Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[FriendlySpartan]

Good god man, look around. The wolf is already inside and it isn’t PE

We have all the negatives associated with PE- everyone trying to “get theirs” with little regard to the long term greater good of the sport

Prisoners dilemmas. Decades of arms race spending. No rules. Student athletes in name only.

Schools making $150 million in revenue needing fans to pay more or contribute to NIL and likely needing to cut sports. Schools making $100 million in revenue still needing to draw on millions in student fees to play sports

Schools being required to show a profit by their PE overlords (aka keep costs down) is hardly worse than what we will have going forward

Man the wolf is already in on an 11 win football season and a top 3 basketball team? Damn should have let that wolf in awhile ago apparently.

 

[Die4Cy]

So go back to the way it was before the NCAA v. Board of Regents of the University of Oklahoma case and those cases involved with it and the CFA?

The NCAA controlled the media rights similar to the way the NFL controls them now, I dont see them voiding that law and giving the NCAA more power to negotiate media contracts.

This is part of the issue here, the NFL negotiates as a league. In CFB since that case the schools and conferences hold their rights, so each is negotiated separately. So properties deemed more valuable get more.

All the many losses by the NCAA just makes it more and more unlikely that CFB will come together as a unit like the NFL.

The NCAA or another group governing CFB is going to get an antitrust exemption at some point. All court rulings against them recently are due to the fact that they currently do not have that status. Do people not understand this?

 

[2speedy1]

The NCAA or another group governing CFB is going to get an antitrust exemption at some point. All court rulings against them recently are due to the fact that they currently do not have that status. Do people not understand this?

So we are going to just ignore all those losses then, and return to the way it was 40 years ago? I dont see it.

 

[cykadelic2]

Oregon St and WSU think you’re being naive

Regardless, you continue to ignore that relegation can occur via a growing revenue and linear coverage disparity, without actually any formal relegating. Keep paying the leftovers around their current rate, plus more CFP access and more in CFP postseason revenue than ever before means it’s very difficult to argue relegation and damages have occurred

Courts aren’t going to mandate all conferences get equal revenue or access or brand exposure

It is already well underway. Talk of P2 separation, then talk of legal recourse…with a compromise of inclusion, but unequal revenue. Next it will be unequal autos. All on top of unequal TV deals and unequal premium exposure

Salary caps or NIL intervention would help mitigate the informal relegation somewhat, falling behind in the arms race and coaching salaries, but at least able to pay players around the same salary

Your theory goes wheels off when you naively suggest that the 25-30 leftovers like ISU will continue to be paid $30M-$40M annually. They clearly won't. It will be more like $10M annually if ESPN and Fox maintain their duopoly with the SEC and B10. Without CFP access, no other network will be incentivized to pay the leftovers more than $10 annually. And that financial relegation of those 25-30 schools will clearly warrant intervention of some kind.

 

[FinalFourCy]

So the feds will make the B1G give the boot to Penn St., Nebraska, USC, Oregon, etc., and bring back the University of Chicago?

This is going to be quite the shake up.

Drinking.

Imo the issue isn’t that you can’t get enough schools yearning for the historical regional conferences if they could make similar money to now

It’s that unless they only played 4 conference games, the networks won’t pay for it, regardless of how much leverage is gained by going “NFL style” on TV rights

 

[Cloneon]

Later on this decade before the B10, B12 and CFP TV deals expire in 2031-32 but the lobbying and groundwork has already started to some extent with the CST and Rudy/Smash initiatives.

That timing will likely be accelerated if ESPN doesn't pick up the 2027 ACC option by the end of FEB25 and the ACC blows up as a result with potentially 8 ACC schools being relegated in 2027.

I think it's more likely ESPN, Clemson/FSU and the ACC settle on a revised ACC contract that moves GOR expiration from 2036 to 2030-31.

