I'm not saying they are going to do it. I'm saying they would rather do that if push came to shove than enduring concentrated efforts to end a sweetheart deal early through dissolution of the ACC.
Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)
- Thread starter ISUcyclones11
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I'm not saying they are going to do it. I'm saying they would rather do that if push came to shove than enduring concentrated efforts to end a sweetheart deal early through dissolution of the ACC.
The B10 is not going to be expanding 12 months from now, they want the ACC schools more than WAOR. So, if you are those current P12 schools, why not sign an extension for say 5 years knowing that the ACC GOR going for another 13 years? But the 4 corner schools might not be so inclined to wait around and hope for a better offer. If they are going to end up moving anyway, might as well take the money and do it now.
If it looked like FSU/Clemson/UNC had a path to get out of the ACC, why would the take anything less than what they could get in the SEC or B10?
If it looked like the schools had a way out, why would ESPN pay the whole ACC that kind of money rather than just letting them do it and pay who they want there?
Dissolution is extremely unlikely. All espn has to do is say we won’t be paying the SEC an increased rate to add the schools. Then ESPN maintains all the rights without increasing costs. They would literally be bidding against themselves to increase spending and get nothing in return. That’s horrific business
I agree, I think the B10 is probably done expanding until the early 2030s barring something happening with the ACC GOR. Just saying, the dream stays alive for WAOR until they sign a new GOR.
The rest should get out. An offer now doesn’t mean an offer later. If the best case scenario if/when WAOR goes the B10 is ending up the in the B12, and they’d be better off in the B12 until that happens, why not just go now?
Watched future B12 AZ vs B10 UCLA last night. Idiot Walton kept trashing Midwest and calling us truck stop schools. What a douche. Enjoy calling Mountain West games you fool
And Kliavkoff is ready to steal Big 12 schools with that SEC style money.
Just lurking out there ready to snag TCU.
Walton has been using the truck stop thing for a long time to talk about teams not in the PAC, it’s not new related to realignment.
Agree, the premise of Double Fries No Slaw vlog has to be desireable by ESPN and FOX.
My guess is ESPN would definitely be OK with the ACC disbanding. ESPN's current investment with the ACC is around $250M for all 14 teams plus they pay operation/production costs for the ACCN. So to redirect that $250M+ to support 4 elite ACC teams to the SEC seems totally plausable. There were 14 ACC games on ABC last fall and 16 games on ESPN/ESPN2, those are all games that could give the SEC increased visibility and allow ESPN to charge higher advertising rates.
Thought it was interesting that he didn't mention Notre Dame as part of his strategy. Notre Dame's deal with NBC runs through 2025. If Notre Dame views its future in the Big10, then that opens the door for ACC schools (vs. Pac12) as part of the Big10's preferred expansion candidates.
If FSU and Clemson can make financial sense for 8 ACC members to the Big10/SEC then dissolution of the ACC should be a given. This is where Notre Dame's valuation can help subsidize a couple ACC schools that might be under the Big10's average per school payout.
Would also think schools projected to Big12 would also support dissolution if Clemson, FSU are willing to give them a financial kicker to vote with them. This is where I think the Big12 is going to need to find a 3rd TV partner who is willing to support payments that keep the Big12's media rights deal above the $31.7M/school annually. I don't see ESPN willing to pay the Big12's prorata clause to put those games on ESPN+. Would think FOX, CBS or NBC would need to pick up a game or two and could be a good fit for a streamer like Amazon/Apple to show a top tier Big12 game.
It’s quite likely schools can have a vote to dissolve or a landing spot lined up/payoff agreement, but not both. Other GORs have this language, it would be unusual for the ACC’s not to have it.
It would likely require everyone to vote in agreement and that’s going to be tough if not everyone is going to the B10/SEC/B12.
This has been pointed out to several times, but never gets addressed in breakdowns like yours.
Sounds like nerves are starting to fray a little. https://arizonasports.com/story/3506701/asus-ray-anderson-hopes-pac-12-media-rights-deal-clarifies/
Don't understand what your saying. Could you clarify about "not both"?
It would seem that landing places would have to be identified by representatives of the ACC schools and once they have landing spots for 10-12 teams, then they would vote on dissolution.
