2024-25 ISU FB Early Predictions and Offseason Discussion

[Jer]

Thought I'd get a new thread rolling now that people are starting to digest who's coming and going, what the schedule looks like, etc. A lot of teams return key pieces on offense with very little turnover in skill positions from this past season. Will that be enough to keep relatively status-quo? What team will surprise?

The first "Too Early" Big 12 Power Rankings I've seen...

Big 12 Football: Way-Too-Early Power Rankings For 2024 Season

The 16-team era of Big 12 football begins in 2024. It's time to get a way-too-early look at who the top teams are with some power rankings.

kslsports.com

1. Arizona
2. Oklahoma State
3. Utah
4. Kansas
5. West Virginia
6. Kansas State
7. Iowa State
8. TCU
9. Texas Tech
10. UCF
11. Colorado
12. BYU
13. Baylor
14. Arizona State
15. Houston
16. Cincinnati

 

[Cyclonepride]

I am going to guess ISU at 5th. So much returning experience, and perhaps most importantly, a lot of O linemen with a full year of experience under Clanton

 

[JP4CY]

WV too high

 

[Jer]

I think 1-4 are probably pretty solid bets right now (lots can change with Portal, etc) and then I think 6-8 could be pretty interchangeable. 9-16 is a crapshoot

 

[Hubbs4cy]

I think there is a tier 1a with AZ, OSU, Utah. Then 1b with a bunch of teams that wouldn't surprise if they made a run at title KU, KSU, TCU, TTU. Then tier 2 where ISU lives with a bunch of other teams.

 

[AuH2O]

WV too high

Yes. With unbalanced schedules it matters a lot.

As a comparison to ISU, both were 6-3 in the league. The records of the teams that each MISSED on their league schedule were:
WVU: 27-9
ISU: 16-20

WVUs unbalanced schedule was unbelievably favorable. ISUs was unfavorable.

I'd flip WVU to 7 and move KSU and ISU up to 5-6.

 

[Malty Flannel]

Bowman potentially getting a 7th year of eligibility is insane. If he does not get his waiver, I'm not sold on OSU as a top 3 team.

AZ and Utah look like safe bets to be near the top. ISU has potential to be top 4, as do KSU and KU. I would not sleep on TCU or TTU either.

 

[cyfan21]

I expect this team to be in the top 5-6 teams and competing for a decent bowl next year. I want to see big jumps from the O & D-Line this offseason and spring ball.

 

[LarryISU]

Don't unbalanced schedules make this a total crapshoot? There might be one or two schools that COULD win every game. But for most, the number of winnable games will depend every year on the assigned opponents. I think our 2024 schedule is fairly favorable, and we should have a better team, so I would expect a top 6 finish.

 

[cyfan92]

Can someone with more time calculate the conference record of the 16 teams next year while taking out 2023 games played against UT, OU, Oregon, and Washington.

This will tell me two things.

1. Who can win against their peers versus the more talented programs
2. Who ducked the top dogs in 2023

Next you can look at who in 2024 doesn't have to play or plays the least amount of conference games against Arizona, Utah, K-State, and Oklahoma St.

These mega conference are now built to favor those with the least challenging schedule (Look at the B1G West for example)

 

[Cyclonepride]

I do feel like Arizona is on the rise, but switching into a different conference with different playstyles and team compositions can be tough (see Houston, BYU, Cincinnati, UCF), so while I think they have a chance at being at or near the top, it wouldn't surprise me to see them slide to the middle. It's not like they have been a perennial power either, so their rise is really recent.

 

[Jer]

I do feel like Arizona is on the rise, but switching into a different conference with different playstyles and team compositions can be tough (see Houston, BYU, Cincinnati, UCF), so while I think they have a chance at being at or near the top, it wouldn't surprise me to see them slide to the middle. It's not like they have been a perennial power either, so their rise is really recent.

I don't disagree, but as of right now I think they have the most balanced team and don't lose any key pieces (not certain). Of course, all of this is a crapshoot and doesn't factor in a lot of movement from the Portal still to come. It should be a pretty competitive year for the top 1/3 of the league - and maybe even a bit deeper.

