CFN picks Iowa State to beat Texas

CarrollCyclone

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Link: http://collegefootballnews.com/2017/09/texas-vs-iowa-state-prediction-game-preview

Texas vs. Iowa State Fearless Prediction & Game Preview

It was one of the big positives of the last season of the Charlie Strong era. The other wins over decent teams were dogfights, but handling Iowa State 27-6 was considered a big step.

Obviously, it all didn't work out for the former regime.

But Iowa State is playing better now, battling hard in a heartbreaking loss to Iowa, but blowing away Northern Iowa and Akron helped show that this is a different team.

This isn't the Iowa State that got shoved around last year.

And now Texas has a must-win moment. It's on the road, and it's an improved Cyclone team, but it's not okay for Texas to lose to Iowa State -- ever.

Battling hard against USC was cute, and the loss to Maryland could sort of be excused, but if the Longhorns lose this and start 1-3 with the lone win coming against San Jose State, with Kansas State, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State ahead, it'll be time to panic.

One Reason Why Texas Will Win
Iowa State is generating a pass rush, but the secondary is getting burnt, allowing ten touchdown passes and getting hit for 885 yards in the three games.

Whether it's Shane Buechele -- who will supposedly be the main man if he's healthy and ready to go -- or Sam Ehlinger, the passing attack should work.

For all the faults, and all the issues the Longhorns have had, they're owning third downs. The defense is 15th in the nation at third down stops, and the offense is doing its part converting 47% of the time.

Third downs are a problem for the Cyclones. They're 115th in third down defensive stops, and they're just okay at moving the chains.

One Reason Why Iowa State Will Win
Iowa State can put up big points.

That Iowa defense that gave Penn State fits was hit for 41 points by the Cyclone offense that scored 42 against Northern Iowa and 41 against Akron, and is showing enough balance to keep up the pace once this gets rolling.

QB Jacob Park has been stellar so far. He ripped up the Iowa defense for 347 yards and four scores, and completed 75% of his throws in the other two wins doing a great job with all the solid Cyclone receiving talent.

Helping the cause is an O line that's allowed just one sack so far. Texas will try to bring the pressure, but the Iowa State line will win its share of battles.

What's Going to Happen
It was the common refrain throughout last week -- weird things happen in Iowa at night. The Hawkeyes almost pulled off the upset over Penn State, and the bizarre will keep on going.

Iowa State really and truly is good enough to win this straight up. It has the offensive balance, the defensive aggressiveness, and the veterans in place to pull it off. Throw in the Thursday night atmosphere and the charged up environment, and it's going to be a breakthrough day for the Matt Campbell era.

Prediction
Iowa State 41, Texas 38
 

knowlesjam

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Actually, while a bit fluffy, the piece does hit the key point. Can the Texas D stop the ISU O...if not, ISU wins...41-38 final score is certainly plausible. Really looking forward to being there...likely a late night!
 

1976

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Actually, while a bit fluffy, the piece does hit the key point. Can the Texas D stop the ISU O...if not, ISU wins...41-38 final score is certainly plausible. Really looking forward to being there...likely a late night!
I agree that ISU wins a shootout. Texas won't be able to stop us, but they have big receivers that scare me too.
 
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Stewo

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I would rather have everyone picking us at the underdog!

What I love about this staff is that they don't try and play the underdog card. They instill the belief in these kids that they can compete, and beat, anyone in front of them because they are equal. The underdog shtick wore out really quickly under Rhoads and the teams he had played, generally, like they knew they were outgunned.
 

CentexCyclone

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I think the writer's appraisal of Texas offense is a bit optimistic. They've lost two starting OL thus far this year and are terrible running the ball against Power 5 competition. The points about 3rd down are valid, though I'm not sure how effective Texas offense is really going to be for four quarters with a suspect run game and OL. I'd be surprised if their offense scored 38 points.
 

bosco

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I think the writer's appraisal of Texas offense is a bit optimistic. They've lost two starting OL thus far this year and are terrible running the ball against Power 5 competition. The points about 3rd down are valid, though I'm not sure how effective Texas offense is really going to be for four quarters with a suspect run game and OL. I'd be surprised if their offense scored 38 points.
Yes but our defense gave up 44 pts to that Iowa offense.
 

UraMallas

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If it's true that their secondary is a weakness I like our chances a wee bit more.
 

wclarson

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What I love about this staff is that they don't try and play the underdog card. They instill the belief in these kids that they can compete, and beat, anyone in front of them because they are equal. The underdog shtick wore out really quickly under Rhoads and the teams he had played, generally, like they knew they were outgunned.
Nailed It! It was fine for Rhoads' first year or so but after that it was annoying. I was so disappointed in his post game comments after we beat UT 24-0. You can't have the head coach of a power five program saying his team shouldn't beat a conference opponent. I understood what he was trying to say but texas was coming off a 6 win season and had a losing record coming into town. That was the final straw for me. Statements like that just indicated that the mindset of the program was not where it needed to be for a guy 7 years into his tenure.
 

tazclone

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I think the writer's appraisal of Texas offense is a bit optimistic. They've lost two starting OL thus far this year and are terrible running the ball against Power 5 competition. The points about 3rd down are valid, though I'm not sure how effective Texas offense is really going to be for four quarters with a suspect run game and OL. I'd be surprised if their offense scored 38 points.
Agree and I like our secondary improving with a week off. Most of our secondary collapses have been blown coverages by the S group. I liked what Braxton Lewis brought against Akron and KCM should help. First team we have faced that isn't excellent in the run game so our secondary won't be as apt to cheat on the run game
Yes but our defense gave up 44 pts to that Iowa offense.
Sold out to stop the run and made Stanley beat us. Kudos to Stanley...he stepped up. I don't think we will need to be as dedicated to Texas' run game. On top of that, liked what Braxton Lewis brought against Akron and having KCM back should help solidify S play. Those two should be able to help solve the blown coverage issue we have seen.
 
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BWRhasnoAC

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Iowa had 3 diving catches in the end zone. Props to them but if we played that game over I don't think they score as much as they did. That was as good as the pass can be for Iowa and they won't have another game like it.

As far as Texas goes I'm not convinced. If they can't run the ball it will get ugly.

ISU 42 Texas 24
 

jbindm

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What I love about this staff is that they don't try and play the underdog card. They instill the belief in these kids that they can compete, and beat, anyone in front of them because they are equal. The underdog shtick wore out really quickly under Rhoads and the teams he had played, generally, like they knew they were outgunned.


I agree. I was thinking about that the other day. If/when Campbell experiences a Big 12 officiating screw job, I wonder how he'll handle it postgame. I hope he never has to deal with one, but if he does then I don't think we'll get a Rhoads-style diatribe from him.
And that's good, that's part of changing the culture. I never had a problem with Rhoads standing up for his guys, but part of turning this program around is teaching the players that they should expect to win and take responsibility when they don't instead of blaming officials for a bad beat.
 

jbindm

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Iowa had 3 diving catches in the end zone. Props to them but if we played that game over I don't think they score as much as they did. That was as good as the pass can be for Iowa and they won't have another game like it.

Eh. For every diving catch in the end zone there was a missed deep ball to a wide open receiver by Stanley. It's a moot point.
 
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BWRhasnoAC

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Eh. For every diving catch in the end zone there was a missed deep ball to a wide open receiver by Stanley. It's a moot point.
Not really because two of those TD's were barely caught. So my point still remains. You won't see Iowa do that again this year.