Ya I was gonna say that in my last post but got called into a meeting.
2018 Stock Prediction
- Thread starter dmclone
- Start date
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LincolnWay187
Guest
Do you believe in this companies business model? I feel like video game sales are going to keep moving more and more online and directly through Xbox and Sony for consoles. Pc will be through steam. They are essentially blockbuster in a Netflix world
Nope, physical games will always be around. I will never buy many games online because you get less. A.) i have crappy internet with data limits to where I would get like 2 games in a month. B.) you can't resell, loan, or trade the games etc. C.) there is some nostalgia with the physical cartridge.
There certainly will be a good segment that goes digital but it won't be the whole segment. Plus gaming is really still gaining in popularity and they should at least be able to hold a decent market share. That also means that the collectibles they've been selling should increase.
They pay over 12% dividend yield and its still fairly well covered (~50% of FCF) with terrible management decisions.
After all even the Blockbusters of the world aren't done. Still a few around and many towns have a Family Video around here.
There certainly will be a good segment that goes digital but it won't be the whole segment. Plus gaming is really still gaining in popularity and they should at least be able to hold a decent market share. That also means that the collectibles they've been selling should increase.
They pay over 12% dividend yield and its still fairly well covered (~50% of FCF) with terrible management decisions.
After all even the Blockbusters of the world aren't done. Still a few around and many towns have a Family Video around here.
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LincolnWay187
Guest
I hope you don't think I'm an a-hole for diaagreeing. But don't you think internet services will keep getting faster? As for the dividend.. I owned stock in sdrl an offshore drilling company for the dividend and the stock tanked as oil began to dive and offshore became expensive relative to fracking. I thinj
think gamestop can stay in business if they close a bunch of retail stores(there's way too many) . I'm bullish on gaming in general just not GameStop. Hell, these free to play games are even making a run.
Well, so far the shorts running that narrative are winning so whose to say for sure. Most of the time the companies in these sectors get in trouble in a decline because of DEBT. If they are paying a large dividend but it takes 80%+ of FCF (look for payout ratio-which just went crazy for GME this last quarter because of some write downs). But it is always the companies with large debts that go out of business and GME had really low levels of debt and then bought the AT&T stores adding $500 million in debt which was a bad deal but still not bad levels of debt.
Right now GME lists $864 mil cash and $818 mil debt.
And don't be afraid to argue. The best investment clubs and decisions are made after real arguments and people just don't agree with each other. Plus I'm a Libertarian and we're kinda obsessed with arguing.
Right now GME lists $864 mil cash and $818 mil debt.
And don't be afraid to argue. The best investment clubs and decisions are made after real arguments and people just don't agree with each other. Plus I'm a Libertarian and we're kinda obsessed with arguing.
This is a good website (from the people that made the ETF I recommended) that tries to rate a company on whether or not they are likely to raise or lower a dividend. LEAD invests in the companies that their algos think are most likely to raise the dividends. It takes into account Expected dividend growth, FCF, EPS, dividend actions, buybacks, "bloomberg fundamentals", and Altman z-scores.
http://www.realitysharesadvisors.com/divcon/
Scroll down and you can enter most dividend paying companies and see the scores 5-best to 1-worst.
http://www.realitysharesadvisors.com/divcon/
Scroll down and you can enter most dividend paying companies and see the scores 5-best to 1-worst.
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LincolnWay187
Guest
Once you start going digital with your purchases..you won't go back. No damaged discs/lost games/lost music etc. You can delete things and re-download to save up hard drive space. Less clutter. No installing and then having to update. Games at some point might even be completely streamable from a server rather than owning the disc or computing hardware. Plus, there is no guarantee that the next generation of video game consoles will allow used games resale. I believe that was a possible issue on xbox before Microsoft let up on that policy. That would essentially gut gamestop who makes a big portion of their sales in used games. Again, I think the company can continue to exist but in a much different scale and form. I would be bullish on Take Two Interactive who creates the grand theft auto games(they just missed earnings today so should be down tomorrow). Those GTA games print money and you know they will be announcing a new one in the next year or two after about 5 years of not releasing one.
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Perhaps its just because I like the old school games. I'm not into the latest and greatest first person shooter (cough fortnight cough). So many quality games that have been forgotten with some new junk dominating with a few more polygons.
True and this was never going to be a long-term holding. A good business doesn't have to grow crazy numbers. At current levels I could potentially collect my money back in dividends in <9 years.
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LincolnWay187
Guest
Maybe consider KBWY as an alternative? Its a REIT with around an 8 percent dividend. It could keep going down as interest rates change though..
I bought facebook at 38 and sold at 33. Ended up losing money because I was certain something new would pop up. Id have 10k in facebook stock now... damn
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Getting back in ... when I feel comfortable again. Picked 10 stocks in the 80's without knowing much in the financial area. Dad questioned all 10. 5 years later he was all in on my thinking as I had 5 of the top 10 growth stocks in the entire market. The 2001 plunge took a big chunk out, but selling against my losses helped. One thing I never expected was the government devaluing gold and dramatically reducing the IPO requirements. Those guys in DC are not doing what's in the best interest for the country when it comes to the market. That said, being a 'product' analyst is more complex these days as I'm trying to find the time to stay up to date on a heck of allot more than I did when I first got out of college. I watch the logic of some on here and learn allot. I watch the logic of others and just cringe. All-in-all, however, there are some excellent points. Thanks!
I remember back when it went public about $20 and went under oh maybe $15 and ZeroHedge kept calling it Face Plant. Turns out spying on every detail of your "customers" was more profitable than ZH assumed.
I think this probably coincides with Google Ads value going down so much causing problems for sites like CF. Random ads are not nearly as interesting to marketers when they started getting so much more info and targeting from FB.
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