Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

Nolaeer

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VT has a great fanbase, the state of Virginia, and as strong a presence in DC as the Terps.

Their viewership is down bc, like WVU, they've been historically bad the past 3-4 years.

VT will rise again. They also would add a great rivalry game with WVU to the conference--The Black Diamond Trophy.
 

RustShack

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He has to be more plugged in than the rest of us. What if the “we have to prepare ourselves mentally for that” is him trying to say Nebraska isn’t part of the final plan of one college football conference? Lotta truck stops in Nebraska….
There isn’t going to be one college football conference lol. No one’s footing the bill for that to happen. It would just destroy most of their inventory for slots they need to fill on top of that.
 
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Cmonwhatarewedoinghereman

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There isn’t going to be one college football conference lol. No one’s footing the bill for that to happen. It would just destroy most of their inventory for slots they need to fill on top of that.
I agree but why does Nebraska have to prepare for something? They’re already in with the cool kids.
 

RustShack

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I agree but why does Nebraska have to prepare for something? They’re already in with the cool kids.
I don’t think that’s how he meant it. But the next round will likely involve the ACC getting picked apart obviously, and by then there could be a few more Big12 schools worth grabbing too unless the Big12 finds a way to close the gap and maybe even steal a few ACC schools that currently doesn’t seem like an option. Full blown P2 is more likely than P1. Right now it’s a P4 pointing to a P3, or P2&1/2.
 

cyIclSoneU

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I think people are really overrating these acc schools. After the big ten and sec are done there is very very little value there. Maybe 2, but not much more.

It depends on how many they take, but I think I disagree.

Think the SEC will get over doubling down in states when they realize the B1G is going to take those schools otherwise. The SEC will add Florida State and Clemson; the B1G will end up with UVA, UNC, Miami, and Notre Dame. I think the SEC also takes Virginia Tech and NC State in that scenario; maybe not, but they don't want to get shut out of large southern states.

The Big 12 will be in a position to grab Pitt, Louisville, Duke, plus one of Syracuse or Georgia Tech, and I think also Cal and Stanford. The left-out of Cuse/GT plus Boston College and Wake Forest will get demoted like Oregon State and Wazzu. Or maybe they both get in, plus one more (UConn? San Diego State?).

Cuse has a big fanbase and basketball success; Ga Tech has academic pedigree and an amazing market. And Cal and Stanford would already be in the ACC if not for the schools going to the B1G/SEC anyway.

This would be a 20-team SEC, a 22-team Big Ten, and either a 22- or 24-team Big 12. Which is awful, but that's the way we are heading.
 

Cmonwhatarewedoinghereman

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I don’t think that’s how he meant it. But the next round will likely involve the ACC getting picked apart obviously, and by then there could be a few more Big12 schools worth grabbing too unless the Big12 finds a way to close the gap and maybe even steal a few ACC schools that currently doesn’t seem like an option. Full blown P2 is more likely than P1. Right now it’s a P4 pointing to a P3, or P2&1/2.
You are spot on about that. But he is telling the fan base something bad is going to happen. If Nebraska isn’t part of some super conference then they are gonna be apart of the have-nots that are on the short end of revenue sharing with the big boys
 

MountainManHawk

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I agree but why does Nebraska have to prepare for something? They’re already in with the cool kids.
If you read all of his comments, one of the main things he said is that football will break away from the other sports. I don’t know if it will but its easy to see it makes no sense completely upending all of the Olympic sports travel schedules just to create more interesting football matchups. Here is his full quote:

“We’re moving to a 35-to-40 top brands being part of something. If you just look at football in isolation, eventually conferences will matter less in a sense. If we can find a way to take football and have that be this entity here, I think then you can get back to doing some much more intelligent thinking around the rest of the sports, which should be regionally based.

“All of these moves are driven by one sport. That’s football. And the football schedule is much different than a tennis schedule or a golf schedule. So these Olympic sports, the travel looks a little bit different. … We’re not there today, but I would think in the next 10 years, that reality makes more and more sense.”


 

isucy86

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Now that NBC is involved with the B10, do they collude with the other networks to lowball ND so they have to join a conference for cheaper? Also, will NBC and CBS, or other, be interested in some different time slots for B12 games during the next cycle? Fox and ESPN have been the only networks involved with the B12 over the years, but I could see that changing, especially if we get down to 3 leagues.
I believe NBC is paying the Big10 $350M annually for something like 15 NBC primetime, 8 Peacock and some basketball games.

Seems like paying in the ballpark of $65M-$75M for Irish home games, would be smart on NBC's part. Especially if ND games are the afternoon lead in for NBC's Saturday night Big10 games.
 

LonelyCyKC

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I believe NBC is paying the Big10 $350M annually for something like 15 NBC primetime, 8 Peacock and some basketball games.

Seems like paying in the ballpark of $65M-$75M for Irish home games, would be smart on NBC's part. Especially if ND games are the afternoon lead in for NBC's Saturday night Big10 games.
What people don't understand about ND's situation is that if the ACC goes away, they will have nobody to play at home except lower division teams and who wants to watch that.

The teams from the B1G, SEC, and Big 12 will not want to play them at Notre Dame, and probably even on a home and home schedule.

