Coronavirus Coronavirus: In-Iowa General Discussion (Not Limited)

[Statefan10]

They aren't doing that though. It allows for it, but reading that article about the Rochester skate park suggests that they're really using law enforcement to curb that.

Yeah I mean for kids I doubt they're going to be writing tons of tickets to them.. That makes total sense.

 

[cowgirl836]

Lucky for him he got tested because a pregnant friend and her husband who are both showing strong symptoms were turned away from tests. Pretty ridiculous.

multiple stories in my area as well. I've only seen one story about an actual faker. People who believe anyone who showed symptoms could get a test a few weeks ago are lying. I know up here you had to have travel history for quite a while.

 

[madguy30]

Once again, you don't know what flattening the curve means. It sounds like you're talking about the peak.

Is this what you mean by flat curve by projections? Read the updated part. Looks like it's just on the cusp in an ideal situation.

https://kwwl.com/2020/03/30/state-b...ns-when-will-iowa-peak-how-does-iowa-compare/

 

[Mr Janny]

We must have an uptick in something else because Iowa only has 61-62 Covid cases hospitalized and I doubt all are ICU, usually 1/4 to 1/3 are. We had 280 vents a couple days ago according to the Governors report.

They aren't counting the people who are being treated but haven't yet tested positive. For example, an organization that I am familiar with is reporting a small number of confirmed Covid cases, but has others being treated that are very likely COVID, but haven't had test results returned yet because they didn't meet requirements. The test takes longer if you don't meet the criteria. Goes to a different lab. That lab's turnaround has been getting shorter, but it's still significantly longer than the state lab where tests are sent if you meet the criteria.
So, we likely have more cases in hospitals being treated, but just no positive test yet

 

[Al_4_State]

So I don't know when I last looked at IA on here (a few days, less than a week) but I remember them being maybe a little short on ICU beds but ok on regular and ventilators. They're short on all three now. Just barely on beds but I could swear the "need" was like 2500-2800 before. This isn't a perfect model because your schools are effectively closed but it does look worse than the last time I saw it. Did I read something about IA having 280 vents?

ETA; it's WI that has the 2500 bed need. Our numbers for "need" are lower than IA so it'll be interesting to see how this plays out because I can't see IA having more that much higher of a need especially with WI outpacing in cases (and population!) right now.

Don't forget that particular website is using technically accurate but factually inaccurate data for it's modeling.

It heavily weighs the fact that the Governor didn't formally close any schools towards Iowa's overall numbers (and need). The reality is that every school in the state is closed, despite no order. But the model assumes that it's business as usual with hundreds of thousands of people attending or working at schools every day.

Iowa should be lower than the projections that site makes, because that site isn't using Iowa's reality in it's matrix.

 

[cowgirl836]

We must have an uptick in something else because Iowa only has 61-62 Covid cases hospitalized and I doubt all are ICU, usually 1/4 to 1/3 are. We had 280 vents a couple days ago according to the Governors report.

Yes, the last time I looked the numbers were a lot different.

yeah I don't know what's changed the projection so much but it stuck out to me, especially compared to WI.

 

[Ms3r4ISU]

Is this what you mean by flat curve by projections? Read the updated part. Looks like it's just on the cusp in an ideal situation.

https://kwwl.com/2020/03/30/state-b...ns-when-will-iowa-peak-how-does-iowa-compare/

Look at the bottom of that page -- it's not original reporting or chart making. It's all from here https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections (and choose Iowa) And yes, I noticed that substantial (my word, not a math or statistical term) change in projected peak tracked data since yesterday. About two weeks later as of today. And now there's a projected bed shortage AND ICU bed shortage on that date.

 

[CysRage]

We had 280 vents a couple days ago according to the Governors report.

That's what I thought too but last night on KCRG they reported that about 1,000 ventilators are available in the state. That is great news if true.

 

[Acylum]

Did the hospital beds open up because of the deaths though? I'm honestly wondering.

