2024-2025 MBB computer projections thread

[FinalFourCy]

Seems to be more on the interior although I'd need to see shot charts.

A guy like BRE had great lateral movement and created havoc in the lane.

Plus Rob was great at knowing where to be and executing. Tough, great leader…I’d take a Rob on every roster and it’s fantastic knowing this staff identified his value despite the stat sheet at Denver being modest

Ward also had great lateral movement and could really cover ground

It was as going to be very difficult to not have a step back on defense, at least initially

 

[cyclones500]

Plus Rob was great at knowing where to be and executing. Tough, great leader…I’d take a Rob on every roster and it’s fantastic knowing this staff identified his value despite the stat sheet at Denver being modest

Ward also had great lateral movement and could really cover ground

It was as going to be very difficult to not have a step back on defense, at least initially

True, they probably were under-appreciated defensively.

Of course we know there's a positive trade-off w/ The Presidents for offensive production (and, notably, FT shooting).

 

[Thomasrickj]

True, they probably were under-appreciated defensively.

Of course we know there's a positive trade-off w/ The Presidents for offensive production (and, notably, FT shooting).

I forgot how bad our free throw shooting was with BRE and Ward. We upgraded from 53% to 82% with the presidents. Massive difference.

 

[NoCreativity]

And people seem to think Maui/Feast Week defines how everything else will go.

I think ISU can win Monday but I'm thinking they get jumped on a bit and it's more like the Iowa game.

We'll see if they can get stops when needed.

You think we are going to lose every single game in every sport.

 

[madguy30]

You think we are going to lose every single game in every sport.

But you quote a post of me saying I think ISU can win?

Checks out.

 

[NoCreativity]

But you quote a post of me saying I think ISU can win?

Checks out.

Yeah, but every single time you discuss a game beforehand you are coming up with ways you expect us to lose. I guess that's one way to look at things, expect a loss so the wins are more satisfying.

 

[madguy30]

Yeah, but every single time you discuss a game beforehand you are coming up with ways you expect us to lose. I guess that's one way to look at things, expect a loss so the wins are more satisfying.

Well I find it foolish to say a team will just win because they played well one month ago since sports doesn't work like that for all sorts of reasons.

Can you please cite a concrete example of me expecting a loss?

Like actually saying 'ISU will lose this game.'

I'll give you Iowa because they tend to light up ISU in Carver and it looked very much that way for most of the game.

I'm sure there's others as in if I watch a team and can see their strengths being an issue for ISU.

'Every game in every sport' is just more hyperbole though.

 

[AuH2O]

I’m not looking at anything but our blocked shot numbers have to be down it feels like. I feel like Tamin is our leading shot blocker.

A few games Jackson has had some blocks. Ward had a lot last year. I think ISUs three bugs are pretty good defensively, but Ward and Rob were elite.

Tom Crean is annoying, but it was interesting during halftime one of our games Crean referred to Rob as the QB of the defense last year and one of the best defensive big men in the country.

But man Jefferson is a weapon and Swiss Army knife and Jackson’s ability to hit FTs makes him a great weapon.

 

[Sigmapolis]

I would just like to say it’s great to be discussing computer analytics instead of generalities.

Hence why I make this thread every season to consolidate the discussion.

Basketball has the best-developed analytics of any major sport with the exception of baseball. Baseball has better individual metrics than basketball (though that gap is closing over time) but basketball has very well-developed team metrics and there are so many good and free (e.g., Torvik) or cheap (e.g., KenPom) resources that anybody with even a basic comprehension of statistics can understand well.

Plus Rob was great at knowing where to be and executing. Tough, great leader…I’d take a Rob on every roster and it’s fantastic knowing this staff identified his value despite the stat sheet at Denver being modest

Ward also had great lateral movement and could really cover ground

It was as going to be very difficult to not have a step back on defense, at least initially

A hypothetical I've been kicking around in my head...

You're given the chance to select three of these six guys.

