stuck in B12. (If Fox agrees, although they’re unlikely to make whole). But that’s only 2-3 years post-OUT, maybe 1, and not really impactful to further realignment. It may delay things knowing we have good TV money until 2025, but no one is staying or coming because of it

Yes. It is pretty safe to assume that the 8 schools would do everything in their power to keep media rights revenue intact through 24/25 FY. Otherwise, why have a GOR.

But I think there could be a lot of crazy happenings over the next couple years with the Big10's new deal starting July 1, 2023 & the Pac12 looking for a new TV deal to start July 1, 2024.

The key, individually or as a break-off group, do any Pac12 schools bring around $60M annually in TV media rights value? The combination of Texas & OU's TV rights value in the Big12 was in the area of $100-$125M annually PER SCHOOL. If a group of 4 Pac 12 schools could bring $250M annually in TV media rights value, then the Big10 & SEC are definitely going to be interested. Not sure it makes sense if only 2 or 3 Pac 12 schools standalone exceed the $60M threshold.

The SEC will be aggressive. If they can expand to 20-24 teams, they can create their own playoff and name a champ. Afterall, 5 of 8 national champs over the Playoff period have been SEC teams. Then it may just be a 5-10 year waiting period for the SEC to poach ACC's elite programs.

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

Yes. It is pretty safe to assume that the 8 schools would do everything in their power to keep media rights revenue intact through 24/25 FY. Otherwise, why have a GOR.

But I think there could be a lot of crazy happenings over the next couple years with the Big10's new deal starting July 1, 2023 & the Pac12 looking for a new TV deal to start July 1, 2024.

The key, individually or as a break-off group, do any Pac12 schools bring around $60M annually in TV media rights value? The combination of Texas & OU's TV rights value in the Big12 was in the area of $100-$125M annually PER SCHOOL. If a group of 4 Pac 12 schools could bring $250M annually in TV media rights value, then the Big10 & SEC are definitely going to be interested. Not sure it makes sense if only 2 or 3 Pac 12 schools standalone exceed the $60M threshold.

The SEC will be aggressive. If they can expand to 20-24 teams, they can create their own playoff and name a champ. Afterall, 5 of 8 national champs over the Playoff period have been SEC teams. Then it may just be a 5-10 year waiting period for the SEC to poach ACC's elite programs.

Can a conference expand though to 20-24 teams and still remain a conference. At 16 you can use the pod system and everything works out to playing every team in the league twice every 4 years. Move that number to 20 you end up with uneven scheduling like the Big 10 has now.
At 16, with 4 pods, you can do 3 against the teams in your pod, then 2 games against each other pod that puts you at 9 games. Allowing you to play every school twice in four years with one on the road and one at home. At 20 or more, you lose that option.

 

[WhoISthis]

Yes. It is pretty safe to assume that the 8 schools would do everything in their power to keep media rights revenue intact through 24/25 FY. Otherwise, why have a GOR.

But I think there could be a lot of crazy happenings over the next couple years with the Big10's new deal starting July 1, 2023 & the Pac12 looking for a new TV deal to start July 1, 2024.

The key, individually or as a break-off group, do any Pac12 schools bring around $60M annually in TV media rights value? The combination of Texas & OU's TV rights value in the Big12 was in the area of $100-$125M annually PER SCHOOL. If a group of 4 Pac 12 schools could bring $250M annually in TV media rights value, then the Big10 & SEC are definitely going to be interested. Not sure it makes sense if only 2 or 3 Pac 12 schools standalone exceed the $60M threshold.

The SEC will be aggressive. If they can expand to 20-24 teams, they can create their own playoff and name a champ. Afterall, 5 of 8 national champs over the Playoff period have been SEC teams. Then it may just be a 5-10 year waiting period for the SEC to poach ACC's elite programs.

I generally agree, but the key is can 4 number of Pac12 schools bring in $250 million annually as BIG teams. Their valuation as BIG teams should be MUCH higher than what it is in Pac12.

Which is also why it makes more sense for the Big 12 to poach the Pac 12 even. They need to not be Pac12 brands to reach their valuation potentials (need more timeslots and markets that watch college sports). It is clearly higher in the BIG with the brands and population base they have, plus shared history

On the Pac 12 though, unless they have found a foolish streaming buyer, their position so weak, they likely don't need equal revenue sharing initially. the BIG can make what they otherwise would, and then the addition of the Pac12 is simply an opportunity cost. One the BIG presidents may go for if saving the Pac12 while also getting Stanford, Berkeley, UW, and UCLA as BIG/BTAA brands. The Pac12 would benefit from simply using realignment to drop Oregon St, Washington St, and Arizona St, and get their network leveraged by fox and bundled with BTN. Adding over a dollar to their average carriage fee and into millions of more homes is a big increase for them, and that's just better population taxation, they would still have the aforementioned valuation increase.

Completely agree on the SEC. There is value to them and the SEC if they add more brands simply if it allows them to have the leverage to separate with ESPN exclusive provider. They rather partner with the BIG (with Pac12 division), but at 20-24 they could leave and make more per team than the BIG-Pac12. I think they need the ACC basketball brands (and KU) to do that, because the basketball tournament is a huge potential profit generator. Add Clemson, FSU, UNC, Duke, UVa, VT, KU, NCSt or Miami and align with the G5 and Big 12, and the BIG would fold.

 

[CYCLNST8]

The thought of sharing a conference with Memphis, Boise, SMU, San Diego State or nearly any other option is really off-putting

Boise State is fun, but she’s not the girl you bring home to mom.