No. I wondered the same thing but I compared the currently hospitalized numbers to the discharged and recovering numbers. ( 61 to 63 and 33 to 36) Deaths are listed separately.

 

[Trice]

Deleted a previous post and re-posting here because I meant to include the entire thread. I wonder whether there are other unreported deaths.

 

[Cy$]

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

I could be wrong, but I doubt a CF poster is working for the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.

you never know.

 

[Acylum]

They aren't counting the people who are being treated but haven't yet tested positive. For example, an organization that I am familiar with is reporting a small number of confirmed Covid cases, but has others being treated that are very likely COVID, but haven't had test results returned yet because they didn't meet requirements. The test takes longer if you don't meet the criteria. Goes to a different lab. That lab's turnaround has been getting shorter, but it's still significantly longer than the state lab where tests are sent if you meet the criteria.
So, we likely have more cases in hospitals being treated, but just no positive test yet

Yeah it’s weird. My BIL’s results took 5 days. My youngest daughter said at her hospital they’re getting results in <48 hours. My BIL is in Washington county where it could be a backlog occurring.

 

[Cyientist]

yeah I don't know what's changed the projection so much but it stuck out to me, especially compared to WI.

Not sure which day you checked, but after we only reported 30some cases on Sunday (decrease from the previous few days), it really dropped its projection for IA. Prior to that I believe it had projected total deaths in the 700s with a peak in late April. Then after the Sunday results, it shifted to under 200 deaths with an April 17th peak. Then Monday we had 88 cases and more deaths and it jumped into the 1,000s with late April peak along with the shortages of beds/ICUs.

 

[Clonehomer]

Look at the bottom of that page -- it's not original reporting or chart making. It's all from here https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections (and choose Iowa) And yes, I noticed that substantial (my word, not a math or statistical term) change in projected peak tracked data since yesterday. About two weeks later as of today. And now there's a projected bed shortage AND ICU bed shortage on that date.

Why do they show the schools not being closed? Are my kids supposed to be there right now?

 

[dmclone]

Actually, yes Iowa is a perfect example. According to those stats, at it's worse Iowa will be 11 beds short. However, ICU beds are a concern. 4 days ago, the same site showed ICU beds not being short in Iowa.

Go take a look at New York and you'll see a good example of not flattening the curve.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

 

[Rabbuk]

Actually, yes Iowa is a perfect example. According to those stats, at it's worse Iowa will be 11 beds short. However, ICU beds are a concern. 4 days ago, the same site showed ICU beds not being short in Iowa.

Go take a look at New York and you'll see a good example of not flattening the curve.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

does this assume literally every available bed is being allotted to just corona?

 

[cowgirl836]

Don't forget that particular website is using technically accurate but factually inaccurate data for it's modeling.

It heavily weighs the fact that the Governor didn't formally close any schools towards Iowa's overall numbers (and need). The reality is that every school in the state is closed, despite no order. But the model assumes that it's business as usual with hundreds of thousands of people attending or working at schools every day.

Iowa should be lower than the projections that site makes, because that site isn't using Iowa's reality in it's matrix.

right and I noted that in my post.

Not sure which day you checked, but after we only reported 30some cases on Sunday (decrease from the previous few days), it really dropped its projection for IA. Prior to that I believe it had projected total deaths in the 700s with a peak in late April. Then after the Sunday results, it shifted to under 200 deaths with an April 17th peak. Then Monday we had 88 cases and more deaths and it jumped into the 1,000s with late April peak along with the shortages of beds/ICUs.

It was probably around the last time it was brought up in here or one of the other places. It's a bad time looking at NY's numbers. That makes more sense though if you had some change over the weekend.

 

[Acylum]

does this assume literally every available bed is being allotted to just corona?

That’s a good question and I hope not. That would be a major flaw.

 

[agcy68]

kim has said cities can’t shut down. So I assume counties can’t either?

She said she couldn't lock people in their houses.

 

[BoxsterCy]

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

This projects Iowa's peak to be at the end of April.. so about a month.

Interesting projections. Shows more total deaths for Iowa than my more populated Minnesota.