2024-2025 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
- Start date
Yeah, that's crazy good at 87%. I'm sure we could look it up, but I don't ever remember the Big 12 being too much over 80%...
He went from shooting 47% on two-point shots last year to shooting > 61% this year. Absolutely incredible improvement.
And it's not just him - Curtis has gone from 44% -> 56%; Tamin, even with his struggles, has gone from 45% -> 52%.
It'll be interesting to see if it lasts through the grind of conference play - but it's been true against the good teams and the bad so far. I also wonder if it was something the staff intentionally worked on this offseason - I have no idea how you teach what Keshon does.
The SEC is definitely on a path where they could have the most successful non conference in the modern era. Alabama and Auburn both have Top 10 strength of schedule rankings and as a whole the league has piled up a ton of Q1 wins.
I really think the way TJ runs a practice is the only way. "Daily habits" is the mantra but ISU plays a lot of 5 on 5 where not only are the guards practicing that gueling defense but they are practicing against it. Keshon is able to practice those incredible shots against elite level defense because that is what they do in practice every damn day.
Maybe the Cyclones will have a chance to pick off 6 SEC teams in the dance on their road to the national title.
I'd like to see what what the drill looks like if Gilbert or anyone is working solo on bodying up to finish through contact. Likely someone with a foam mat/shield type of thing?
It'd be interesting to find highest non-con % history for power leagues, historically, or maybe just past 25 years or so.
A different era, partly due to # of games & conference size, but seems like one year late'80s/early '90s Big 8 had a super-high non-league winning percentage. Can't for the life of me guess which specific year, but it was sometime in that stretch, I think.
I know we all loved a big road win with a big comeback against a hated rival.
Torvik didn't love that performance, though. "Only" a 91% game score. That score is the second-worse game score of the year so far after earning only a "90%" against UMKC on November 11.
Still, we took Iowa's best shot right in the mouth in the first half, shrugged it off, and ground out a solid win in the second half. Very good Iowa State teams have folded from the Iowa sucker punch in the past. Kept it close enough and then locked it down in the last five minutes to squeeze the life out of them.
Not a great Gilbert game. Came back down to Earth after looking like a NPOTY candidate on Maui and against Marquette. An inefficient nine points and six TOs, but he did nab two steals.
I would like to say Tamin is officially back. He looked himself again in the second half.
Curtis Jones is a ******* baller. I've never seen a quieter 23 in a rivalry game. Just uncorking and drilling NBA+ long threes all night with a smile on his face that I'm sure pissed off every Herk in the building.
The computers like Jefferson even more. An efficient 19 (including 10/12 from the line) with seven assists (!!!) as a power forward and zero turnovers. His big-to-big passing was simply beautiful.
Not a great Heise offensive night. Big shots late offset by a few early missed shots, a turnover, and relatively low output for his number of minutes. But I think we all know the guy is "getting it." We need to start appreciating how he went from a featured scorer and a starter at UNI to come to Ames to take a bench role as a defensive stopper. Not a lot of guys are going to volunteer for that duty and do it with such aplomb.
Not a great MM night. That's okay. He made Colorado his *****. He's still streaky, but I'm sure he's going to have plenty of big nights against big-time opponents in the Big 12 for the team yet.
D-Jack and Chatfield were okay. Neither blew anybody away. TJ smartly seemed to realize Iowa didn't have an answer for putting four guards out there with Jefferson either working one-on-one in the paint or passing out a double team to a shooter. Nice to have enough guards to go "small" and match or exceed a team on speed, which was something that was never an option with the roster last year.
Great win. Nice to see everything gelling.
Torvik didn't love that performance, though. "Only" a 91% game score. That score is the second-worse game score of the year so far after earning only a "90%" against UMKC on November 11.
Still, we took Iowa's best shot right in the mouth in the first half, shrugged it off, and ground out a solid win in the second half. Very good Iowa State teams have folded from the Iowa sucker punch in the past. Kept it close enough and then locked it down in the last five minutes to squeeze the life out of them.
Not a great Gilbert game. Came back down to Earth after looking like a NPOTY candidate on Maui and against Marquette. An inefficient nine points and six TOs, but he did nab two steals.
I would like to say Tamin is officially back. He looked himself again in the second half.
Curtis Jones is a ******* baller. I've never seen a quieter 23 in a rivalry game. Just uncorking and drilling NBA+ long threes all night with a smile on his face that I'm sure pissed off every Herk in the building.
The computers like Jefferson even more. An efficient 19 (including 10/12 from the line) with seven assists (!!!) as a power forward and zero turnovers. His big-to-big passing was simply beautiful.
Not a great Heise offensive night. Big shots late offset by a few early missed shots, a turnover, and relatively low output for his number of minutes. But I think we all know the guy is "getting it." We need to start appreciating how he went from a featured scorer and a starter at UNI to come to Ames to take a bench role as a defensive stopper. Not a lot of guys are going to volunteer for that duty and do it with such aplomb.
Not a great MM night. That's okay. He made Colorado his *****. He's still streaky, but I'm sure he's going to have plenty of big nights against big-time opponents in the Big 12 for the team yet.
D-Jack and Chatfield were okay. Neither blew anybody away. TJ smartly seemed to realize Iowa didn't have an answer for putting four guards out there with Jefferson either working one-on-one in the paint or passing out a double team to a shooter. Nice to have enough guards to go "small" and match or exceed a team on speed, which was something that was never an option with the roster last year.
Great win. Nice to see everything gelling.
Last edited:
Part of what I hate about computers. Doesn’t take into account the emotion of an instate rivalry game, where Iowa has so many Iowa guys, on their home court. They bust their nut for this game, but the computers will never show it. This is a big win, regardless what torvik or kenpom have to say about it.
I don't think you should only read the games or the seasons through the computers.
But I think they are important for grounding our views and expectations.
No computers ever means the SEC can just win the "eye test" all day long in football.
I'm okay adjusting for the "human factors" but I wouldn't want them as the only criteria.
Oh, I totally agree there, I’m just saying individual games are hard to judge. Especially in state rivalry games. Conventional wisdom goes out the window.
I keep going back to something that someone said in the game thread this afternoon - this team is different.
And that's absolutely right.
haslametrics liked the game better than Torvik - having us slightly beating expectations, especially on offense. it puts this game middle of the pack (5th out of 9) on the season.
The last 5 minutes was amazing. Iowa went 0-7 from the field with a turnover between Tamin's three that tied it at 72 with 5 minutes left and Harding's two layups once the game was over. Their only 4 points were at the line.
How so?
Another factor a box score/Torvik doesn't tell you directly but I think mattered:
The Cyclones are in great shape. They didn't looked gassed at the end.
Iowa was sucking wind in comparison. They also lacked their "classic" "depth." They came out firing but frankly looked tired by the end. Clanking all those shots late is indicative of that issue.
Meanwhile we've got six guys good enough to start for the #3 team in the country... maybe even seven if you think Heise is moving up in the pecking order... and Chatfield is fine for 10-15 minutes off the bench to go out there and bang with some of the other big men and foul 'em a few times for good measure.
Even though it was a loss that Auburn game may have been the best conditioning, physically, and mentally for this group so far.
They're different from all of the other really good teams we've had - mainly in that they expect to be here, they expect to win and all of the old bugaboos don't affect them
They are taking the football approach and playing a bunch of average to below average teams. There are good teams in the SEC, but they are as a whole just propping the league up. Just like in football. The media is general is too stupid to realize this.
