Williams & Blum: Should the Big 12 consider the 4-4-2-2 model?

[HFCS]

5 + 11 is the only option that makes sense. I would rather never get more than one Big 12 team in the playoff than set up a system that says those two conferences are just better and should automatically get twice as many teams in. If they’re better…let them earn it.

Also, I’m not convinced things stay as they are forever. And fairness breeds open competition and innovation.

To me, the biggest barrier to things being fair isn’t the conferences…it’s ESPN. I’m less and less convinced ESPN will be the controlling force it has been 10 years from now.

If you look at all the inputs, the Big Ten should be DRASTICALLY better at basketball than it has been for the last crappy quarter century. Who knows why, but it just very obviously isn’t and it’s like the 3rd-5th best conference, probably 4th on average, when it should be set up for 1 or 2.

Let play decide, encourage non conf games somehow if they chicken out.

 

[1SEIACLONE]

You think the rankings/selection will get way worse than last year? Or you think the Big 12 will actually be much worse at football each passing year? I'm not necessarily disagreeing.

Last year's non B10/SEC teams cfp ranking before playoff bowls:
#5ND (at large outside B10/SEC)
#9BSU (auto in 5+)
#10 SMU (at large in 5+)
#12 ASU (auto in 5+)
#13 Miami (at large in 5+)
#16 Clemson (auto in 5+)
-------
#17 BYU, Big 12 is first team out
#18 ISU, Big 12 is second team out

So the Big Ten would have gotten four either way, The SEC would have got 6 with either system with the 5th and 6th teams being Ole Miss and South Carolina.

The rankings weren't off last year with Big Ten and SEC, they were off the entire year underrating the superior Big 12 vs the inferior ACC. BYU has absolutely nothing on its resume to suggest it should have been even one spot behind SMU let alone 7 spots behind them.

If you could adjust for the mistake of the media and CFP massively overrating ACC vs Big 12, it should have actually been the Big 12 to get 2/3 at large bids. Certainly BYU was more worthy than any ACC team was and they weren't even in the mix for 16 spots, let alone 12.


Big 12 had 3 teams in top 15 of AP poll after bowls/playoff.

How they finished does not matter, it's how they are going to be ranked on selection day. 5 conference winners get in, plus the G5 team, and in most years so will ND. So 7 out of the 16 are going to be locked up before the process starts every year except for that strange year that ND does make it. So we are now looking at 9 spots, you mean to tell me that the B12 is going to get 2 of those nine spots over the ACC, B10 and SEC, more often than not? The B10 and SEC will come up with a formula that ensures their teams are higher ranked, we already see this looking at ESPN formula. Most years we will get one team, with the odd 2nd team which will come down to us and the ACC.

 

[HFCS]

How they finished does not matter, it's how they are going to be ranked on selection day. 5 conference winners get in, plus the G5 team, and in most years so will ND. So 7 out of the 16 are going to be locked up before the process starts every year except for that strange year that ND does make it. So we are now looking at 9 spots, you mean to tell me that the B12 is going to get 2 of those nine spots over the ACC, B10 and SEC, more often than not? The B10 and SEC will come up with a formula that ensures their teams are higher ranked, we already see this looking at ESPN formula. Most years we will get one team, with the odd 2nd team which will come down to us and the ACC.

The rankings I posted were selection day. Big 12 only had one top 16 but had First team out and next team out...that's with them being wildly wrong about ACC vs Big 12 strength.

If...big if...the media doesn't ignore all the data of ACC vs Big 12, the Big 12 gets 2-3 teams instead of ACC. They more or less got Big Ten and SEC correct in terms of number of top 16 teams.

 

[Frak]

How they finished does not matter, it's how they are going to be ranked on selection day. 5 conference winners get in, plus the G5 team, and in most years so will ND. So 7 out of the 16 are going to be locked up before the process starts every year except for that strange year that ND does make it. So we are now looking at 9 spots, you mean to tell me that the B12 is going to get 2 of those nine spots over the ACC, B10 and SEC, more often than not? The B10 and SEC will come up with a formula that ensures their teams are higher ranked, we already see this looking at ESPN formula. Most years we will get one team, with the odd 2nd team which will come down to us and the ACC.

You mean 4 conference champs plus G5 plus ND. So 6 out of 16. With 10 spots up for grabs, I would think we’d get a second more often than not, but obviously the sec and b10 will suck up most of those spots.

I’ve said in the other thread, 4-4-2-2-1 is probably the best result for the B12. I just don’t agree with codifying those two conferences as better forever. Now, if there was a way to revisit even every other year and revise auto bids I’d be all for it.

 

[1SEIACLONE]

The rankings I posted were selection day. Big 12 only had one but had First team out and next team out...that's with them being wildly wrong about ACC vs Big 12 strength.