 

[acoustimac]

Those picks seem perfectly reasonable to me. I’m not sold on ISU or WVU until I see proof against the competition. WVU played a light weight schedule this past year and every ISU weakness was exposed in the bowl game.

 

[t-noah]

1. It will take a bit of getting used to a 16 team league.
2. It will take a while to get used to not having OuT. That didn't take long! Over them. Ready for the next step.
3. Not a good time for Baylor and Cincinnati to be floundering. I'm OK with that.
4. Arizona and KU are peaking at just the right time. We will see.
5. I'm interested to see if Utah steps up to become one of the top teams, over the next 3-4 years.
6. Get ready for another Prime time, Big 12 edition. It will be good for the conference though.
7. Lucky 7? Iowa State has a chance to make a mark.

 

[Statefan10]

Can someone with more time calculate the conference record of the 16 teams next year while taking out 2023 games played against UT, OU, Oregon, and Washington.

This will tell me two things.

1. Who can win against their peers versus the more talented programs
2. Who ducked the top dogs in 2023

Next you can look at who in 2024 doesn't have to play or plays the least amount of conference games against Arizona, Utah, K-State, and Oklahoma St.

These mega conference are now built to favor those with the least challenging schedule (Look at the B1G West for example)

Arizona : 10-2 (Loss to Washington)
ASU : 3-7 (Losses to Oregon & Washington)
Baylor : 3-8 (Loss to Texas)
BYU : 5-5 (Losses to Oklahoma & Texas)
Cincy : 3-8 (Loss to Oklahoma)
Colorado : 4-7 (Loss to Oregon)
Houston : 4-7 (Loss to Texas)
Iowa State : 7-4 (Losses to Oklahoma & Texas)
Kansas : 8-3 (Win vs. Oklahoma & Loss to Texas)
Kansas State : 9-3 (Loss to Texas)
Oklahoma State : 9-3 (Win vs. Oklahoma & Loss to Texas)
TCU : 5-5 (Losses to Oklahoma & Texas)
Texas Tech : 7-5 (Loss to Texas)
UCF : 6-6 (Loss to Oklahoma)
Utah : 8-3 (Losses to Oregon & Washington)
West Virginia : 9-3 (Loss to Oklahoma)

 

[t-noah]

Thought I'd get a new thread rolling now that people are starting to digest who's coming and going, what the schedule looks like, etc. A lot of teams return key pieces on offense with very little turnover in skill positions from this past season. Will that be enough to keep relatively status-quo? What team will surprise?

The first "Too Early" Big 12 Power Rankings I've seen...

Big 12 Football: Way-Too-Early Power Rankings For 2024 Season

The 16-team era of Big 12 football begins in 2024. It's time to get a way-too-early look at who the top teams are with some power rankings.

kslsports.com

1. Arizona
2. Oklahoma State
3. Utah
4. Kansas
5. West Virginia
6. Kansas State
7. Iowa State
8. TCU
9. Texas Tech
10. UCF
11. Colorado
12. BYU
13. Baylor
14. Arizona State
15. Houston
16. Cincinnati

I have a feeling that TCU and Tech will both jump a couple of spots on this list. Will they is debatable.

 

[ClonesTwenty1]

8-4 or bust. A lot of returning starters on offense.

 

[cyfan92]

Arizona : 10-2 (Loss to Washington)
ASU : 3-7 (Losses to Oregon & Washington)
Baylor : 3-8 (Loss to Texas)
BYU : 5-5 (Losses to Oklahoma & Texas)
Cincy : 3-8 (Loss to Oklahoma)
Colorado : 4-7 (Loss to Oregon)
Houston : 4-7 (Loss to Texas)
Iowa State : 7-4 (Losses to Oklahoma & Texas)
Kansas : 8-3 (Win vs. Oklahoma & Loss to Texas)
Kansas State : 9-3 (Loss to Texas)
Oklahoma State : 9-3 (Win vs. Oklahoma & Loss to Texas)
TCU : 5-5 (Losses to Oklahoma & Texas)
Texas Tech : 7-5 (Loss to Texas)
UCF : 6-6 (Loss to Oklahoma)
Utah : 8-3 (Losses to Oregon & Washington)
West Virginia : 9-3 (Loss to Oklahoma)

Thanks, so...

