Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[WhoISthis]

Is it the SEC and Big 10 passing on them or is it Fox and ESPN directing it?

Once schools are free of the ACC is when we’ll find out if any entity is actually passing.

As long as FSU and Clemson have the Big 12 as a fallback, they can continue forcing their way out of ACC, thereby making ESPN declining ACC option inevitable.

My guess is ESPN would be fine getting top of ACC moved to SEC once an ACC settlement occurs, or in Big 12, while getting leftover of ACC on a cheaper new deal

 

[1SEIACLONE]

Is it the SEC and Big 10 passing on them or is it Fox and ESPN directing it?

If we have learned anything, we know that ESPN and FOX will have a large say in this. If the B10 is passing on Clemson and FSU because they are not AAU members that would say they prefer UNC and UVA which makes sense from a geographic sense and reunites them with Maryland.
If those two go to the B10, I just cannot see the SEC saying we are passing on Clemson and FSU and letting them fall to the B12. They both have too much value to the SEC to let that them walk, even if they already have schools in both states.

 

[Kinch]

Once schools are free of the ACC is when we’ll find out if any entity is actually passing.

As long as FSU and Clemson have the Big 12 as a fallback, they can continue to forcing their way out of ACC, thereby making ESPN declining ACC option inevitable.

My guess is ESPN would be fine getting FSU and Clemson in SEC once settlement occurs, or in Big 12, while getting balance of ACC on a cheaper new deal

Could be, but my guess is since ESPN is starting to hit a money crunch, if it is to their advantage to have Clemson and FSU in the Big 12, then they will be in the Big 12. I doubt that happens, but things have changed a lot for ESPN in the past three years.

 

[Kinch]

If FSU and Clemson fall around the medium for TV audience in the SEC, then they don’t move the needle for value they add to the SEC. And I wonder if ESPN has told the SEC that they might dilute the media money pool for distribution, based on hypothetical matchups. I could be wrong, but that’s how I see it.

 

[WhoISthis]

Could be, but my guess is since ESPN is starting to hit a money crunch, if it is to their advantage to have Clemson and FSU in the Big 12, then they will be in the Big 12. I doubt that happens, but things have changed a lot for ESPN in the past three years.

Not really a money crunch issue when they can move FSU/Clemson to SEC while canceling ACC option, dropping several other ACC programs to American rate, and a few more to ESPN’s Big 12 rate of $20 million/year.

Spend more on FSU and Clemson (while also making more off them), cut costs on other 15.

If ESPN only loses a Miami type to BIG in canceling ACC deal, it’s an easy decision.

 

[HouClone]

FSU and Clemson aren't joining the Big 12. It's not worth any energy speculating on it.

 

[Ace000087]

FSU and Clemson aren't joining the Big 12. It's not worth any energy speculating on it.

They will go to the SEC.. leaving the ACC with 16 along with the Big12. SEC and B1G with 18.

 

[Kinch]

Not really a money crunch issue when they can move FSU/Clemson to SEC while canceling ACC option, dropping several other ACC programs to American rate, and a few more to ESPN’s Big 12 rate of $20 million/year.

Spend more on FSU and Clemson (while also making more off them), cut costs on other 15.

If ESPN only loses a Miami type to BIG in canceling ACC deal, it’s an easy decision.

But if they can make even more money by pushing them to the big 12, Disney will do that.

ESPN used to be Disney’s cash cow. Now, its revenue is declining, and Bob Iger is looking to sell a stake

The sports network depends on cable TV for revenue. But cable is on the decline since the rise of streaming.

finance.yahoo.com

 

[cykadelic2]

Could be, but my guess is since ESPN is starting to hit a money crunch, if it is to their advantage to have Clemson and FSU in the Big 12, then they will be in the Big 12. I doubt that happens, but things have changed a lot for ESPN in the past three years.

ESPN won't pay extra to the SEC for a 9th conference game according to Sankey who does want the 9th game. I highly question ESPN adding in-footprint schools like FSU and Clemson is that's the case.

And if the B10 won't waive AAU requirements for FSU and Clemson, then where do they go? B12 is only place if PE and a 3rd TV partner gets engaged. I would suggest not completely ruling that out.

 

[HouClone]

Watch magically the AAU, heavily led by Big 10, accepts FSU and Clemson, like the AAU did with possible Big 10 expansion targets Notre Dame and Miami last year.

 

[CascadeClone]

ESPN won't pay extra to the SEC for a 9th conference game according to Sankey who does want the 9th game. I highly question ESPN adding in-footprint schools like FSU and Clemson is that's the case.

And if the B10 won't waive AAU requirements for FSU and Clemson, then where do they go? B12 is only place if PE and a 3rd TV partner gets engaged. I would suggest not completely ruling that out.

