Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[isucy86]

You are right about your last point on parity. But maybe that’s the question everyone should be asking instead of just that’s the way it’s always been.

Shouldn’t the question be moving forward “Why can’t there be parity?”

Agree, improving competitive balance should be a goal of CFB leaders. Parity is probably not realistic because the financial resources available to schools that draw 100k+ fans to games is very different from schools that draw 50k. And college sport teams recruit vs. draft to fill their roster. But CFB leaders could incorporate structures like scheduling, # of non-coaching roles, sport specific spending caps, etc. to create more competitive balance.

I hope coach's resistance to playing "big" non-conference games on the road or neutral sites diminishes with the new 12 team playoff. It was understandable with a 4 team playoff because the difference between a 1 & 2 loss season could easily be the difference between making the CFP and not. But with a 12 team playoff, based on history about 50% of the seasons a 3 loss team would have received a CFP bid.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

Agree, improving competitive balance should be a goal of CFB leaders. Parity is probably not realistic because the financial resources available to schools that draw 100k+ fans to games is very different from schools that draw 50k. And college sport teams recruit vs. draft to fill their roster. But CFB leaders could incorporate structures like scheduling, # of non-coaching roles, sport specific spending caps, etc. to create more competitive balance.

I hope coach's resistance to playing "big" non-conference games on the road or neutral sites diminishes with the new 12 team playoff. It was understandable with a 4 team playoff because the difference between a 1 & 2 loss season could easily be the difference between making the CFP and not. But with a 12 team playoff, based on history about 50% of the seasons a 3 loss team would have received a CFP bid.

A lot of teams have played “big” non con games on the road or neutral sites, it happens pretty regularly. If you asking for most of the non con to be those games I think coaches will push back (somewhat smartly) as the G5 games give the team a warm up of sorts.

One of the major issues with the scheduling is that it’s often in advance so what could look like a big game at the time falls flat.

Also none of what you mentioned will a fully help with parity. The only reason parity works in the pros is due to the draft. As long as you have recurring there won’t and can’t be parity.

 

[isucy86]

A lot of teams have played “big” non con games on the road or neutral sites, it happens pretty regularly. If you asking for most of the non con to be those games I think coaches will push back (somewhat smartly) as the G5 games give the team a warm up of sorts.

One of the major issues with the scheduling is that it’s often in advance so what could look like a big game at the time falls flat.

Also none of what you mentioned will a fully help with parity. The only reason parity works in the pros is due to the draft. As long as you have recurring there won’t and can’t be parity.

Sure we see a lot of mis-match games between power conference teams. But as I posted yesterday, the last 2 years we have seen 5 & 6 non-conference games between 2 teams ranked in the Top25 when the game was played. I would call that few games, not "a lot".

 

[FriendlySpartan]

Sure we see a lot of mis-match games between power conference teams. But as I posted yesterday, the last 2 years we have seen 5 & 6 non-conference games between 2 teams ranked in the Top25 when the game was played. I would call that few games, not "a lot".

So here’s a classic example. In 2021 a ranked Michigan played Washington who had a new coach and was awful. That should be a big game but due to the change it’s not. A year later in 2022 Washington isn’t ranked but is supposed to play a ranked MSU team in a “big” game. However MSU is now awful coming off their 11 win season and is in free fall so sparty loses their ranking and Washington is now ranked. So in 2023 Washington is ranked highly but sparty is firing Tucker so that game is awful once again so only one side is ranked.

Having 5-6 non con ranked games is actually extremely impressive because unless you’re scheduling teams that are always ranked in the top 10 it’s very likely that you’re not going to have that matchup as teams rise and fall.

Finally the non con games are almost always early in the season so it’s also all about pre season rankings. Which as we know can be very wrongly skewed based on last years performance, returning players, and recruiting/transfers.

 

[isucy86]

So here’s a classic example. In 2021 a ranked Michigan played Washington who had a new coach and was awful. That should be a big game but due to the change it’s not. A year later in 2022 Washington isn’t ranked but is supposed to play a ranked MSU team in a “big” game. However MSU is now awful coming off their 11 win season and is in free fall so sparty loses their ranking and Washington is now ranked. So in 2023 Washington is ranked highly but sparty is firing Tucker so that game is awful once again so only one side is ranked.

Having 5-6 non con ranked games is actually extremely impressive because unless you’re scheduling teams that are always ranked in the top 10 it’s very likely that you’re not going to have that matchup as teams rise and fall.

Finally the non con games are almost always early in the season so it’s also all about pre season rankings. Which as we know can be very wrongly skewed based on last years performance, returning players, and recruiting/transfers.

