If I was the coach, from what i know know about both players, I would redshirt Arnaud but it doesnt seem like that will happen so I'll go without it, but I would redshirt Bates when he gets here. We should be looking to have Arnaud our starting QB as a Junior with 2 years under Bret. That same year, Bates' redshirt will come off giving him 2 years under Arnaud.
Ideally, i would redshirt Arnaud and Bates and just have them battle it out. in this case, I think that Bates would only get one year of starting QB. if he realizes this early on he could transfer, on the other hand, he could pull an Austin Flynn and be a stud for us at another position. In any case, its hard to tell until he gets on campus and we see what he has surroundong him.