 

[Nolaeer]

I dont think OU or texas are going anywhere until after the big 12 TV contract expires. Whatever hope ESPN, the SEC, and Texas had of coughing up a huge chunk of cash to leave early went down in flames with texas worst season since 1950.

Texas boosters are not going to cough up a huge chunk of change to escape the big 12, only to see even more ass beatings in the SEC west. I think the folks in Austin now hope to climb back in the saddle and maybe exit the big 12 respectfully with at least a ccg or title, rather than than leaving with their tail between their legs.

OU losing their coach also has to sting. And give them fresh insight into where their place is in the new era of college football.

If the new big 12 gets an auto invite to the cfp(they will), the incentive to leave for greener pastures will be diminished. Yeah nebraska makes more money in the BIG, but their national title winning football program is in the ashes.

BTW, WVU cant leave the Big 12 even if they got an invite to the ACC. WVU ad already said as much. money isnt there to pay the exit fee. I doubt OU has the money for the exit fee either. Texas does, but it is an astronomical number, that they wont pay just to get their faces planted in the mud earlier.

 

[WhoISthis]

Can a conference expand though to 20-24 teams and still remain a conference. At 16 you can use the pod system and everything works out to playing every team in the league twice every 4 years. Move that number to 20 you end up with uneven scheduling like the Big 10 has now.
At 16, with 4 pods, you can do 3 against the teams in your pod, then 2 games against each other pod that puts you at 9 games. Allowing you to play every school twice in four years with one on the road and one at home. At 20 or more, you lose that option.

Just think of divisions as the new conference. Expanded playoffs will allow it. Conference semifinals are added. With this level of realignment it basically a P2 top tier. Going to 11 conference games isn't an issue imo, it brings back value to inter-conference post-season matchups. 5 games against your division every year, rotate through the other 3 divisions.

OU, UT, A&M, Arkansas, MU, KU
LSU, Ole Miss, MSU, Bama, Auburn, Vandy
UGa, UF, Tennessee, VT, USC, Kentucky
Clemson, FSU, UNC, Duke, UVa NC St

 

[WhoISthis]

I dont think OU or texas are going anywhere until after the big 12 TV contract expires. Whatever hope ESPN, the SEC, and Texas had of coughing up a huge chunk of cash to leave early went down in flames with texas worst season since 1950.

Texas boosters are not going to cough up a huge chunk of change to escape the big 12, only to see even more ass beatings in the SEC west. I think the folks in Austin now hope to climb back in the saddle and maybe exit the big 12 respectfully with at least a ccg or title, rather than than leaving with their tail between their legs.

OU losing their coach also has to sting. And give them fresh insight into where their place is in the new era of college football.

If the new big 12 gets an auto invite to the cfp(they will), the incentive to leave for greener pastures will be diminished. Yeah nebraska makes more money in the BIG, but their national title winning football program is in the ashes.

BTW, WVU cant leave the Big 12 even if they got an invite to the ACC. WVU ad already said as much. money isnt there to pay the exit fee. I doubt OU has the money for the exit fee either. Texas does, but it is an astronomical number, that they wont pay just to get their faces planted in the mud earlier.

Did you watch much of this year? I don't think it matters what conference you're in if you're losing to KU. If anything, they are running to lose to better brands instead.

Plus, they have maybe 1 more sure loss in the SEC than the Big 12, there is not much difference in the balance of the schedule

 

[20eyes]

Can a conference expand though to 20-24 teams and still remain a conference. At 16 you can use the pod system and everything works out to playing every team in the league twice every 4 years. Move that number to 20 you end up with uneven scheduling like the Big 10 has now.
At 16, with 4 pods, you can do 3 against the teams in your pod, then 2 games against each other pod that puts you at 9 games. Allowing you to play every school twice in four years with one on the road and one at home. At 20 or more, you lose that option.

My sense is that the SEC is thinking long term about being an entirely separate NFL lite. So they wouldn't care about being a conference if they can be an elite league...

 

[isucy86]

My sense is that the SEC is thinking long term about being an entirely separate NFL lite. So they wouldn't care about being a conference if they can be an elite league...

You nailed it.

When the 12 team playoff was proposed last summer, the annual projected revenue along with New Year's day Bowls was $2B! If the SEC can poach itself into being the Premier League of college football, why settle for being 1 of 5 conferences that split $2B?

For the SEC to become a League, the one critical aspect is there are other schools that can bring $60M TV rights value annually. Who are those schools? Are there enough schools to make revenue/school close to what SEC schools will make when ESPN replaces CBS and OU/UT come aboard? It helps tremendously if schools like USC is valued closer to $100M like Texas & OU. Then the SEC can still bring on some schools that might be valued at $40-50M.

The roadmap is pretty straightforward:

1. Add a group of Pac12 schools that can bring around $60M/school annually.
2. Look at the Big12, are there any schools that might be in the $40M+ range annually? Bring those schools onboard.
3. How solid is the ACC GOR? The SEC could hope the ACC blows up. ESPN would have a vested interest in blowing up the ACC Network as much as the top handful of ACC schools. But the SEC could be patient for a decade or until the current ACC GOR penalties become less onerous than SEC TV $.

The kicker in this whole TV Rights gravy train is the playoff. If the SEC can bring in all the top schools outside the Big10, they can brand themselves as the College Football League and the Big10 as the AFL or ABA. This way the SEC can split $2B among 20-30 schools league vs. splitting with the other P5 Conferences & G5 Conference schools.

Think about it, even if the playoff is only worth $1.5B, split 30 ways, it is worth $50M/school annually. Cha-Ching.