Not going to argue what looks like a Top 25 match-up before the season starts doesn't always happen. The Iowa vs. Iowa State non-con match-up this year is an example where expectations have flip-flopped. But you're focusing on negative scenarios and not the positive- which is more games between Top25 teams. Isn't that a good thing for fans and college football?

So 5-6 games between two rated teams is impressive? Wow, I guess our opinions on what's "impressive" differ greatly. There are historically around 6 non-con games a year between 2 Top 25 teams and about 75 non-con games played by Top 25 teams are against un-ranked opponents. Don't think I'd say 7.4% of non-con games between 2 ranked teams is impressive.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

Not going to argue what looks like a Top 25 match-up before the season starts doesn't always happen. The Iowa vs. Iowa State non-con match-up this year is an example where expectations have flip-flopped. But you're focusing on negative scenarios and not the positive- which is more games between Top25 teams. Isn't that a good thing for fans and college football?

So 5-6 games between two rated teams is impressive? Wow, I guess our opinions on what's "impressive" differ greatly. There are historically around 6 non-con games a year between 2 Top 25 teams and about 75 non-con games played by Top 25 teams are against un-ranked opponents. Don't think I'd say 7.4% of non-con games are between 2 ranked teams is impressive.

How do you guarantee those ranked games though?

You also realize that 10 of the 25 teams that started the season ranked aren’t ranked anymore right? That’s why having that many games is pretty good.

 

[HFCS]

I’ve read before that the contract for the Iowa-ISU series already has language in it that allows the series to be cancelled if either team has a material change in their conference scheduling obligations, which I’m assuming this would trigger if it happens.

I’m guessing Georgia, Florida, and South Carolina don’t have that language in their contracts so they would have to play out the remaining games that are already scheduled. And who knows, even if they did add this additional game those 3 schools may want to keep playing their in-state rival anyway.

In Iowa’s case I would imagine there would be some political pressure to keep the series but I would have said the same thing about Oklahoma and look how that played out.

In Iowa’s defense in that scenario, 9 games in improved divisionless b10 + SEC game + current competitive ISU and just one other game would consistently be a top 10 SOS when their typical for decades has been more like 40ish.

 

[HFCS]

That's cool. With the difficulty scheduling non-conf games on short notice this makes a lot of sense.

I know this would normally be absurd, but with the scheduling difficulties they had for this year, had they scheduled against each other for four games this year they maybe could have avoided the scheduling expenses they had for the games against MW teams in addition to the poaching penalties they have to pay.

It’s not crazy that we could play KSU 3 times in 4 games coming up. I’m not hoping for that but it’s possible.

 

[1SEIACLONE]

In Iowa’s defense in that scenario, 9 games in improved divisionless b10 + SEC game + current competitive ISU and just one other game would consistently be a top 10 SOS when their typical for decades has been more like 40ish.

If the B10 and SEC start having scheduling non conference games between them, the ISU/EIU game will go away. They have convinced themselves that they need to host 7 home games a year to keep the door open over east, even though they are in the top 20 in revenue. The real reason is to provide a couple easy wins and by keeping ISU that is not longer the case going forward.
Said it when then did away from the pillow soft B10 least, no program will be hurt more by the change than EIU. Under the new set-up they are not going to be able to avoid the big dogs from the east while playing the horrible teams from the west. Looks like the coaches at Nebraska and Wisconsin are looking better in year two of their coaching change, and EIU is going to be in trouble going forward.

 

[isucy86]

How do you guarantee those ranked games though?

You also realize that 10 of the 25 teams that started the season ranked aren’t ranked anymore right? That’s why having that many games is pretty good.

Doesn't ESPN currently publish a "Too Soon" Top 25 for the next season right after the current season ends? If ESPN can do it, so could a CFB governance body in the Jan/Feb time frame. So easy to ensure that EVERY Top 25 pre-season team schedules another Top 25 team based on preseason rankings.

Sure a top 25 team could drop out prior to their non-con match-up (which typically happens during the first 3 weeks). There is no way around that. You're putting an impossible perfect solution before progress.

Part of the difficulty for a selection committee with a 12 team playoff is the differences between teams ranked 9-12 vs. 13-16. It is going to be much more blurred than selecting a 4 team playoff. So CFB leadership is going to need to take steps to create more competitive non-con games to help differentiate teams ranked 9 to 16 at seasons end.

 

[Gonzo]

If the B10 and SEC start having scheduling non conference games between them, the ISU/EIU game will go away. They have convinced themselves that that they need to host 7 home games a year to keep the door open over east, even though they are in the top 20 in revenue. The real reason is to provide a couple easy wins and by keeping ISU that is not longer the case going forward.
Said it when then did away from the pillow soft B10 least, no program will be hurt more by the change than EIU. Under the new set-up they are not going to be able to avoid the big dogs from the east while playing the horrible teams from the west. Through in the Nebraska and Wisconsin are looking better in year two of their coaching change, and EIU is going to be in trouble going forward.