So this past year we would have only gotten one team in, the ACC and B12 will always lose the SOS game, with the B10 and SEC, the networks have too much money invested in those leagues to not get as many teams from those two leagues as possible. You really think ESPN is going to be in politicking for the B12 or ACC and not the SEC, or Fox not wanting B10 teams in?
This system might not be fair, but we are far less likely to get screwed over compared to using the rankings or a system that ESPN and Fox have a large say in. The B10 and SEC running this show, no way are they going to come up with a system that skips over their teams for B12 and ACC teams. Follow the money.

 

[1SEIACLONE]

You mean 4 conference champs plus G5 plus ND. So 6 out of 16. With 10 spots up for grabs, I would think we’d get a second more often than not, but obviously the sec and b10 will suck up most of those spots.

I’ve said in the other thread, 4-4-2-2-1 is probably the best result for the B12. I just don’t agree with codifying those two conferences as better forever. Now, if there was a way to revisit even every other year and revise auto bids I’d be all for it.

But if we are going to get a 2nd more often than not according to you, why not set that up in the rules that we are guaranteed two teams instead of chancing it? This will play out that one of the ACC or B12 gets a 2nd team in most years, but it will be few and far between when both schools do, and unless we have a lot of 10 win teams, we will rarely get a 3rd team in.

 

[mj4cy]

I don't think there is any way in hell ISU could outwardly say they're for the 4/4/2/2 model...you're basically admitting defeat. You're admitting you're second class and that the best you can ever do is get 2 maybe 3 schools in the playoff. While that could be reality right now, things could change in the future. You have to do everything you possibly can to stay at the table.

 

[HFCS]

So this past year we would have only gotten one team in, the ACC and B12 will always lose the SOS game, with the B10 and SEC, the networks have too much money invested in those leagues to not get as many teams from those two leagues as possible. You really think ESPN is going to be in politicking for the B12 or ACC and not the SEC, or Fox not wanting B10 teams in?
This system might not be fair, but we are far less likely to get screwed over compared to using the rankings or a system that ESPN and Fox have a large say in. The B10 and SEC running this show, no way are they going to come up with a system that skips over their teams for B12 and ACC teams. Follow the money.

ACC would have gotten 3 teams with 5+ 11 even being an objectively worse conference than the Big 12. I'm guessing the truth of 4/4/2/2/1 is that the extra 3 teams will NEVER be ACC or Big 12.

If the committee did a better job ranking Big 12 what it earned vs ACC they'd have both probably gotten two because BYU was more deserving than entire ACC and ASU was Big 12 champ.

Believe me I'm the last person who thinks the Big 12 won't get a 10 foot pole up the rear end with no lube. As far as I'm concerned TCU clearly has an outright national championship already because the committee are criminal liars. I'm just pointing out with the current quality of football, it's not a stretch that Big 12 can have 2 or 3 of the top 16 on actual quality. They clearly did this year if ACC hadn't been overrated for losing to the Big 12. ISU would have been "bubble" no matter what but ASU and BYU were 100% top 16 teams going into playoff.

 

[HFCS]

I don't think there is any way in hell ISU could outwardly say they're for the 4/4/2/2 model...you're basically admitting defeat. You're admitting you're second class and that the best you can ever do is get 2 maybe 3 schools in the playoff. While that could be reality right now, things could change in the future. You have to do everything you possibly can to stay at the table.

If ISU needs the second auto bid to get us into the top 16 when we're actually something like 27th in computer rankings I'm not sure I even want us in there.

I remember when ACC and Big East teams weren't even ranked or ranked 25th and getting one of the 8 BCS spots. I don't want that for the Big 12 or any conference. 1 auto bid for a spot among 16 is fine, no conference needs 2 auto bids.

Put pressure on committee to actually pick the best teams. Don't let them do obvious dishonest evil crap like SMU seven spots above BYU this year when BYU beat them in their own stadium.

 

[isucy86]

It not going to be once in awhile, its going to be most years getting in ONE team, lets be real here, if we do not take the two team guarantee per conference, the B10 and SEC will set up a system that is going to end up with the B12 and ACC fighting over 1 spot per year, sometimes two, while the other two leagues get 9, 10 or more.

I don't see with a 16 team format the Big 12 & ACC each only having 1 team ranked in the top 16 and selected for the CFP most years.

But if the 4-4-2-2 happens, then there will be a 2 team limit for both conferences. I would be surprised if either conference gets 3 teams even if rankings justify.

 

[Aclone]

I’ll take the 4-4-2-2 model.

The Big XII gets four, the B1G and $EC send whatever are the four best of their two conferences (3-1 B1G?), the ACC gets two, and the field (including Notre Dame) gets two.

