3/6 Bracketology

[ISU3PtLand]

Bracketology - Women's College Basketball Brackets and Predictions - ESPN

Just doing some tweaks to the bracket. As previously said, ISU is now listed as one of the last four in.

I'm still confused as to how North Carolina is still in the tournament. Their RPI (87) and SOS (90) are abismal.

I don't see a lot of opportunities for us to get bumped other than surprises in the Colonial conference (Delaware) and Pac-12 (Stanford). The other conferences are one-bidders.

Plain and simple - win against Kansas State on Thursday and we are locked in. Lose and we start sweating BIG time.

 

[SC Cy]

I'd say we should be grateful (and safe) simply by having the First Round in Ames.

 

[Three4Cy]

Horizon League would be the other conference to watch with Green Bay. If they lose someone will get bumped.

 

[cmoore_23]

yeah I don't see how they can possibly leave us out plus they have Iowa in no way we aren't if they are in

 

[Testing123]

I'm still confused as to how North Carolina is still in the tournament. Their RPI (87) and SOS (90) are abismal.

Basically, their RPI is being brought down somewhat artificially by just how subterranean the bottom half of their schedule is. Of their 31 games, 14 were against sub-200 teams. Five of those were against sub-300 teams. (For comparison, Iowa State's schedule, which was no great shakes outside of conference, had five sub-200 teams, one of which was also a sub-300 team.)

On the other hand, North Carolina's second-worse RPI loss is no. 31 South Carolina, and eight of their 11 losses were against teams with RPIs 14 or better. (They have one really bad loss, no. 245 Clemson at home.) They also have a very good win against RPI no. 12 Miami of Florida and two decent wins just outside the RPI top 50.

To me that's not enough, especially when there are better teams that Creme leaves out -- Southern Cal has three top-30 wins (although three bad losses), Michigan has four top-50 wins and only one bad loss, Oklahoma State has four top-50 wins (including no. 8 A&M) and only one bad loss, etc. But there's a reasonable case to be made for the Tar Heels.

(Iowa State's case, by the way, looks much stronger than any of these schools -- six top-50 wins, including RPI 20 twice and RPI 22, and their worst loss is at no. 68.)

 

[twistedredbird]

NC is not tourney worthy. They have been blown out bad by several teams, and lost to cellar dweller Clemson. If they get in, it is only because of their name and the "respect" for their coach in the WBB circles. Besides their one win to Miami (their second game vs Miami was a blow out), their 2nd best win is versus #51 Virginia.

 

[mred]

Middle Tennessee just lost in OT to UALR. UALR is sub-100 while MTSU is a few spots ahead of us in RPI. They join us on the bubble, although their 1-5 record vs top 50 (compared to our 6-9) makes me think we should go in ahead of them.

 

[twistedredbird]

Middle Tennessee just lost in OT to UALR. UALR is sub-100 while UALR is a few spots ahead of us in RPI. They join us on the bubble, although their 1-5 record vs top 50 (compared to our 6-9) makes me think we should go in ahead of them.

MTSU's win over KY was somewhat of a head scratcher.

 

[Three4Cy]

MTSU's win over KY was somewhat of a head scratcher.

They played at MTSU.

Creme now says UNC out, MTSU to a 10 seed. We are now team # 62, as Temple is above us as the last four in.


North Carolina out in latest Women's Bracketology update - ESPN

 

[Three4Cy]

Charlie has made some changes, has Rutgers going to Chapel Hill with UNC out and UWGB coming to Ames.

http://espn.go.com/womens-college-basketball/bracketology

 

[acoustimac]

Charlie has made some changes, has Rutgers going to Chapel Hill with UNC out and UWGB coming to Ames.

Bracketology - Women's College Basketball Brackets and Predictions - ESPN

UWGB would love a little revenge on us...

 

[BenEClone]

Bracketology - Women's College Basketball Brackets and Predictions - ESPN

I'm still confused as to how North Carolina is still in the tournament. Their RPI (87) and SOS (90) are abismal.

