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SoapyCy

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Because you can buy 3X inverse etfs. :) But word of warning, Italy’s curve has started to turn right. I’m not at a number any longer for my buy signal. Once it’s proven that Italy flattened its curve and we can time out when our curve will turn right based in experts analysis of our measures vs their measures, there’s going to be a rally week and that’s my buy signal. Then I’m going to sell again.

Italy just posted their largest single day of cases yesterday. Where are you seeing it's flattening?
 

Gunnerclone

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Italy just posted their largest single day of cases yesterday. Where are you seeing it's flattening?

That may be but the total cases doesn’t matter, what matters is that the daily new cases are truncating. It doesn’t matter how high up on the y axis we are...all that matters is the curve starts to flatten. Then you can start to see a little bit of light and the backside of the mountain.
 

Cyched

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Yep look at that daily graph. 2547 3 days ago, 3497 2 days ago, 3590 yesterday, estimates for today are coming in at around 3500ish as well.

So the increase has been the same the last few days.

What we need is that daily number to start dropping
 
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Gunnerclone

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So the increase has been the same the last few days.

What we need is that daily number to start dropping

But the curve is flattening. If it stays stable for a couple more days then markets are going to get some clarity in terms of the timing of this in America. Then I predict a week long rally. Then a continued drop as we look forward to settling in to a nice worldwide recession.
 

Doc

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But the curve is flattening. If it stays stable for a couple more days then markets are going to get some clarity in terms of the timing of this in America. Then I predict a week long rally. Then a continued drop as we look forward to settling in to a nice worldwide recession.

the curve won’t technically start to flatten until the number of cases starts going down so maybe it did today. It’s called an inception point or something.
 

Gunnerclone

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the curve won’t technically start to flatten until the number of cases starts going down so maybe it did today. It’s called an inception point or something.

I like to refer to it as turning right. This is the stock thread, I’m trying to say what is and what isn’t in regards to the science of it. Just if we can get a few days in a row of fairly close number of daily cases then markets could react positively. The curve doesn’t have to meet the scientific definition of “flattening”.
 

SoapyCy

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I like to refer to it as turning right. This is the stock thread, I’m trying to say what is and what isn’t in regards to the science of it. Just if we can get a few days in a row of fairly close number of daily cases then markets could react positively. The curve doesn’t have to meet the scientific definition of “flattening”.

Check out the Iran graph. They were hit hard and are "turning right". A few weeks and we should be okay.
 
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Doc

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Their daily outcomes graph is amazing. Complete inversion of deaths to recoveries. Tonight is the first night I’m feeling more optimistic about the timeframe for all of this.

Honestly that was my thought tonight. I’m more positive about things than I was last Wednesday.
 
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Cyclonepride

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That death rate is not good. About 9%.

1. It's almost certain that the total number of cases are far larger than have been identified, due to the mild symptoms for most.
2. Italy has one of the oldest populations, so they'll probably skew higher than other countries in death rate.
 

BCClone

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Not exactly sure.
Honestly that was my thought tonight. I’m more positive about things than I was last Wednesday.


Markets buy the rumor and sell the fact. They will buy/sell the situation and when the information comes out that a plan is in place they generally start to calm down. If the plan works, then it is business as usual. The market could bounce either way over the next couple days.
 
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Cyclonepride

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Markets buy the rumor and sell the fact. They will buy/sell the situation and when the information comes out that a plan is in place they generally start to calm down. If the plan works, then it is business as usual. The market could bounce either way over the next couple days.

I look for it to bounce up and down for the next week or two, and then stabilize and start to climb (slowly). The market was way overvalued, IMO, and now we're back to about where I thought it should be.
 

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