UNI/FBS Game Forshadows the Entire Year

LarryISU

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Feb 10, 2013
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Just win....I learned a long time ago that very few [except places like this site] remember much other than whether it was a win or loss. Players take less stock on the point difference, they just enjoy the team W. If we can win a non league by 1 point, I call that a goal achieved. Maybe, a sign of much more work to be done, but a win. I know this will not be a popular view, but it's mine. "Fire Away":(

I learned long ago, and feel it has worked well, to look at things long-term, big picture. So tolfbfan is absolutely right, for now we just need to win a game. Then win another. Then another. JUST WIN! Maybe as the program progresses we can expect to win BIG, but for now, just get a win. Football has so many variables, we could beat UNI by 3 points and then beat Iowa by 17. So for that first game, it really doesn't matter the point differential, just beat them.

ESPN replayed the Penn State/Ohio State game today or yesterday I forget, but Penn State blocked a punt and it was such a freak one in a million play. The Penn State guy got blocked off to the side and was in no position to block the punt, so all he could do was lean over and stick out his hand to the side. But it just so happened that the punter kicked the ball forward directly into that little 6 inch square box of space occupied by that hand even though it was not all that close to the punter. Penn State wins the game.

So that is what I mean, there are so many random circumstances and chance events in a football game. Heck, Nebraska might turn the ball over to ISU eight times in one game.... Oh, wait, that actually happened (2009)! So as tolfbfan says, let's all just be satisfied September 2 with a W, however we come by it.
 

HandSanitizer

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The UNI/FBS game basically dictates how the year will turn out.

Over the past 18 Years-

10 Years of ISU having "decent" teams (8 bowls, 2010 (5-7), and 1999 (4-7, and two close loses)
During those years, ISU never lost to UNI and won by an average of something like 33-10.

8 Years of ISU being.......well, Bad...sometimes Terrible
During those 8 years:
4 Loses,
2 near loses (2006 28-27; 2003 17-10),
2 outliers Wins- (2015 UNI 31-7; 2008 SDSU 44-17).

To Sum it Up:
If we Beat UNI and beat them by a lot, We are do for a "Decent Year (80% bowling)
If we Lose or Barely win........Might as well Jump Ship, and buy some extra BuschLite.

UNI: Make or Break Game for ISU!



Was just talking to someone about this. You are so correct. Good post
 

LarryISU

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It's definitely revealing of the quality of our team in any given year, but never underestimate the power of momentum in college sports. I do believe that some of those teams would have likely done better in other games if they had found a way to pull that one out.

Absolutely! I know players say they put things behind them, but how do you lose at home to UNI last year and then travel to Iowa City thinking anything but "We don't stand a chance." And that is exactly how ISU played, as if they didn't even belong there on the same field.
 

tolfbfan

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Absolutely! I know players say they put things behind them, but how do you lose at home to UNI last year and then travel to Iowa City thinking anything but "We don't stand a chance." And that is exactly how ISU played, as if they didn't even belong there on the same field.

Prep for next game starts Sunday after Saturday game. Win or lose that is mentality of most, if not all, programs.
 

madguy30

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Nov 15, 2011
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So, if we lose to UNI do I get refund on my season tickets?

Hopefullly they'll refund the Cy TV broadcast again if it's the same sort of **** show as last season.

Anyone with a digital transmitter will be able to watch some random High School football that weekend, but two of 3 D1 Football schools facing off? Nope.
 
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Antihawk240

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May 17, 2012
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Hopefullly they'll refund the Cy TV broadcast again if it's the same sort of **** show as last season.

Anyone with a digital transmitter will be able to watch some random High School football that weekend, but two of 3 D1 Football schools facing off? Nope.

The next morning after last years game, I'm sipping coffee contemplating ever going through the effort of setting aside time for Cyclone Football again, and I get an email saying my CycloneTV subscription was refunded. That cheered me up. That was a very smart move on Cyclone.TV's part.

I agree 100% on the TV with you. I understand the money situation, I really do, but how 2 DI instate schools play each other and an instate resident tax payer has to pay (cable or stream) to watch them play is absolutely ridiculous. Local ABC, NBC, CBS, FOX, heck IPTV should have the rights to air those games.
 

CascadeClone

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Oct 24, 2009
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I have been a proponent of the UNI game being a barometer for a long time. Posted this last year at this time. (simpsonsdidit.gif) ;)


Aug 17, 2016
Well, since some have thrown cold water on my theory, and not entirely unfairly, let me add data of interest. Sorry it's hard to read. I include UNI and NDSt here since both are excellent FCS programs.

margin W L
2014 -20 2-10
2007 -11 3-9
2013 -8 3-9
2011 +1 6-7
2006 +1 4-8
2003 +7 2-10
2009 +17 7-6
2004 +23 7-5
2015 +24 3-9
2010 +27 5-7
2012 +34 6-7
2001 +45 7-5

When they have lost or won by a score or less (6 times, ugh), they have averaged 3.7 wins. I would say that means they are not good those years.

When they have won by 20+, they have averaged 5.6 wins. And that includes only 3 wins last year; if Toledo and KSt happen the average goes up to 6. So that means bowling or close to it. A good team.

Rather than list specific point differentials in my earlier post, implying a level of precision that isn't real, I should have said "win big", "win comfortable", and "win close or lose". Point differentials have randomness in them, so do the wins and losses when it's all said and done.

So it's a measuring stick, not a laser rangefinder. But I have found it usually is a very good predictor about what kind of team we will have.
 

bosco

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Dec 21, 2008
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So, your saying the program is in the toilet?:(
The program has a habit of going to poo for the season if they lose to UNI. Which it probably misleading. The ISU teams that lose to UNI weren't bad because of the UNI loss. They just weren't very good to begin with, the loss was just a symptom. UNI game is more of a canary in the coal mine.

As for the status of the program I'll reserve judgment after I see actual wins.
 

CyBobby

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Oct 18, 2006
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Absolutely! I know players say they put things behind them, but how do you lose at home to UNI last year and then travel to Iowa City thinking anything but "We don't stand a chance." And that is exactly how ISU played, as if they didn't even belong there on the same field.

I agree Larry and the score said the same thing.
 

tolfbfan

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The program has a habit of going to poo for the season if they lose to UNI. Which it probably misleading. The ISU teams that lose to UNI weren't bad because of the UNI loss. They just weren't very good to begin with, the loss was just a symptom. UNI game is more of a canary in the coal mine.

As for the status of the program I'll reserve judgment after I see actual wins.


Okay, gotcha. I will judge your judgement at the end of the season.:D
 

t-noah

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Feb 2, 2007
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To Sum it Up:
If we Beat UNI and beat them by a lot, We are do for a "Decent Year (80% bowling)
If we Lose or Barely win........Might as well Jump Ship, and buy some extra BuschLite. Ames lager!

UNI: Make or Break Game for ISU!
FIFY! [or any West O Beer!]
 

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