Brandton Chatfield
Dishon Jackson
Joshua Jefferson
Rob Jones
Tre King III
Hason Ward

Which ones do you choose? Do you take the size and offensive skill of the Presidents? Do you take the defense acumen and lateral quickness of Rob Jones? Do you take Ward's spring? Do you take Tre or Brandton's toughness and rebounding ability? What is the optimal three to mix together?

For my money... Jackson/Jefferson (simply too skilled not to keep) and Jones > Chatfield.

Rob comin' off the bench with Curtis Jones rockin' the headband, the 'stache, and the 'fro ready to ******* go with 15:39 on the clock in the first half sounds like a role he would just relish here.

I forgot how bad our free throw shooting was with BRE and Ward. We upgraded from 53% to 82% with the presidents. Massive difference.

I agree with your point but wanted to run a little math on it...

Jackson = 41/53 (77.4%)
Jefferson = 32/40 (80.0%)
---
Presidents = 73/93 (78.5%)

Senior BRE = 51/100 (51.0%)
Senior Ward = 26/45 (57.8%)
---
BRE/Ward = 77/145 (53.1%)

78.5% minus 53.1% = 25.4%

Take 25.4% of the makes away from the presidents makes them 49/93 (52.7%), which is 24 fewer points than we have earned with the improved FT shooting from the center position.

We've played 11 games. Adding 24 points over 11 games is 2.18 PPG.

College games are usually around ~72 possessions. So the per 100 addition is 2.18/0.72 =

2.94 per 100 added to the offensive output

Team actual 2025 so far = 125.6
Team actual 2024 = 113.6

125.6 minus 113.6 = 12.0

2.94 / 12.0 = 24.5%

So, about a fourth of the improvement in the offense is from their improved FT%. I will also note that the Presidents draw A TON of fouls compared to the guys last year. They're averaging 8.45 attempts per game while BRE and Ward were averaging only 3.92 per game between the two of them.

More than double the volume and a much better make rate... nice.

This analysis reminds me of one I found for the NFL a few years ago (and I cannot seem to find it again) about how much of the improvement in NFL scoring/offenses since the 1970s has simply been kickers making more field goals at longer ranges more consistently. That the increase in pass-first offenses, the "Age of the Quarterback," and rule changes and changes in rule enforcement that seemed to favor the offense wasn't the deciding factor but rather just that NFL kickers had become robots where any miss is shocking nowadays.

 

[Gunnerclone]

That's surprising.

There’s a difference between a blocked shot and a blocked shot out of nowhere to save a 100% make. I think that’s where it’s different. The blocks are there, they just haven’t been huge blocks yet.

 

[Statefan10]

There’s a difference between a blocked shot and a blocked shot out of nowhere to save a 100% make. I think that’s where it’s different. The blocks are there, they just haven’t been huge blocks yet.

Jackson did have 1 or 2 in the Marquette game that I was like DAMN, but Ward was so quick and long where he'd have some chase down one's that were electric.

 

[alarson]

That's surprising.

Be curious what those numbers were this point last year. I aassume the numbers go down a bit during conference season

 

[FinalFourCy]

Hence why I make this thread every season to consolidate the discussion.

Basketball has the best-developed analytics of any major sport with the exception of baseball. Baseball has better individual metrics than basketball (though that gap is closing over time) but basketball has very well-developed team metrics and there are so many good and free (e.g., Torvik) or cheap (e.g., KenPom) resources that anybody with even a basic comprehension of statistics can understand well.



A hypothetical I've been kicking around in my head...

You're given the chance to select three of these six guys.

Brandton Chatfield
Dishon Jackson
Joshua Jefferson
Rob Jones
Tre King III
Hason Ward

Which ones do you choose? Do you take the size and offensive skill of the Presidents? Do you take the defense acumen and lateral quickness of Rob Jones? Do you take Ward's spring? Do you take Tre or Brandton's toughness and rebounding ability? What is the optimal three to mix together?

For my money... Jackson/Jefferson (simply too skilled not to keep) and Jones > Chatfield.

Rob comin' off the bench with Curtis Jones rockin' the headband, the 'stache, and the 'fro ready to ******* go with 15:39 on the clock in the first half sounds like a role he would just relish here.