With the expansion of the three super conferences, there will be fewer non-conference games, and thus fewer games to use against other division 1 schools like ND. Some conferences may even be reduced to one or two non-con games which would need be against lower division schools to pad their wins.
 

RustShack

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What people don't understand about ND's situation is that if the ACC goes away, they will have nobody to play at home except lower division teams and who wants to watch that.

The teams from the B1G, SEC, and Big 12 will not want to play them at Notre Dame, and probably even on a home and home schedule.

With the expansion of the three super conferences, there will be fewer non-conference games, and thus fewer games to use against other division 1 schools like ND. Some conferences may even be reduced to one or two non-con games which would need be against lower division schools to pad their wins.
That’s with the assumption conferences go to ten games, we can’t even get the SEC to go to nine yet.
 

LonelyCyKC

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You are spot on about that. But he is telling the fan base something bad is going to happen. If Nebraska isn’t part of some super conference then they are gonna be apart of the have-nots that are on the short end of revenue sharing with the big boys
Nebraska's fortunes in the B1G have been bad for a team that was used to competing for conference championships in the Big 8/12. There has been rumbling in Huskerville for the last several years yearning to return to the Big 12 so they can get back in the national discussions. It is possible that they could choose to give up the $$ train and return to the Big 12 in order to get back to conference championships and to play for the college football national championship.

Nebraska's twelve year record in the Big 10 is 75-72 overall and 47-55 in the conference. Their record over the last four years is 15-29 overall and 10-25 in the conference.

Nebraska last finished a season in the top 25 in 2012, when they were 25th. (In 2020 ISU finished the season at 10th.)
 

Cloneon

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I agree with you that the money will look very different 5-10 -20 years from now. What will stay the same or even increase is the demand for athletic contests on TV regardless of how is is distributed.

I do not see a reduction of advertising demand which is the $ support for the tv contracts. What we will see is the effect of three or possibly four super conferences soaking up all of the tv broadcast slots for football, and perhaps the rise of other super basketball conferences, with their schools dropping football.

Viewership may cycle back to the traditional broadcast or satellite mode as we see the beginnings of unrest from the streamers as their costs are rising. When people total their multiple streaming sources and see that the cost is the same as cable, well, things will change again.
We're entering, what I term, a compression cycle. Streaming costs are rising, but not because of their technical costs, but rather because of their 'production' costs to obtain a pinnacle position. As mentioned previously history presents a deluge of companies in an industry before starting to whittle itself down. Amortization of the internet infrastructure is well into its principle by now, which means the cost of internet shouldn't be too much of a driving factor. But, the cost of product over it is what's in the gladiator arena now. Athletics, are probably the simplest forms of production; meaning it should be the easiest to financially model. Hence the era of heavy repositioning by the media (ie product) companies. NEXT big watch is what AI does to entertainment production costs. My humble opinion is it will significantly lower costs of production in other areas, severely putting a strain on future athletic contracts. Though that's not likely to happen in my lifetime; it surely is in many of yours. Just my experienced opinion.
 
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Cloneon

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You are spot on about that. But he is telling the fan base something bad is going to happen. If Nebraska isn’t part of some super conference then they are gonna be apart of the have-nots that are on the short end of revenue sharing with the big boys
This may not be as far fetched as people seem to realize. The vast majority of our population resides in urban areas. The growing focus for so long was casting a net over the area via OTA. Hence no secret of how professional sports locates its teams. Common sense, right? So, if 'rural' Ames (and a whole heck of a lot of other universities) is to sustain a long term product, it has to market itself as a 'favorite' team outside and separate from its location. No one seems to wonder why the Dallas Cowboys is tabbed 'America's' team. Somehow, they managed to market themselves outside of Dallas. I'm a traditionalist and have hence suffered with the Bears, but so many people are bandwagon fans. It's those fans BY, imo, wants to grow. And it's the only horse ISU can hitch its wagon to.
 
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JUKEBOX

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Nebraska's fortunes in the B1G have been bad for a team that was used to competing for conference championships in the Big 8/12. There has been rumbling in Huskerville for the last several years yearning to return to the Big 12 so they can get back in the national discussions. It is possible that they could choose to give up the $$ train and return to the Big 12 in order to get back to conference championships and to play for the college football national championship.

Nebraska's twelve year record in the Big 10 is 75-72 overall and 47-55 in the conference. Their record over the last four years is 15-29 overall and 10-25 in the conference.

Nebraska last finished a season in the top 25 in 2012, when they were 25th. (In 2020 ISU finished the season at 10th.)
Nebraska won't go back to the Big 12 unless they get kicked out of the B1G or left out of a "super-league" (if such a thing were to materialize).

Their decline started after the Big 8 due to changes in the college football and television landscape, formation of the Big 12 (+ rule changes), and their own general mismanagement.

With a good coach, AD, and NIL structure, they could probably become a Wisconsin-like program in the B1G imo. However, it is amusing to see them be bad lol.
 

Matthew-10

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NEXT big watch is what AI does to entertainment production costs. My humble opinion is it will significantly lower costs of production in other areas

I think this is the key to our confrence moving forward. Tradition won’t get us over the line, so innovation is our best bet. BY is already there and I believe we are progressing.
 
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