2024-2025 MBB computer projections thread

[Sigmapolis]

Time for the thread for next year!

Some good stuff starting here...

https://cyclonefanatic.com/forum/th...ojections-thread.278155/page-114#post-9377522

I will post the most relevant graphic to restart things over here -- the Torvik preseason projections.

https://barttorvik.com/trankpre.php

#2 nationally right now
#2 in the stacked Big 12

 

[ChickenNuggetMan]

Can’t wait to get all nerdy in here next season!

 

[Sigmapolis]

Adding Jefferson and bringing back Fish...



Preseason #1 as of now on Torvik.

 

[Sigmapolis]

I know portal season isn't over, but still #2 on Torvik...



#2 in the absolutely stacked Big 12 (of 16)...

 

[interrobang]

I know portal season isn't over, but still #2 on Torvik...

View attachment 129452

#2 in the absolutely stacked Big 12 (of 16)...

View attachment 129453

Was nice having Kansas down last year, but having 1,2 and 3 will make for a crazy conference schedule.

 

[Nothingman]

Was nice having Kansas down last year, but having 1,2 and 3 will make for a crazy conference schedule.

I’m interested to see how Arizona does. I thought they would come in higher than 16 but I don’t know what they lost from last year. Will they step up with the competition or actually finish somewhere upper middle in the conference?

 

[FerShizzle]

I know portal season isn't over, but still #2 on Torvik...

View attachment 129452

#2 in the absolutely stacked Big 12 (of 16)...

View attachment 129453

I thought we were #1 !!!

Has TJ lost momentum?

 

[madguy30]

I thought we were #1 !!!

Has TJ lost momentum?

Out benched everyone and lost the locker room.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Creighton has to be the ultimate winner of the conference shuffle the past 20 years.

Go from good mid-major in the Valley to perennial contender for the Final Four and even the national title in a reconstituted Big East, which is probably the second-best basketball conference.

That's quite the jump.

 

[UnCytely]

Creighton has to be the ultimate winner of the conference shuffle the past 20 years.

Go from good mid-major in the Valley to perennial contender for the Final Four and even the national title in a reconstituted Big East, which is probably the second-best basketball conference.

That's quite the jump.

Greg McDermott is a good coach. He has made a good home for himself at Creighton and I wish the best for him. He gave us TJ, after all.

 

[CyberJJJ]

I’m interested to see how Arizona does. I thought they would come in higher than 16 but I don’t know what they lost from last year. Will they step up with the competition or actually finish somewhere upper middle in the conference?

They lost a $2 million center

 

[Sigmapolis]

Greg McDermott is a good coach. He has made a good home for himself at Creighton and I wish the best for him. He gave us TJ, after all.

I don't think Creighton being a top-ten quality program right now is simply a product of McDermott's coaching acumen (and yes I agree he's a good coach and a better one now than when in Ames). I don't consider the Creighton job like, say, Gonzaga, where Mark Few kind of is the whole story.

It looks like Creighton might be a monster going forward even post-McDermott. They have a new arena, are the "lead" college basketball team for the state of Nebraska in its largest city (we all know Nebraska fans wear scarlet in the fall and blue in the winter), have ample NIL funding under the current system, compete in the second-best conference in the Big East, and... don't have to support a football program.

The Big East schools without football programs or the ones with one who don't care (mostly UConn) are going to be dangerous for basketball because they can devote nearly all of the $22 million pay-for-play cap to men's basketball (or half of that depending on how the Title IX stuff ends up working out).

Big 12 schools, even basketball-centric ones like Kansas, will never be able to do that.

Again, Creighton won the lottery with the conference skullduggery. They've gone from a reputable program in the best of the mid-major conferences with the Valley to set up to be a perpetual Final Four contender in what is now the second and might end up the best basketball conference in the country.

Nobody else has "moved up" like that.

 

[Sigmapolis]

I did an analysis of the strength-of-schedule for the men's basketball team from last season compared to the projected strength-of-schedule for next season now most of the schedule is known:

-- 6 non-con cupcakes in Hilton
-- 1 Big 12/Big East challenge (Marquette at Iowa State)
-- 1 true road game (Iowa)
-- 3 games in Maui (against Auburn, Colorado, UConn, Dayton, Memphis, Michigan St., or UNC... we don't have a bracket yet, so it is a 3/7 chance of playing any one of them right now)
-- 20 Big 12 games (unknown who is played once and who is played twice)

The 31 games from last season had a step chart of net ratings that looks like this...



The projection for next year looks like this here. Again, I used the projected net ratings from Torvik for 2025 (these projections might change slightly as portal season wraps up). I also estimated the number of games played against Maui opponents (3/7 per opponent) and against Big 12 opponents (20/15 per opponent). The prodigal Colorado has the distinction of being in both buckets (0.4286 + 1.3333 = 1.7619 games).

That is 37/21 according to my fraction calculator.



Overlay them and you have something that looks like this chart...



Some brief observations...

-- Houston "coming back down to Earth" and the expected number of games against them decreasing from two (the two last season) to 1.3333 knocks down the high end of the projections

-- this just reminds me who the Cyclones play twice in the Big 12 schedule is going to be crucial to determining conference SoS and the conference win total for the conference title race

-- definitely some improvement in the #5 through #11 range with more Big 12 games and replacing a few of the weaker games in Orlando with some tougher opponents in the Maui tournament

-- Mississippi Valley St. is projected to be really bad next year... worse than any of the Q4 cupcakes last season

-- the "meat" of the schedule... #6 on up in red and #9 on up in blue... definitely expands slightly, though the quality of the opponents in there otherwise look to be similar to last season

-- my "wish list" of swapping out two cupcakes for a permanent home/home with Creighton and/or a regional peer and a Big 12/Big Ten challenge would step this up even another level