At that point, the 6-8 schools going to Big10 & SEC should have no problem making the other 6-8 ACC teams whole. Especially if its tied to the difference between media rights payments in new conferences vs. ACC.
The Vlog mentioned the current ACC media rights deal would be above the Big12's deal around 2030, which is another incentive for ESPN to be OK with dissolution. Also, by that time, the Big12 will go out to bid again and hopefully Yormark's plan to close the gap with Big10/SEC has worked.
I cant believe there are actually people on here that like listening to that blowhard. I hate listening to him babble on, he brings nothing to a game broadcast and usually makes them much worse to listen to.
Where are they coming up with the media rights deal will be higher in the ACC than the Big 12? Are they using the estimates from before our deal was settled?
We get 32.7M per team in the B1G through the life of our contract. Then get to renegotiate again, years before the ACC.
The ACC gets 17M per team, about Half the amount, and that is locked until the mid 2030s. We will reup for more several years before the current contract is up in the ACC, paying them basically half.
The not both means once a school decides to leave/ negotiates with another conference, they lose their vote in the current conference. Just like OuT lost their voting power once they gave notice of their desire to leave.
He had a chart. I believe it showed media rights $ from media rights consulting company Navigate. It showed media rights $ for ACC vs. SEC between now and 2036. SEC teams will make $600M more than ACC schools. Similarly, he showed ACC vs. Big12 and ACC schools would make $60M more. It looked like ACC deal is back loaded, more money after 2030.
He mentioned all the data was linked to his vlog on YouTube.
BTW I think the Big12 annual amount is $31.7M for the extension.
The ACC bylaws almost certainly bar schools with a conflict of interest from voting on a matter. If a school has negotiated a landing spot or a payoff from someone to vote a certain way, that's likely a conflict of interest.
Option 1 would be to find 8 schools willing to blindly leap without a guaranteed spot. Sure, FSU, Clemson, UNC, Miami would likely find a P2 home as long as the networks are willing to put up the cash for it. Are they? We don't know for certain. The B12 would take on ~4 schools if the networks oblige, but which ones? NC State, Louisville, Pitt, Va Tech, GA Tech, Syracuse, Duke? Somebody's getting left out.
Option 2 would be to get everyone on board with dissolving. If everyone agrees to a deal, there's no one to object. Downside is 1 school could stop it cold, and I'm thinking 3-4 might be on the outside of the power conference structure forever with the move. Yes, those same schools would likely end up there in 2036, but that's a ways down a road they're in no hurry to rush down.
Still, why is everyone bending over backwards to accommodate FSU, UNC, etc? They're the only ones that really come out ahead. Everyone else will get there eventually, and for a lot less money in over the next 13 years.
If he is quoting the Navigate chart...LOL that was a year almost before we renegotiated.. When Navigate was saying our value was going to decrease not increase.
Those numbers are way off now, as we renegotiated way higher than Navigate estimated. I dont know if the vlog you are quoting is that old, or he just used really outdated data in a current vlog. This is something people like Altimore is notorious for. I didnt watch the vlog you are referencing, so dont know, but if he is using the Navigate data that was spread all over this forum last year before our renegotiation, it is pointless, because that chart was a complete guess and they guessed we would be way below our renegotiated value.
Yes I know they are 31.7, I must have mistyped and didnt notice it.
Edit: and it also was taking in total value, they were estimating everyone except the Big 12 would get a huge jump from the new playoff. For some reason they believed not only the Big12 value was way lower and our cut of the new playoff would be much lower then all the rest, including the Pac and ACC.
What is stopping the SEC or Big Ten from working with another partner for the additional inventory?
Umm the contracts? ESPN owns all of the SEC games, all of them. So what is a new parter going to bid on? The worst game of the week? ESPN owns the rest.
Yea, I looked at the revenue #'s from Navigate closer and they are all-in media rights #'s and appear dated.
However, that makes his strategy easier to pull off. ACC schools that would be Big12 options would have higher Big12 revenue than projected ACC revenue. So ACC schools going to SEC/Big10 would not have to subsidize future Big12 schools. The only subsidy would be ACC schools destined for AAC, etc.