I agree with your point but wanted to run a little math on it...

Jackson = 41/53 (77.4%)
Jefferson = 32/40 (80.0%)
---
Presidents = 73/93 (78.5%)

Senior BRE = 51/100 (51.0%)
Senior Ward = 26/45 (57.8%)
---
BRE/Ward = 77/145 (53.1%)

78.5% minus 53.1% = 25.4%

Take 25.4% of the makes away from the presidents makes them 49/93 (52.7%), which is 24 fewer points than we have earned with the improved FT shooting from the center position.

We've played 11 games. Adding 24 points over 11 games is 2.18 PPG.

College games are usually around ~72 possessions. So the per 100 addition is 2.18/0.72 =

2.94 per 100 added to the offensive output

Team actual 2025 so far = 125.6
Team actual 2024 = 113.6

125.6 minus 113.6 = 12.0

2.94 / 12.0 = 24.5%

So, about a fourth of the improvement in the offense is from their improved FT%. I will also note that the Presidents draw A TON of fouls compared to the guys last year. They're averaging 8.45 attempts per game while BRE and Ward were averaging only 3.92 per game between the two of them.

More than double the volume and a much better make rate... nice.

This analysis reminds me of one I found for the NFL a few years ago (and I cannot seem to find it again) about how much of the improvement in NFL scoring/offenses since the 1970s has simply been kickers making more field goals at longer ranges more consistently. That the increase in pass-first offenses, the "Age of the Quarterback," and rule changes and changes in rule enforcement that seemed to favor the offense wasn't the deciding factor but rather just that NFL kickers had become robots where any miss is shocking nowadays.

I’d go with Jefferson and Rob, then senior Ward or Jackson…but I’d like to see more of how Jackson does in Big 12.

 

[CySmurf]

Yeah, but every single time you discuss a game beforehand you are coming up with ways you expect us to lose. I guess that's one way to look at things, expect a loss so the wins are more satisfying.

Lots of people do that. MadGuy30 doesn't have the market cornered on that.

 

[madguy30]

Lots of people do that. MadGuy30 doesn't have the market cornered on that.

Me saying 'X team has some speed and will be an issue' or 'ISU will need to play well to win' is apparently the same as saying ISU will lose.

Maybe I should add 'concerns' or 'pathetic effort' or 'ISU almost beat Auburn in November so they'll probably just make the Final Four' to more posts to not stand out so much.

 

[CySmurf]

Me saying 'X team has some speed and will be an issue' or 'ISU will need to play well to win' is apparently the same as saying ISU will lose.

Maybe I should add 'concerns' or 'pathetic effort' or 'ISU almost beat Auburn in November so they'll probably just make the Final Four' to more posts to not stand out so much.

Im not sure what the big deal is that you have concerns about ISU winning a game before it starts. I think everyone has that. This is not like JoeFrog where he finds fault AFTER every game...whether they win or lose.

 

[Chitowncy]

Be curious what those numbers were this point last year. I aassume the numbers go down a bit during conference season

Probably so as our average competition improves over the next 3 months. I haven't dove into the numbers, but do we have more possessions per game so far this year as well? That could also skew blocks higher. I would think we're playing faster, and with more possessions we get more opportunities for blocks.

 

[NWICY]

Just my two cents but we look like we are tired of playing buy games and the boys are ready for conference play.

Winning by 30 you can't expect total concentration. When it's been crunch time, this team has answered the bell every time. Only 1 loss and that sure as hell wasn't from a lack of effort. I agree with you 100%.

 

[NENick]

On a per game basis, our blocked shots are actually up so far - 3.6 to 3.1 last year. Dishon Jackson is averaging as many blocked shots as Ward did at 1.2 per game. Tamin is tied for 4th.

Didn't Jack's have 6 blocks last game? That'll skew the average.

Actually 5. So 8 in the other 9 games. Still not bad.

 

[Dgilbertson]

That's surprising.

They’re less demonstrative, above the rim blocks. Very few swats, more taps and knocking it out if their hand while shooting under the hoop.