Big 12 Championship Game Computer Projection

[cymonw1980]

I believe the Sugar Bowl is obligated to take the winner of the championship game unless they are in the playoffs, and then it is required to take the loser of the championship game (unless they also make the playoffs?).
This site:
https://www.dish.com/dig/sports/explaining-the-sugar-bowl-selection-process/
states it is the 2nd place team, BUT that was before the Big 12 added a conference championship game. I could not find any update since, so it seems likely to presume it would still be 2nd place, not the Sugar Bowl's choice.
Interestingly, the article notes the Sugar Bowl contract is different with the SEC, where the SEC will send the next highest ranked team in the CFP rankings (which still is not the Sugar Bowl's choice).

I think the key difference is that the SEC has two divisions. So, let's say, the championship game was:

West Champ: 12-0
East Champ: 9-3

... and the runner up in the east was 11-1. The conference wanted the 11-1 team to go over the 9-4 team (if the East were to lose in this example).

The B12 can have similar examples based on how teams perform out of conference. But much less likely given the fact that every team plays against each other. But it can happen.. For example, this year, if the Sugar Bowl must take the loser of CCG assuming winner is in playoffs (long shot at this point that OU would make it) ISU could go the Sugar Bowl as an 8-4 runner up, while W could be left out at 9-2.

 

[Dale]

Reminder from a few pages ago in this thread: If ISU and OSU both win (and they're both ahead right now), Iowa State controls its own destiny for getting to the Big 12 Championship Game.

 

[Dale]

After the results of the Big 12 games today, except Texas/Tech:

Oklahoma: 85.7% (61.0% 1st, 24.7% 2nd)
West Virginia: 63.5% (33.4% 1st, 30.1% 2nd)
Iowa St.: 33.5% (5.4% 1st, 28.1% 2nd)
Texas: 17.3% (0.2% 1st, 17.2% 2nd)

Probably a bit lower than that for ISU after the ratings I use update tomorrow. Oklahoma's looking worse and West Virginia's looking better -- both of which hurt ISU, who would be helped out immensely by OU beating WV.

Tech winning helps ISU by about 2%; Texas winning does the opposite. The game only matters in the less-and-less-likely 7-4 scenario for ISU, however.

ISU odds of championship game at record:
6-5: 0.0%
7-4: 7.9%
8-3: 75.3%

 

[Cydkar]

I truly don’t think OU will beat West Virginia. OU couldn’t keep Iowa under 40 points.

Reverse jinx...activate!

 

[Beyerball]

Bottom line...We need to win out and OU needs to beat WV...Bedlam is a Unique game though so I kinda throw that out the window..

OU might very well feel they are playing for a shot at the playoffs vs WV and bring their A game...OU is certainly capable of beating WV.

 

[Dale]

Bottom line...We need to win out and OU needs to beat WV...

Or OSU needs to beat WV -- which isn't that improbable, particularly being at OSU. Or Kansas needs to win at OU, which...well, I really don't need to say more.

None of those happen, ISU's run is officially over.

 

[demoncore1031]

Tech is getting some nice pressure on the Texas QB. Seems like they have 4 or 5 sacks already.

 

[ForeverIowan]

Or OSU needs to beat WV -- which isn't that improbable, particularly being at OSU. Or Kansas needs to win at OU, which...well, I really don't need to say more.

None of those happen, ISU's run is officially over.

Okie State takes WVU to the woodshed next weekend in Sillwater.

 

[cyclonepower]

Okie State takes WVU to the woodshed next weekend in Sillwater.

I would say the opposite after a heartbreaking loss in a rivalry game

 

[StLouisClone]

WVU still has a lot of work to do, but they might feel like this is their year after that amazing win in Austin. I thought for sure they would pick up another loss after our game. Now I'm not so sure.

 

[BWRhasnoAC]

WVU still has a lot of work to do, but they might feel like this is their year after that amazing win in Austin. I thought for sure they would pick up another loss after our game. Now I'm not so sure.

They have to go to Okey State never an easy out, and have OU the last game of the season. You know that one is going to be a slobber knocker.

 

[Tailg8er]

They have to go to Okey State never an easy out, and have OU the last game of the season. You know that one is going to be a slobber knocker.

Yeah, Okie State has played the top 3 teams close. I'm hoping they make next weekend that much better for us.

 

[Dale]

Today's games really simplified things.

Every scenario in which ISU makes the Big 12 Championship Game:

Iowa State wins out and:

• Kansas beats Oklahoma; or
• West Virginia loses to Oklahoma or OSU

Iowa State beats Texas but loses to KSU and:

• West Virginia loses out; or
• Oklahoma loses out and Texas beats Kansas.
  

 

[BWRhasnoAC]

That TCU loss.... *growl*

 

[Cydkar]

The bright side is that we get a guaranteed win and another day a JTS if we don't go to the B12 Championship game.

Just sayin'.

 

[DeereClone]

The bright side is that we get a guaranteed win and another day a JTS if we don't go to the B12 Championship game.

Just sayin'.

Meh

Dallas or bust

 

[spitfyr36]

That TCU loss.... *growl*

Really want that one back, why couldn't we start the Purdy show one week earlier...
Which is the worst loss TCU or Iowa, just based on team?

 

[CapnCy]

The bright side is that we get a guaranteed win and another day a JTS if we don't go to the B12 Championship game.

Just sayin'.

Maybe not....a game thursday will determine if Incarnate Word makes playoffs.

Obviously, I want Dallas....but if not want the last game for the W and reps....because adding a W always looks good.

Also, NEED the KSU W

 

[Dale]

Updated odds:

Odds of making the B12 CG:
West Virginia: 71.0% (44.3% 1st, 26.7% 2nd)
Oklahoma: 67.0% (48.8% 1st, 18.2% 2nd)
Texas: 35.7% (0.2% 1st, 35.5% 2nd)
Iowa St.: 26.3% (6.7% 1st, 19.7% 2nd)
Everyone else: no chance

Possible matchups:
Oklahoma/West Virginia: 38.0%
Texas/West Virginia: 26.2%
Iowa St./Oklahoma: 19.5%
Oklahoma/Texas: 9.5%
Iowa St./West Virginia: 6.8%

ISU record chances:
7-5: 6.4%
8-4: 55.7%
9-3: 37.9%

ISU odds of B12 CG at record:
7-5: 0.0%
8-4: 1.5%
9-3: 67.2%

WV's ranking in Massey's system (which I use for this) went way up this week, which is bad for Iowa State. That's why Iowa State's odds went down from 35% despite the victory over Baylor.

 

[Dale]

Iowa State odds with win over Texas: 61.0%
Iowa State odds with loss to Texas: 0.0%