2018 Conference Wrestling Allocations

[Judoka]

Allocations are out. Haven't gone through yet to figure out who got each one other than Jerret Degen earned one of the five at 149.

125: 7
133: 5
141: 3
149: 5
157: 3
165: 6
174: 5
184: 4
197: 4
HWT: 3

https://www.ncaa.com/news/wrestling...lifier-allocations-2018-championships-coaches

 

[stuclone]

125- Just gotta battle for one more tournament. Appreciate what Sinjin has done for us this year.
133- Good Simmons has a good chance to steal a spot. Bad Simmons, probably not
141- Gonna need a hell of a tournament from Parker. Hopefully his knee is better in a week
149- Degen should qualify
157- Was competitive with Zilverberg (really should've won). Will need to redeem a loss to Logan Ryan and has an outside shot at nationals
165- Minimal to no chance
174- Gonna have to catch some people, but slim chance
184- I actually like Dane's odds here. He's been close all year, just needs to get over the hump but 4 spots available is big.
197- Gonna need to upset Rotert and Smith again or avenge the two losses to Holschlag. Possible, but will be tough
HWT- Decent chance at qualifying

Prediction: 133, 149, 184, HWT qualify (really holding out hope on Sammy, but will be tough to beat Rotert and Smith again)

 

[theshadow]

Spots earned for the league:
Oklahoma State - 9
SDSU, UNI - 6
NDSU - 5
UNC, UVU, Wyoming - 4
Oklahoma - 3
Fresno - 2
ISU, WVU - 1
Air Force - 0

 

[cyclonenation5]

Would be a shame for Parker not to get in. Kid has wrestled well all year, just got injured at the wrong time. Hope he's close to 100% by the Big 12 tournament, he'll need to be if he wants to qualify.

 

[Judoka]

Parker and Colbray would have decent at large resumes if it came to that, but they'd need to finish one spot short of placing at Big XIIs and hope there weren't many upsets elsewhere.

I think Jake Smith finished one match short of 17 D-1 matches at 197. Him not getting a spot makes Colbray's path a lot harder.

 

[Judoka]

Prediction: 133, 149, 184, HWT qualify (really holding out hope on Sammy, but will be tough to beat Rotert and Smith again)

I agree with you about 184 being a really good shot. Several fringe guys ended up on the right side of earning a qualification there so Dane doesn't need to do anything crazy to get in. He just has to wrestle a good tournament and beat some slightly above average wrestlers.

 

[VirginSturgeon]

Allocations turned decent for the team to maximize their chances at qualifying 5 or so wrestlers. Lets hope the team comes back from the 2 week in between competition refreshed for the home stretch.

 

[NYWRESTLER94]

If Parker wrestles the way he did before the injury I think he gets in, should be able to beat Alber maybe even make the finals. I’m going off that small sample size though.

 

[cywr89]

Parker and Colbray would have decent at large resumes if it came to that, but they'd need to finish one spot short of placing at Big XIIs and hope there weren't many upsets elsewhere.

I think Jake Smith finished one match short of 17 D-1 matches at 197. Him not getting a spot makes Colbray's path a lot harder.

According to at-large criteria, placement at conference is just one thing they look at and it doesn’t say anything about being next in line. Obviously, it will be tougher because the guy above may have head-to-head criteria. Parker and Colbray are in good spots to get at-large if they place in the top 5. Also, I like Jennings chance at 165 if he is the guy as top 6 go.

 

[Judoka]

According to at-large criteria, placement at conference is just one thing they look at and it doesn’t say anything about being next in line. Obviously, it will be tougher because the guy above may have head-to-head criteria. Parker and Colbray are in good spots to get at-large if they place in the top 5. Also, I like Jennings chance at 165 if he is the guy as top 6 go.

You have to hit 2 of the at large criteria. Parker has only hit 1 (a win over an automatic qualifier that successfully qualifies for NCAAs, or at least he will very likely have that). With his very small sample size at 141 and lack of an RPI I think if he didn't take 4th there's no assurance he'd be ranked (He'll have hit five matches and be eligible for that). Any loss to somebody not in that top three would also hurt his resume.

In Colbray's case, he'll have the win over an autqualifier who cashes in their bid and he does have an RPI, so he should be eligible regardless. But there are going to be multiple guys at 197 from the Big XII that will be competitive for at large spots. Head to head performance against other guys who are in the running is a big part of at large selection. If he loses to any of them at Big XIIs that'll make him much less competitive. He wouldn't be totally out of it, especially if he ends up just 2 short of a spot or something, but it would severely hurt his chances.

I'm with you on Jennings though. I can't see St. John making the top six. Jennings is a question mark, he might be able to make it, he might not. Given the limited data set of him at 165 there's really no way to know. But there's hope - all three of the the guys he's wrestled that will be at Big XIIs earned allocations and he's 1-2 against them. St. John has also went 1-2 against three guys that will be at Big XIIs, but his 1-2 were against three guys who did not earn allocations.