Arizona : 10-1
ASU : 3-5
Baylor : 3-7
BYU : 5-3
Cincy : 3-7
Colorado : 4-6
Houston : 4-6
Iowa State : 7-2
Kansas : 7-2
Kansas State : 9-2
Oklahoma State : 8-2
TCU : 5-3
Texas Tech : 7-4
UCF : 6-5
Utah : 8-1
West Virginia : 9-2

Tier 1 is AZ, KSU, and Utah

Tier 2 is ISU, KU, OSU, and WV

Tier 3 is BYU, TCU, Tech, and UCF

Tier 4 is ASU, Baylor, Cincy, Colorado, Houston

ISU plays:

2 from tier 1 (Home and Away),
2 from tier 2 (Both Away)
2 from tier 3 (Both home)
3 from tier 4 (2 home and 1 away)

I don't love that 1/3 of our conference games and 3/4 road games are against competition who placed in the "top 1/2" of this proxy Big 12 (@WVU, @utah, @KU).. Home slate looks very winnable for all games (KSU by far the hardest) as 4/5 of our home games are against teams that were "bottom 1/2" teams.

Thankful to avoid OSU and AZ but would be nice to play ASU and CU next season. Welcome to the new Big 12

 

[synapticwave]

Thanks, so...

Arizona : 10-1
ASU : 3-5
Baylor : 3-7
BYU : 5-3
Cincy : 3-7
Colorado : 4-6
Houston : 4-6
Iowa State : 7-2
Kansas : 7-2
Kansas State : 9-2
Oklahoma State : 8-2
TCU : 5-3
Texas Tech : 7-4
UCF : 6-5
Utah : 8-1
West Virginia : 9-2

Tier 1 is AZ, KSU, and Utah

Tier 2 is ISU, KU, OSU, and WV

Tier 3 is BYU, TCU, Tech, and UCF

Tier 4 is ASU, Baylor, Cincy, Colorado, Houston

ISU plays:

2 from tier 1 (Home and Away),
2 from tier 2 (Both Away)
2 from tier 3 (Both home)
3 from tier 4 (2 home and 1 away)

I don't love that 1/3 of our conference games and 3/4 road games are against competition who placed in the "top 1/2" of this proxy Big 12 (@WVU, @utah, @KU).. Home slate looks very winnable for all games (KSU by far the hardest) as 4/5 of our home games are against teams that were "bottom 1/2" teams.

Thankful to avoid OSU and AZ but would be nice to play ASU and CU next season. Welcome to the new Big 12

Looks like OP had removed the games from the team's overall records already. ISU was 7-6 but he had us as 7-4 for example (2 losses already removed from from OuT).

 

[isucy86]

I do feel like Arizona is on the rise, but switching into a different conference with different playstyles and team compositions can be tough (see Houston, BYU, Cincinnati, UCF), so while I think they have a chance at being at or near the top, it wouldn't surprise me to see them slide to the middle. It's not like they have been a perennial power either, so their rise is really recent.

I wouldn't put Arizona and their record in the 2023 Pac12 on par with Houston, UC and UCF results in 2022 AAC and then their fall in Big12. The Pac12 was a very solid conference in 2023 with UW, UO, USC, OSU, etc. Arizona's coach has had them on an upward trajectory for the last 3 years.

Seems like Arizona and Kansas have the least question marks going into 2024 based on 2023 and returning top tier QB's.

Utah would seemed to be in a good spot with Rising back. But he's had injury issues and they seem to have more roster question marks. OSU's the reverse, picking them 2nd seems entirely based on Bowman getting a 7th year. Like a lot of people, I am skeptical about WVU.

I like where ISU sits going into 2024 with Becht, Sama, Noel, Higgins and Brahmer. ISU's ceiling is going to rest on OL, DL & LB position groups. And the staff figuring ways to make our defense more disruptive for opposing QB's.