Investments are interesting. Some people make money on shorts. Most make money on growth. From everything I've read from you, if you could, you'd 'short' Iowa State. I've been on the thinking of 'shorts' several times in my life. The only problem is, the mindset of free market is 'growth'. All of your arguments are based on a static viewership where the media companies are trying to 'move' viewership to their brands. And, while, I agree with that being unethical, I can't help but think the majority of viewership is poised for growth. And, if that's the case, there's also room for media value growth. Come 2032 (or whenever the ideal contract situation presents itself) I believe there'd be at least one other player. And that'd really change things. Especially if Yormark's plans of improved and increased 'branding' work.

 

[FinalFourCy]

Your theory goes wheels off when you naively suggest that the 25-30 leftovers like ISU will continue to be paid $30M-$40M annually. They clearly won't. It will be more like $10M annually if ESPN and Fox maintain their duopoly with the SEC and B10. Without CFP access, no other network will be incentivized to pay the leftovers more than $10 annually. And that financial relegation of those 25-30 schools will clearly warrant intervention of some kind.

I get you take comfort in thinking that, but if there is any tangible risk of federal intervention from paying 25-30 schools $10 million and giving no CFP access results in federal intervention, it won’t happen

Because it doesn’t need to occur for relegation to occur, or for the networks to make money off the P2. The Big 12 at $30 million and with CFP access isn’t costing the P2 or networks much

The two risks (separation and intervention) have already been introduced in negotiations and resulted in compromise. That will continue

 

[QBEagles]

Is there a reason we're courting PE investments rather than getting a loan or having the general fund cover any shortfalls like a normal athletic department? Expecting things to get better after we sell off equity/control to outside entities sounds more like hope than a plan, and the proposals I've seen so far don't really need an outside force to implement.

 

[FinalFourCy]

Man the wolf is already in on an 11 win football season and a top 3 basketball team? Damn should have let that wolf in awhile ago apparently.

Please explain how this comment refutes anything. Are you actually thinking that athletic performance, specifically Iowa State’s performance in a gutted Big 12 that got lower treatment than P2 in CFP seeding, is actually a measure of the wolf?

I assure you there will be 11 win teams and rankings with PE too. And in a PE cost cutting world, such a year like this wouldn’t be such outlier seasons for those needing to send a letter begging for more money

 

[FriendlySpartan]

Please explain how this comment refutes anything. Are you actually thinking that athletic performance, specifically Iowa State’s performance in a gutted Big 12 that got lower treatment than P2 in CFP seeding, is actually a measure of the wolf?

I assure you there will be 11 win teams and rankings with PE too. And in a PE cost cutting world, such a year like this wouldn’t be such outlier seasons for those needing to send a letter begging for more money

PE is only profit, you think people are already complaining about prices in the other thread, just wait if PE gets involved. They will make current ISU prices look like a dream.

Again PE destroys everything and as much as this board hates to admit it, all of the changes have been nothing but a boon so far for ISU as parity has been increased across the board in many ways.

As much as people like to ***** and moan since NIL and Transfers have been in place ISU athletics has never been better

 

[cykadelic2]

So the feds will make the B1G give the boot to Penn St., Nebraska, USC, Oregon, etc., and bring back the University of Chicago?

This is going to be quite the shake up.

Drinking.

Yeah, the Feds will break up the Fox/B10 and ESPN/SEC duopoly to prevent relegation and destruction of 25-30 more schools like ISU. The result of that will be rational geographic realignment because the ONLY reason for the existence of the 18 school B10 and 16 school SEC clustereffs was for the sole benefit of ESPN and Fox regular season FB inventory.

 

[FinalFourCy]

Is there a reason we're courting PE investments rather than getting a loan or having the general fund cover any shortfalls like a normal athletic department? Expecting things to get better after we sell off equity/control to outside entities sounds more like hope than a plan, and the proposals I've seen so far don't really need an outside force to implement.