 

[Judoka]

On March 7, wrestlers in each weight class will receive an updated Win %, RPI and coaches’ ranking that includes all
competition through the qualifying events. Wrestlers who meet or exceed any two of the following criteria will be labeled
“Bronze Standard”:

• .700 Win %
• Top 33 RPI
• Top 33 CR
• .700 winning percentage against all competition
• One win against a wrestler receiving automatic qualification via an earned position (preallocated)
• Qualifying event placement one below automatic qualification

Only Bronze Standard wrestlers will be eligible for selection as at-large qualifiers. A wrestler must have participated
in his respective conference or regional qualifying tournament in order to be considered for at-large selection to the
championships. The NCAA Wrestling Committee will use the following weighted criteria, in priority order, to evaluate the
Bronze Standard wrestlers:

• Head-to-head competition — 25 percent
• Quality wins — 20 percent
• Coaches ranking — 15 percent
• Results against common opponents — 10 percent
• RPI — 10 percent
• Qualifying event placement — 10 percent
• Win percentage — 10 percent

If Parker doesn't get at least 4th that means he took two losses at Big XIIs. He's 2-1 right now so with 3 losses that would mean he'd need 5 wins to hit 0.700. And there aren't that many matches in a 12 man bracket. So the .700 win percentage is out. He can't get an RPI. So if he doesn't take 4th then his only path to being eligible for an at large spot is for Heil to qualify (likely) and for him to be ranked (not a sure thing at all if he finishes 5th or lower, at that point his win over Heil looks like a fluke).

Colbray has wins over Rotert and Seally and there's almost no situation where neither of them earns a spot without Colbray getting in the top four, so he almost for sure has that one hit. Getting to a 0.700 record is out of the question, he is 13-11 overall right now. He wasn't in the coaches panel and if he finishes out of the top 5 I can't see how he'd sneak in. He was 33rd in the RPI pre-conference so that one is borderline - he could easily fall out of the RPI if he doesn't take at least 5th. If he takes 6th and is out of the RPI then he isn't eligible for an at large. If he takes 6th and doesn't fall out of the RPI then he's eligible. But the Big XII has 7 ranked wrestlers (plus Colbray) and only four allocations. So whoever would take 5th ahead of him (probably Smith or Sealy) would also be competitive for an at large spot and would have a better resume than him. That wouldn't totally knock him out of the running - there are 5 at large spots for the taking at 197 so if things went to chalk everywhere else and Colbray took 6th in a close loss to Smith or Sealy then he'd still have a better than zero shot since he'd still have finished above Orndorff and McLaughin and those would be two other guys hoping for an at large. But it wouldn't be a sure thing.

TL;DR - At 4th it isn't a sure thing for Parker, 5th for Colbray would give him a really good chance. Parker has almost zero chance at an at large if he doesn't take 4th. Colbray has a small, but not trivial, shot at an at large if he takes 6th, but almost no chance if he finishes lower than that.

 

[BCClone]

Who won the wrestle off St. John or Jennings.

 

[ca4cy]

Who won the wrestle off St. John or Jennings.

Was there another one?

 

[buf87]

Who owns the Allocations by Seton Hall Pirate

https://wrestlingbypirate.wordpress.com/2018/02/22/ncaa-allocations-and-who-owns-them/

 

[BCClone]

Was there another one?

Don't know. People were talking about Jennings wrestling, so I assumed there had to be another.

 

[ca4cy]

Don't know. People were talking about Jennings wrestling, so I assumed there had to be another.

I assume that's wishful thinking but am holding out hope. The fact that it's been St. John in every dual since the wrestle leads me to believe it's his spot.

 

[cywr89]

Here are how the at-large selection works: head-to-head competition; quality wins; coaches’ ranking; results against common opponents; RPI; qualifying event placement; and winning percentage.

The best thing for Parker is Happel wins the wrestle off over in IC because Turk would have the head-to-head criteria over him, if it came down to only 1 of those 2 qualifying. Otherwise, his quality win will carry a lot of weight.

 

[buf87]

Here are how the at-large selection works: head-to-head competition; quality wins; coaches’ ranking; results against common opponents; RPI; qualifying event placement; and winning percentage.

The best thing for Parker is Happel wins the wrestle off over in IC because Turk would have the head-to-head criteria over him, if it came down to only 1 of those 2 qualifying. Otherwise, his quality win will carry a lot of weight.

Was told that Turk won the wrestleoff 6 or 7 to 1

 

[Judoka]

Pac-12s run today. They've only got one allocation at 141 so hope for chalk there. Four out of their 5 guys qualified at 197 so there really just hope Belshay from Arizona State goes 0-2. If he wins his first match he's guaranteed at least 4th place.

 

[buf87]

I wonder if they allow the Pac 12 to continue as a qualifier with only 5 teams. Not a lot different than the old Big 12 with 4. Should have them combine with So Conf, that is extremely weak also.

Summary :
1) Arizona St. (96 pts) easily wins the Team Title. Oregon St. a distant 2nd (70 pts)
2) 19 of 22 AQ's take care of business & secure their NCAA bids.

Steals:

- 133 : Pengilly (Stanford) steals from AQ Nickell (CSB)

- 141 : C. Schilling (Cal Poly) steals from AQ Rohlfing (CSB)

- 157 : Willits (Oregon St,) steals from AQ Hammond (CSB)