Depends on how you look at it. Agree that our schedule will be much tougher and that our record is going to reflect that, but it's going to be fun having regular games against the bluebloods and if our W record trending down does happen and it facilitates KF's exit, I'm all for it.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

Doesn't ESPN currently publish a "Too Soon" Top 25 for the next season right after the current season ends? If ESPN can do it, so could a CFB governance body in the Jan/Feb time frame. So easy to ensure that EVERY Top 25 pre-season team schedules another Top 25 team based on preseason rankings.

Sure a top 25 team could drop out prior to their non-con match-up (which typically happens during the first 3 weeks). There is no way around that. You're putting an impossible perfect solution for progress.

Part of the difficulty for a selection committee with a 12 team playoff is the differences between teams ranked 9-12 vs. 13-16 is going to be much more blurred than selecting a 4 team playoff. So CFB leadership is going to need to take steps to create more competitive non-con games to help differentiate teams ranked 9 to 16 at seasons end.

I like the idea, it will never happen, but I like the idea

 

[HFCS]

Depends on how you look at it. Agree that our schedule will be much tougher and that our record is going to reflect that, but it's going to be fun having regular games against the bluebloods and if our W record trending down does happen and it facilitates KF's exit, I'm all for it.

I’m continually fascinated why Iowa fans are looking foward to change from KF yet cling to Fran. One is your GOAT, the other is almost impossibly mediocre.

If I was AD I’d have hung onto KF all these years but I’d by thrilled to swap out Fran’s body of work for the randomness of what 4-5 other coaches may have done in that full generation of Iowa bball.

It’s not like Fran isn’t equally old too. Just wildly less accomplished at his job than KF.

 

[Gonzo]

I’m continually fascinated why Iowa fans are looking foward to change from KF yet cling to Fran. One is your GOAT, the other is almost impossibly mediocre.

If I was AD I’d have hung onto KF all these years but I’d by thrilled to swap out Fran’s body of work for the randomness of what 4-5 other coaches may have done in that full generation of Iowa bball.

It’s not like Fran isn’t equally old too. Just wildly less accomplished at his job than KF.

Me too.

 

[1TwistedCyclone]

I’m continually fascinated why Iowa fans are looking foward to change from KF yet cling to Fran. One is your GOAT, the other is almost impossibly mediocre.

If I was AD I’d have hung onto KF all these years but I’d by thrilled to swap out Fran’s body of work for the randomness of what 4-5 other coaches may have done in that full generation of Iowa bball.

It’s not like Fran isn’t equally old too. Just wildly less accomplished at his job than KF.

Licklighter's ghost still haunts Carver. Hawks are frightened easily, and feel safe with Fran. I do feel like with all of his sons off the roster, they stand an outside chance of improving, ever so slightly.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

Me too.

Btw do Iowa fans expect a lot from the basketball team? I get the football thing because fans have grown accustom to a certain win total and so I get wanting to maintain that but is basketball similar in expectations?

 

[Gonzo]

Btw do Iowa fans expect a lot from the basketball team? I get the football thing because fans have grown accustom to a certain win total and so I get wanting to maintain that but is basketball similar in expectations?

We'll definitely take a sizable step back with CC gone but I think Lucy is going to step in and be an immediate leader, having a true C in Ava Heiden will be nice since it'll move Hannah back to her true position as a PF, and Taylor M. is an Ace from 3 pt range. I'm guessing JJ will coach them to a top-25 finish and a tourney birth but don't expect any kind of big run in March.

 

[ClubCy]

We'll definitely take a sizable step back with CC gone but I think Lucy is going to step in and be an immediate leader, having a true C in Ava Heiden will be nice since it'll move Hannah back to her true position as a PF, and Taylor M. is an Ace from 3 pt range. I'm guessing JJ will coach them to a top-25 finish and a tourney birth but don't expect any kind of big run in March.

I see what you did there.

 

[CyCrazy]

Btw do Iowa fans expect a lot from the basketball team? I get the football thing because fans have grown accustom to a certain win total and so I get wanting to maintain that but is basketball similar in expectations?

Fran has never made a Sweet 16 in is entire career. Not much else to say.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

We'll definitely take a sizable step back with CC gone but I think Lucy is going to step in and be an immediate leader, having a true C in Ava Heiden will be nice since it'll move Hannah back to her true position as a PF, and Taylor M. is an Ace from 3 pt range. I'm guessing JJ will coach them to a top-25 finish and a tourney birth but don't expect any kind of big run in March.

This was an incredible pivot and I would give you a dozen likes if I could