Because a loan without the macros of the industry changing is just delaying things

Getting a loan to help get us to the other side should be on the table, but it’s success depends on there being the “other side”


And why would we care about giving up equity and upside if you get them to finance annually at some satisfactory benchmark? We’re non-profit and live to the means. Unloading risk for the certainty of a fixed for floating is better than getting left behind


The sport undergoing a restructuring into an aggregate entity represents one of the possible other sides. There will be schools willing to jump in with PE to get that started

 

[12191987]

So the feds will make the B1G give the boot to Penn St., Nebraska, USC, Oregon, etc., and bring back the University of Chicago?

This is going to be quite the shake up.

Drinking.

The University of Chicago isn’t leaving the UAA.

All of its schools are AAU members.

 

[Die4Cy]

PE is only profit, you think people are already complaining about prices in the other thread, just wait if PE gets involved. They will make current ISU prices look like a dream.

Again PE destroys everything and as much as this board hates to admit it, all of the changes have been nothing but a boon so far for ISU as parity has been increased across the board in many ways.

As much as people like to ***** and moan since NIL and Transfers have been in place ISU athletics has never been better

These ******* Big 10 supporters rolling around in their piles of money telling everyone else how they're supposed to feel about funding their programs through a distorted system that they created?

Get lost.

 

[FinalFourCy]

PE is only profit, you think people are already complaining about prices in the other thread, just wait if PE gets involved. They will make current ISU prices look like a dream.

Again PE destroys everything and as much as this board hates to admit it, all of the changes have been nothing but a boon so far for ISU as parity has been increased across the board in many ways.

As much as people like to ***** and moan since NIL and Transfers have been in place ISU athletics has never been better

Yes, about showing profit. That’s something this industry needs

Much better for everyone to need to give an investor a profit than it only being about individuals getting as much as they can without regard to actual profit uncapped pending. Zero rules. Sports about to be cut. Fans getting asked for more money every year

The current performance success is nice, yet the department has never been in more peril. Moreover, please lay out the logic behind thinking PE lowers odds of this reoccurring over the course college athletics is currently on

 

[Gonzo]

Yeah, the Feds will break up the Fox/B10 and ESPN/SEC duopoly to prevent relegation and destruction of 25-30 more schools like ISU. The result of that will be rational geographic realignment because the ONLY reason for the existence of the 18 school B10 and 16 school SEC clustereffs was for the sole benefit of ESPN and Fox regular season FB inventory.

So the federal government is going to be in charge of creating college football conferences?

 

[FriendlySpartan]

These ******* Big 10 supporters rolling around in their piles of money telling everyone else how they're supposed to feel about funding their programs through a distorted system that they created?

Get lost.

Dude it’s private equity, find any industry that PE is heavily involved in and I’ll show you a bunch of horrific outcomes for all involved but PE

 

[12191987]

Yeah, the Feds will break up the Fox/B10 and ESPN/SEC duopoly to prevent relegation and destruction of 25-30 more schools like ISU. The result of that will be rational geographic realignment because the ONLY reason for the existence of the 18 school B10 and 16 school SEC clustereffs was for the sole benefit of ESPN and Fox regular season FB inventory.

For what it is worth I agree with you on everything except the result being destruction of those 25-30 schools, federal involvement on media deals, and the resulting realignment.

 

[cykadelic2]

So the federal government is going to be in charge of creating college football conferences?

No.

But if any of them watched Illinois play Washington today or watched Clemson playing Cal yesterday in MBB conference play, can't blame them for going WTF is going on here?

 

[cykadelic2]

For what it is worth I agree with you on everything except the result being destruction of those 25-30 schools, federal involvement on media deals, and the resulting realignment.

Well, keep sticking your head in the sand and you'll see ISU financially relegated with plenty of cheap tickets at JTS and and Hilton starting in 2032 if Fox and ESPN continue to have their way. There is good reason why the new Otz and CMC contact extensions both expire that year. And I don't blame potential CyTown tenants for having reservations on investing there until ISU's conference affiliation status and TV revenue streams are determined beyond 2032.