2018 Stock Prediction

[BigLame]

Thank you, thank you, thank you, thank you

%-wise, a lot of worse days. Been waiting for this, definitely moving cash in. Good opportunity, maybe even better if it goes down little more.

 

[BigLame]

Agree with your advice, just here to add some good news. The 10% drop today only lost a few week's worth of gains AND it's still at near an all-time high.

I have 2 retirement accounts; a Roth IRA that I manage and a 401k that my work manages. My Roth IRA is a mix between two target-retirement date funds and the 401k is the same two funds. It's boring but it seems to be working.

10? Market was -4 & -2+ on 2/02.

 

[Mtowncyclone13]

10? Market was -4 & -2+ on 2/02.

for WFC

 

[TXCyclones]

Thank you, thank you, thank you, thank you

%-wise, a lot of worse days. Been waiting for this, definitely moving cash in. Good opportunity, maybe even better if it goes down little more.

Still seems to be going down in after-hours trading.

 

[ArgentCy]

Here is a test of the Leveraged ETF's. This one tries to track volatility and has problems, obviously.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-05/it-traders-panic-xiv-disintegrates-after-close

Which is a problem because as we explained last summer, the threshold for an XIV termination event is a -80% drop. What does this mean? Well, in previewing today's events last July, Fasanara Capital explained precisely what is going on last July:

Also, Apparently the popular managers like Wealthfront and Betterment crashed. I wonder if most of their customers wanted to sell or buy?

 

[CycloneDaddy]

I think any day is a bad day to have 40% of your IRA in one stock. Especially a company like WFC that has shown its true colors many times over the past 1-2 years. But yah today is a bad day.

Normally I try to keep WFC at around 20% of my balance but obviously lost track of it over the last year or so. I will be moving things around over the next few months to get back into balance. Im not overly concerned about it but knew it was going to be ugly today once I heard the news late friday night.

 

[Cyched]

lost a year of kid's college tuition in the last week.

Fear not. McDonalds is always hiring.

 

[Gunnerclone]

Looks like Bloodbath Part 2 tomorrow. Go SPXS.

 

[cyson]

I don't know if this counts as stocks or not but I bought 1/2 of a bitcoin right during the 1st week of January. I had a bunch of old savings bonds and my grandma gave me some Christmas money and some of my own. Anyway holy cow but it's not going well. Should I sell now or wait for it to go up?

I bought it at just over $16,500 and the next day it shot up like a thousand bucks or something and it's been down since then. Right now it's just over $11,000 and the money I put in was like all I had except for my work retirement stuff. My uncle told me that bitcoin is going to $1,000,000 so maybe I should hold. But yeah, safe to say it's NOT going the way I planned lol.

Ouch

 

[Chipper]

I don't know if this counts as stocks or not but I bought 1/2 of a bitcoin right during the 1st week of January. I had a bunch of old savings bonds and my grandma gave me some Christmas money and some of my own. Anyway holy cow but it's not going well. Should I sell now or wait for it to go up?

I bought it at just over $16,500 and the next day it shot up like a thousand bucks or something and it's been down since then. Right now it's just over $11,000 and the money I put in was like all I had except for my work retirement stuff. My uncle told me that bitcoin is going to $1,000,000 so maybe I should hold. But yeah, safe to say it's NOT going the way I planned lol.

Mods can we get an IP address to do a possible welfare check?

 

[dmclone]

I just looked at my 401k and it's down 0.12% YTD. Only change I made today was putting 5% of my 401k in company stock. At one point I had 10%, then went to 0% when I thought it got expensive, and now that it's down I'll gradually get back in. I've always had a self imposed rule to never have more than 10% but I've heard of some people in the company going all in when the stock tanked n 2008 and made a mint. Although this story is probably complete BS.

 

[Mtowncyclone13]

Fear not. McDonalds is always hiring.

we're a BK family

 

[cyfan92]

The first meaningful wage growth data and fears of inflation have quants and algo trading in a frenzy. Definitely lots of opportunity in a market with the vix nearing 50 (mostly hedge funds/fast money shops). Unfortunately, over the short term. A volatile market is bad for those in long positions (retirement accounts)

 

[Mtowncyclone13]

The first meaningful wage growth data and fears of inflation have quants and algo trading in a frenzy. Definitely lots of opportunity in a market with the vix nearing 50 (mostly hedge funds/fast money shops). Unfortunately, over the short term. A volatile market is bad for those in long positions (retirement accounts)

I'm not planning to access these accounts for 25+ years. I'm not too worried about it. My retired parents, who are forced, by law, to take out 4% every year, are affected by it.

 

[cyfan92]

I'm not planning to access these accounts for 25+ years. I'm not too worried about it. My retired parents, who are forced, by law, to take out 4% every year, are affected by it.

You're correct, I should say long positions at or near retirement are most affected.

 

[KnappShack]

Normally I try to keep WFC at around 20% of my balance but obviously lost track of it over the last year or so. I will be moving things around over the next few months to get back into balance. Im not overly concerned about it but knew it was going to be ugly today once I heard the news late friday night.

Back in the day I had a lot of company stock in my 401k. The thing was on fire, we were growing like crazy, and money was falling out of trees.

Washington Mutual was the name. After 2008 it wasn't worth a lot.

 

[Gunnerclone]

Back in the day I had a lot of company stock in my 401k. The thing was on fire, we were growing like crazy, and money was falling out of trees.

Washington Mutual was the name. After 2008 it wasn't worth a lot.

Didn’t PFG buy that and then basically absorb it at one time?

 

[BigLame]

Too many youngsters on here. Market was not volatile in 2017. This year does not appear to be the case. Missed being an investor in 1987 but have every year since. Last few days were nothing. Time to see if this is nearing a correction but in no ways is it a dead cat bouncing (least hope not).

Economy does not equal the stock market. Recessions & the like are measured by growth (or rather lack thereof) & we are not near contraction there. Inflation & interest rates are different, but 10 year treasury was 3.80 in 2010 so we have 100 bp before that. 2 year is over 2 so the spread there is very low historically. Curve has flattened & that’s been indicator or self fulfilling prophecy of a recession & I think that is a focal point as the rise in short term rates has not been matched further out the curve. Inflation would force the longer terms up so I think that’s where we are at. New to the game though is all the algorithm-based trading & that’s a concern as it’s kind of new & an unknown. Like learning & experiencing triple and quadruple witching back in the day.

 

[Cyclonepride]

Too many youngsters on here. Market was not volatile in 2017. This year does not appear to be the case. Missed being an investor in 1987 but have every year since. Last few days were nothing. Time to see if this is nearing a correction but in no ways is it a dead cat bouncing (least hope not).

Economy does not equal the stock market. Recessions & the like are measured by growth (or rather lack thereof) & we are not near contraction there. Inflation & interest rates are different, but 10 year treasury was 3.80 in 2010 so we have 100 bp before that. 2 year is over 2 so the spread there is very low historically. Curve has flattened & that’s been indicator or self fulfilling prophecy of a recession & I think that is a focal point as the rise in short term rates has not been matched further out the curve. Inflation would force the longer terms up so I think that’s where we are at. New to the game though is all the algorithm-based trading & that’s a concern as it’s kind of new & an unknown. Like learning & experiencing triple and quadruple witching back in the day.

The Fed still has a balance sheet of around $4.5 trillion, which lends to the volatility that people feel even if they don't see it.

 

[SayMyName]

My motto: "When the VIX is high - buy, baby, buy!"

There are some crazy stats out there about how the longer-term market responds after volatility crosses the ~40 threshold.