RPI is a little like the BCS - lots of criticism annually, but, it sticks around. Up to this point in the season, most bracket projections are strictly a mathematical model based on the rules and the rpi. The reference to NC is a chink in the armor - Creme trying to factor in what he sees as actual team strength. The RPI can be misleading, but, generally, the higher the RPI, the better the team. A team and even a conference can manipulate its RPI by skillful scheduling. I saw a story indicating that Jerry Palm has hired out as a consultant to increase RPI, not by playing better, but, by better scheduling. In terms of power and record, We are no worse than "as good as" KSU, yet our (Realtime) rpi is 42 and KSU is at 17. NCAA numbers may be different. I hope the committee does look at more than rpi. A W in KC would help.

 

[twistedredbird]

I will be real curious to compare Creme's bracketology to the real deal. After spending some time reviewing it, it is clear that he views the Big 12 in a lesser light, and isn't putting a whole lot of stock in RPI.

For example:

RPI 8 - no bad losses, SOS - 2
RPI 9 - loss to #178, SOS - 25

both have a win over the same Big East opponent

RPI 9 team - KY a 2 seed
RPI 8 team - Texas A&M a 4 seed

Two 10 seeds -

RPI 42 - no bad losses SOS - 20 3 top 25 RPI wins
RPI 60 - 3 losses to sub 100 teams - SOS - 60, 3 top 25 wins

42 - Iowa St.
60 - Michigan St.

Similarly OU with a RPI of 21 getting a 8 seed?

KSU RPI 17, SOS #3, and a 9 seed.

While I think KSU's RPI is somewhat inflated, they do have non-conference wins over tourney teams Marist, BYU, Iowa, Missouri St., South Dakota St.

 

[twistedredbird]

RPI is a little like the BCS - lots of criticism annually, but, it sticks around. Up to this point in the season, most bracket projections are strictly a mathematical model based on the rules and the rpi. The reference to NC is a chink in the armor - Creme trying to factor in what he sees as actual team strength. The RPI can be misleading, but, generally, the higher the RPI, the better the team. A team and even a conference can manipulate its RPI by skillful scheduling. I saw a story indicating that Jerry Palm has hired out as a consultant to increase RPI, not by playing better, but, by better scheduling. In terms of power and record, We are no worse than "as good as" KSU, yet our (Realtime) rpi is 42 and KSU is at 17. NCAA numbers may be different. I hope the committee does look at more than rpi. A W in KC would help.

KSU has much better non-con wins than us. They have 5 top 100 - lowest was 66, we have one - Iowa. Usually Drake and UNI count for something, but this year, they're down.

 

[BenEClone]

KSU has much better non-con wins than us. They have 5 top 100 - lowest was 66, we have one - Iowa. Usually Drake and UNI count for something, but this year, they're down.

True, and these things effect RPI, but, I don't think it fairly represents the relative strength of the teams.

 

[Three4Cy]

With Texas losing tonight, their bubble may burst, especially since they were blown out by TTU. If MU could hang on and beat OSU that would keep them out too.

 

[Sobchakcyclone]

With Texas losing tonight, their bubble may burst, especially since they were blown out by TTU. If MU could hang on and beat OSU that would keep them out too.

They're not exactly hanging on, they've made it a 20 point game. MU is leaving it on the floor tonight. Not sure I'm thrilled by that.

 

[Three4Cy]

They're not exactly hanging on, they've made it a 20 point game. MU is leaving it on the floor tonight. Not sure I'm thrilled by that.

MU nearly blows a 25 point lead but holds on to win 72-68 over OSU. OSU's bubble just burst. If that game had gone on a few more minutes, MU would have lost.

 

[twistedredbird]

Shame that TX can't deliver with all that talent.

 

[Wesley]

Shame that TX can't deliver with all that talent.

That seems to be the case for most of texas this year. Their state teams have had better years.