"Plausible deniability" for both parties.

Keeping the SEC pumped up with a game vs a G5 helps the SEC image for CFP spots, AND helps ESPN protect the image of their showcase product.

Why on earth would either want to play a 9th game? But SEC can blame ESPN and ESPN can blame money woes. It's like when your wife doesn't want to go to her friends destination wedding, but blames you because you don't want to spend that much.

 

[cykadelic2]

If want to get to the nitty gritty of it. Big 10 landed the biggest blows and Big 12 came in with the kill shot.

Fox and the USC cronies who work for them killed the PAC.

 

[cykadelic2]

"Plausible deniability" for both parties.

Keeping the SEC pumped up with a game vs a G5 helps the SEC image for CFP spots, AND helps ESPN protect the image of their showcase product.

That worked in a 4 team CFP. It will hurt some SEC at large candidates in a 12 team CFP.

 

[ClubCy]

Fox and the USC cronies who work for them killed the PAC.

As I said in the op, who cares at this point.

 

[HouClone]

That worked in a 4 team CFP. It will hurt some SEC at large candidates in a 12 team CFP.

I don't think it will. "Toughest conference in America" ESPN, Finebaum, Sankey, and the rest of the media will spout off lobbying for 5-6 teams. I rarely if ever remember the 8 game conference schedule being used against the SEC, as it should have, in the 4 team CFP. It won't then and it won't now. Hell, SEC fan boy Herbstreit had 2 loss Georgia ahead of 1 loss Ohio State 2-3 years ago. Georgia may have had 3 losses if they played a 9 game schedule. It was never discussed.

 

[Cyclonsin]

I don't think it will. "Toughest conference in America" ESPN, Finebaum, Sankey, and the rest of the media will spout off lobbying for 5-6 teams. I rarely if ever remember the 8 game conference schedule being used against the SEC, as it should have, in the 4 team CFP. It won't then and it won't now. Hell, SEC fan boy Herbstreit had 2 loss Georgia ahead of 1 loss Ohio State 2-3 years ago. Georgia may have had 3 losses if they played a 9 game schedule. It was never discussed.

Herby is a B1G guy, but his willingness to push whatever narrative ESPN tells him to push outweighs his tOSU fandom.

But that just further reinforces your point, which I agree with. The SEC will have no problem getting every 2-loss (and probably most 3-loss) team into the CFP.

 

[1SEIACLONE]

The B10 will attempt to slow play Clemson and FSU if they really want them just like they did with Oregon and Washington, getting them to take a below market deal that has a buy in period. There was no buy in period for USC and UCLA.
Both the B10 and SEC will do what is best for their conference and the only hope that the B12 has is to pick up the schools that are left over. It does make sense for ESPN to get rid of the ACC and then only have to worry about the SEC and B12.

 

[cykadelic2]

I don't think it will. "Toughest conference in America" ESPN, Finebaum, Sankey, and the rest of the media will spout off lobbying for 5-6 teams. I rarely if ever remember the 8 game conference schedule being used against the SEC, as it should have, in the 4 team CFP. It won't then and it won't now. Hell, SEC fan boy Herbstreit had 2 loss Georgia ahead of 1 loss Ohio State 2-3 years ago. Georgia may have had 3 losses if they played a 9 game schedule. It was never discussed.

If the CFP Committee members are lemmings like you appear to be relative to talking head opinions from ESPN and their favored conference, then maybe the 8 game conference slate won't matter. But there is no question that 8 game slate will have a negative impact on an SEC team's SOS and power rating if the 4th non con game is a G5 or FCS opponent. And SOS and power ratings will be and should be more relevant with CFP expansion and at large team selection.

 

[Cyclonsin]

If the CFP Committee are lemmings like you appear to be relative to talking head opinions from ESPN and their favored conference, then maybe the 8 game conference slate won't matter. But there is no question that 8 game slate will have a negative impact on an SEC team's SOS and power rating if the 4th non con game is a G5 or FCS opponent. And SOS and power ratings will be and should be more relevant with CFP expansion and at large team selection.

Boy, I wish I had your optimism/naivety.

 

[1SEIACLONE]

If the CFP Committee members are lemmings like you appear to be relative to talking head opinions from ESPN and their favored conference, then maybe the 8 game conference slate won't matter. But there is no question that 8 game slate will have a negative impact on an SEC team's SOS and power rating if the 4th non con game is a G5 or FCS opponent. And SOS and power ratings will be and should be more relevant with CFP expansion and at large team selection.

None of that will matter with the committee, the one thing we have learned after 10 years of the playoffs is that they are going to make up new rules or do whatever it takes to get make sure that schools like Alabama and Ohio State get in. I give you the never heard of before or since 13th data point used against TCU as an example.