Seems fair!

 

[WooBadger18]

I don't think there is any way in hell ISU could outwardly say they're for the 4/4/2/2 model...you're basically admitting defeat. You're admitting you're second class and that the best you can ever do is get 2 maybe 3 schools in the playoff. While that could be reality right now, things could change in the future. You have to do everything you possibly can to stay at the table.

Yeah, and it helps your negotiating position down the road.

At some point, the Big 10 and SEC will probably come back and renegotiate the playoff structure to benefit themselves even more. If you do the 5+11 format, you have more room to negotiate. If you do the 4+4+2+2 etc. format you basically have no room

Edit: added “even more”

 

[HFCS]

I’ll take the 4-4-2-2 model.

The Big XII gets four, the B1G and $EC send whatever are the four best of their two conferences (3-1 B1G?), the ACC gets two, and the field (including Notre Dsne) gets two.

Seems fair!

Before realignment insanity you could have fed the major conferences into an 8 team playoff with access for the non power conferences and 1/2 at large bids and it would have been absolutely perfect.

CCGs effectively make it a 16 team playoff structure. The SEC and Big Ten wouldn't need all these extra bids because the teams that have made them stronger would still be in other conferences. If the SEC was still super dominant...well you'll get the #1 seed most years. SEC wins 4 of 5 NCs...well you'll probably be the one getting the at large while other leagues only get their one.

So dumb we ended up here instead of there.

 

[Nothingman]

One of the best parts of college football is seeing the ebb and flow of conference power. The SEC absolutely hasn’t always been the best or even second best conference in college football. If all of this was going on in the 80s or 90s, the SEC might only get two auto bids and the big 8/12 would get four.

I hate giving any power conference nearly insurmountable advantages just because they’re good now. Leave it as it is. The SEC and Big 10 have enough advantages currently. If you can’t earn it with double the money and ESPN backing, you don’t ******* deserve it.

 

[1SEIACLONE]

Look at the playoff last season, in a 12 team playoff the B12 only got one team in, in the four remaining spots Miami would have taken one of those, so would have have Alabama. I just do not see a 2nd team from the B12 getting one of the last two spots, and we are going to have that on a yearly basis. Take the 2 guaranteed spots and then hope that the conference has a strong enough team some years to get a 3rd pick. Otherwise we will end up most years getting in the champion and then hoping our 2nd team is also taken.

 

[cyatheart]

I don't think there is any way in hell ISU could outwardly say they're for the 4/4/2/2 model...you're basically admitting defeat. You're admitting you're second class and that the best you can ever do is get 2 maybe 3 schools in the playoff. While that could be reality right now, things could change in the future. You have to do everything you possibly can to stay at the table.

This is right I think. Giving the big ten 4 is nuts, just can't do it. Yes they will screw us, but if we go down this road there are so many bad consequences.

 

[cykadelic2]

Look at the playoff last season, in a 12 team playoff the B12 only got one team in, in the four remaining spots Miami would have taken one of those, so would have have Alabama. I just do not see a 2nd team from the B12 getting one of the last two spots, and we are going to have that on a yearly basis. Take the 2 guaranteed spots and then hope that the conference has a strong enough team some years to get a 3rd pick. Otherwise we will end up most years getting in the champion and then hoping our 2nd team is also taken.

Yeah,go tell CMC you’re in favor this and he will tell you you’re flipping out of your mind even thinking about multiple AQs. It’s recruiting suicide for ISU.

 

[cyclones500]

Yeah,go tell CMC you’re in favor this and he will tell you you’re flipping out of your mind even thinking about multiple AQs. It’s recruiting suicide for ISU.

I think @brentblum makes a similar argument in the podcast. If I interpret his comments correctly.

 

[cykadelic2]

I think @brentblum makes a similar argument in the podcast. If I interpret his comments correctly.

Yeah, he did.

 

[1SEIACLONE]

Yeah,go tell CMC you’re in favor this and he will tell you you’re flipping out of your mind even thinking about multiple AQs. It’s recruiting suicide for ISU.

You go ask him would he rather have taken the 2nd guaranteed spot in the playoffs last season or not making it because that spot that would have been theirs went to a SEC team.
Recruiting suicide is being in a league that most years gets ONE playoff team instead of two. This whole idea being floated that taking this deal will make the ACC and B12 a "lesser" league, is fantasy, hate to tell you, but people already believe that. The league never got two teams into the 4 team playoff and never won a game when we did get in. Both the B10 and SEC have either Fox or ESPN weighing in on their side, both have invested hundreds of millions into those two leagues and people that somehow think that they want a "fair" system to pick the teams are out of their head.