Are we even a tournament team?

Are we a tournament team?

  • Yes

    Votes: 111 89.5%
  • No - NIT baby!

    Votes: 13 10.5%

  • Total voters
    124

NoCreativity

Well-Known Member
Nov 12, 2015
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How many teams have finished a season going 3-14? I don't care how good your conference is or how many quad wins you have, that's not NCAA material.

I'm not naive saying they 100% won't get in but I think people assuming we will be definitely in are underestimating the weight of such a late season collapse. Ask yourself, right now are we closer to playing like the team that amassed a ton of quad 1 wins, or a team that will be lucky to win 1 game at the NCAAs? Right now there is little reason to believe we will magically start playing better. Especially when you realize it's the 2nd year in a row it's happened.
The only thing comparable is Iowa in 2014. They ended up losing 6 out of 7 and got dropped to the play-in game.

We will most likely go in losing 7 of 8. I think we still make it but will probably either be an 11 seed or sent to Dayton.
 

Cyballzz

Well-Known Member
Feb 1, 2010
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Where metrics fail is disseminating parts from the whole. If you were to judge the season based on a whole, completely disregarding when the wins came, we are in. Conversely give me a similar example when a team with as many quality wins completely imploded to finish the season. I can't think of one offhand so this is fairly I precedented. Losing the last 3 games at home, finishing 3-12 to end the year, would likely have many on the committee questioning our inclusion.

Do we have a better resume than most bubble teams? Sure. Are there any bubble teams playing their worst basketball of the year in epic fashion? I doubt it.

I can't say we are out for sure but I think the recency bias could go a long way and pushing us out. