Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[isucy86]

Good luck with that.

Conferences that need a 75% vote in order to get any serious business done aren't going to suddenly start casting some schools aside on the whim of 2-3 schools.

Until they don't.

Like I said, I think the employee-status issue is more likely the driver to lower revenue potential schools leaving a conference.

But conference stability these days is only as strong as their media deal and the GOR timeframe.

In 2031 when the Big10 TV deal is up, what is going to keep Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State in the Big10. It's not a 75% voting rule. It's $. Because when the TV contract and/or GOR expires the schools are free agents. We saw that with USC and UCLA.

 

[SCNCY]

In 2010, at the beginning of the Big 12 missile crisis, there were rumors that there was a group of 6 teams (CU, OU, OSU, UT, TAMU, and TTU) that were minutes away from going to the Pac 10. This was confirmed by OU's Joe Castiglione a few years later.

If we build a hypothetical where that move happened, how would the landscape be different? The PAC is now at 16 teams, and Utah never gets it's call up.

View attachment 113336

The remaining 6 Big 12 teams would all be on their own to look for new homes, so let's assume Nebraska gets it's Big 10 invite, BUT Mizzou isn't immediately invited to the SEC since A&M isn't available. The Big 10 also goes ahead and adds Maryland and Rutgers to get into the NYC and DC media markets. So the Big 10 is the same as it is currently, while the SEC is still at their pre-2010 membership.

The ACC is at 11 teams with Maryland out, so they raid the Big East, adding Pitt, Syracuse, and West Virginia, while ND joins as a non-FB member. The ACC holds at 14 in hopes that ND will join as a full member.

View attachment 113337

This leaves us with the remnants of the Big 12 and Big East. The remaining 5 Big 12 schools join up with Louisville, Cinci, and USF from the Big East. Along with that they invite UCF, Houston, TCU, SMU, Utah, and BYU.

View attachment 113338

This would have been a better case scenario. If the SEC or Big 10 has decided to invite KU and Mizzou, that would have left ISU, KSU, and Baylor on the outside looking in. With the way things turned out in reality, the Cyclones have benefitted immensely and aren't likely to be on the outside.

I think the the 6 teams left for the PAC, then the remainders would have been added to the Big east, thus, I do t think those big east schools leave for the ACC.

 

[BooneCy]

Define "we"

I’m an optimist by nature.

 

[AuH2O]

Good luck with that.

Conferences that need a 75% vote in order to get any serious business done aren't going to suddenly start casting some schools aside on the whim of 2-3 schools.

It isn’t that conferences are going to figure out a way to vote them out of conferences. It’s that you’d have the top number of each league it takes to dissolve each league get together, dissolve the conferences and start over but cut the dead weight.

 

[Gonzo]

It isn’t that conferences are going to figure out a way to vote them out of conferences. It’s that you’d have the top number of each league it takes to dissolve each league get together, dissolve the conferences and start over but cut the dead weight.

But after the elites cut the dead weight and start a new conference, some of those elites will inevitably become the new dead weight. They can't all win all the games. This is why the concept of the Superconference with only the biggest and best programs from all the different conferences seems nonsensical to me. There are as many losses to go around in conference play as wins. Eventually in a Superconference there would be a top half and a bottom half. Then those once elite programs now on the bottom half are no longer elite, are dead weight, and the top half would again be motivated to cut them loose and not equally share the riches.

 

[Cloneon]

But after the elites cut the dead weight and start a new conference, some of those elites will inevitably become the new dead weight. They can't all win all the games. This is why the concept of the Superconference with only the biggest and best programs from all the different conferences seems nonsensical to me. There are as many losses to go around in conference play as wins. Eventually in a Superconference there would be a top half and a bottom half. Then those once elite programs now on the bottom half are no longer elite, are dead weight, and the top half would again be motivated to cut them loose and not equally share the riches.

100% correct, except sadly, those pocketing the revenues will be rich and retired by the next time countless people are negatively impacted again.

 

[CascadeClone]

Good luck with that.

Conferences that need a 75% vote in order to get any serious business done aren't going to suddenly start casting some schools aside on the whim of 2-3 schools.

"As President of Ohio State, I am pleased to announce our football team will begin competing in the ESPN AllState Insurance Champions League next season. Unfortunately, they will not be able to compete in the Big 10 anymore. "

Fill in Bama or USC or whoever you want. You dont have to throw schools out, and you dont have to leave entirely yourself. You just move your football team to a different league. And if you concentrate enough "future champions" into a conference, you wont even have the risk of being voted out entirely- if the left behinds would even do that in the first place.

If it happens thats how it will happen. And/or they will cancel football but license out the logo and name rights to a 3rd party to run the football team. Who could then have employees and pay players and a union et al.

 

[BigJCy]

 

[AuH2O]

But after the elites cut the dead weight and start a new conference, some of those elites will inevitably become the new dead weight. They can't all win all the games. This is why the concept of the Superconference with only the biggest and best programs from all the different conferences seems nonsensical to me. There are as many losses to go around in conference play as wins. Eventually in a Superconference there would be a top half and a bottom half. Then those once elite programs now on the bottom half are no longer elite, are dead weight, and the top half would again be motivated to cut them loose and not equally share the riches.

I hear you, but I’m not sure people running the show look that far ahead. Plus they correctly understand that while what you’re saying is true, 3-6 Texas is going to get a lot more viewers than 3-6 Indiana.

 

[MugNight]

In 2010, at the beginning of the Big 12 missile crisis, there were rumors that there was a group of 6 teams (CU, OU, OSU, UT, TAMU, and TTU) that were minutes away from going to the Pac 10. This was confirmed by OU's Joe Castiglione a few years later.

If we build a hypothetical where that move happened, how would the landscape be different? The PAC is now at 16 teams, and Utah never gets it's call up.

View attachment 113336

The remaining 6 Big 12 teams would all be on their own to look for new homes, so let's assume Nebraska gets it's Big 10 invite, BUT Mizzou isn't immediately invited to the SEC since A&M isn't available. The Big 10 also goes ahead and adds Maryland and Rutgers to get into the NYC and DC media markets. So the Big 10 is the same as it is currently, while the SEC is still at their pre-2010 membership.

The ACC is at 11 teams with Maryland out, so they raid the Big East, adding Pitt, Syracuse, and West Virginia, while ND joins as a non-FB member. The ACC holds at 14 in hopes that ND will join as a full member.

View attachment 113337

This leaves us with the remnants of the Big 12 and Big East. The remaining 5 Big 12 schools join up with Louisville, Cinci, and USF from the Big East. Along with that they invite UCF, Houston, TCU, SMU, Utah, and BYU.

View attachment 113338

This would have been a better case scenario. If the SEC or Big 10 has decided to invite KU and Mizzou, that would have left ISU, KSU, and Baylor on the outside looking in. With the way things turned out in reality, the Cyclones have benefitted immensely and aren't likely to be on the outside.

Great analysis. Back in 2011, I was chatting with a local media member who had recently interviewed Paul Rhoads. This person told me that Paul said he thought we’d be in the Big East in 3 +/- years

 

[Gunnerclone]

Until they don't.

Like I said, I think the employee-status issue is more likely the driver to lower revenue potential schools leaving a conference.

But conference stability these days is only as strong as their media deal and the GOR timeframe.

In 2031 when the Big10 TV deal is up, what is going to keep Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State in the Big10. It's not a 75% voting rule. It's $. Because when the TV contract and/or GOR expires the schools are free agents. We saw that with USC and UCLA.

I’m always amazed how in this country that people still think “rules” and “norms” and “agreements” mean anything. Even “laws” are having problems in this country right now. You’re exactly right. Everything is until it isn’t.

Basically if some one or some entity wants something bad enough, and can meet the necessary dollar requirements, then it can happen. Will it happen? Not always, but could it? Absolutely.

 

[2speedy1]

To me the whole "basketball only" adds is just not at the right time. (which I havent seen if it is all sports except FB, or BB only)

We just got a TV Deal, and it does not have a provision for adding BB only. How do we split the pot in the current deal with a BB only school? I would think adding BB schools would be more of a possibility as the next contract gets closer, when BY expects to renegotiate BB separately. But right now it is all combined and just means those schools dont appear to add enough revenue in the current system.


In 5-6 years maybe, as we look to add and get established a BB only group before renegotiation.

Then Schools like Gonzaga, UConn, Nova, Creighton, St. Marys, Wichita St, Xavier etc. might be a possibility, if they can add BB value.

 

[exCyDing]

To me the whole "basketball only" adds is just not at the right time. (which I havent seen if it is all sports except FB, or BB only)

We just got a TV Deal, and it does not have a provision for adding BB only. How do we split the pot in the current deal with a BB only school? I would think adding BB schools would be more of a possibility as the next contract gets closer, when BY expects to renegotiate BB separately. But right now it is all combined and just means those schools dont appear to add enough revenue in the current system.


In 5-6 years maybe, as we look to add and get established a BB only group before renegotiation.

Then Schools like Gonzaga, UConn, Nova, Creighton, St. Marys, Wichita St, Xavier etc. might be a possibility, if they can add BB value.

I agree, now seems like a weird time to make any BB-only additions. It makes perfect sense to start having discussions now for the next deal. No one has split BB and football, so it’s going to take some work to get everyone on the same page and figure out how to best position the B12 and various schools.

 

[Gunnerclone]

I agree, now seems like a weird time to make any BB-only additions. It makes perfect sense to start having discussions now for the next deal. No one has split BB and football, so it’s going to take some work to get everyone on the same page and figure out how to best position the B12 and various schools.

Basketball is growing and not just in the US. It also has a lot of room to grow. Football viewing is growing, but there’s not as much left to squeeze out of it. Makes sense to lay a framework now.

 

[STLISU]

Agree, I just meant geography can be nice but it isn’t king. The old big eight is kind of laughably convenient compared to where most conferences are heading.

I spent time driving around Washington the past few years, it takes forever to drive anywhere because there isn’t a straight road to be found, eastern Washington is really isolated. I doubt people in Pullman have ever road tripped much to Pac rivals. Looking at the map they’d at least have more quick road trips for locals/students.

ISU undergrad (B.S.). Lived in the Moscow/Pullman area in early/mid 80's. Graduate degree from U. of Idaho. Gorgeous country. Isolated for sure. But unlike commuter schools, WSU students live on campus (dorms/fraternities). As a result, WSU alumni have a passion for their school. Which is reflected in the higher-than-expected TV ratings for their games.

As other's have said, what made college football special and differentiates the sport from the NFL are schools like Washington State. I hate to see them discarded.

 

[BCClone]

I agree, now seems like a weird time to make any BB-only additions. It makes perfect sense to start having discussions now for the next deal. No one has split BB and football, so it’s going to take some work to get everyone on the same page and figure out how to best position the B12 and various schools.

Big 10 actually did have a partial split off for basketball.

 

[RustShack]

If the Big12 does end up moving forward with a few basketball only adds(probably won’t would be my guess), it wouldn’t be to slice to pie into smaller pieces. Fox and ESPN would have to agree to pay them for a basketball share to actually move forward with it.

It could also be he is just gathering information right now, gauging what Fox and ESPN would pay say Gonzaga for basketball only for if he moves forward with negotiating football, basketball, and all other sports separately in the future.

 

[HouClone]

I agree that it doesn't feel the correct time to add basketball schools with the Pac and ACC in flux. Yormark has had free reign to do as he sees fit so far. But for this, Presidents have to jump in to say no.

Yormark is a marketing guy. Hope he doesn't get impatient and bail after a few years.

 

[HFCS]

In 2010, at the beginning of the Big 12 missile crisis, there were rumors that there was a group of 6 teams (CU, OU, OSU, UT, TAMU, and TTU) that were minutes away from going to the Pac 10. This was confirmed by OU's Joe Castiglione a few years later.

If we build a hypothetical where that move happened, how would the landscape be different? The PAC is now at 16 teams, and Utah never gets it's call up.

View attachment 113336

The remaining 6 Big 12 teams would all be on their own to look for new homes, so let's assume Nebraska gets it's Big 10 invite, BUT Mizzou isn't immediately invited to the SEC since A&M isn't available. The Big 10 also goes ahead and adds Maryland and Rutgers to get into the NYC and DC media markets. So the Big 10 is the same as it is currently, while the SEC is still at their pre-2010 membership.

The ACC is at 11 teams with Maryland out, so they raid the Big East, adding Pitt, Syracuse, and West Virginia, while ND joins as a non-FB member. The ACC holds at 14 in hopes that ND will join as a full member.

View attachment 113337

This leaves us with the remnants of the Big 12 and Big East. The remaining 5 Big 12 schools join up with Louisville, Cinci, and USF from the Big East. Along with that they invite UCF, Houston, TCU, SMU, Utah, and BYU.

View attachment 113338

This would have been a better case scenario. If the SEC or Big 10 has decided to invite KU and Mizzou, that would have left ISU, KSU, and Baylor on the outside looking in. With the way things turned out in reality, the Cyclones have benefitted immensely and aren't likely to be on the outside.

I agree these thoughts are all likely…but eventually Texas/USC go to SEC and Big Ten still. Who’s to say which go with them, at least 2-4 others from that super PAC conf.

Effectively it flipped from ISU/KSU/Baylor worst case scenario to WSU/OreSt and possibly Cal (as odd as that seems) being in worst case should Ore/WA get their ticket.

 

[HFCS]

I agree that it doesn't feel the correct time to add basketball schools with the Pac and ACC in flux. Yormark has had free reign to do as he sees fit so far. But for this, Presidents have to jump in to say no.

Yormark is a marketing guy. Hope he doesn't get impatient and bail after a few years.

There are ups and downs of a quick moving fast acting commissioner, so far it’s been all ups. If he overreaches it could bite us though.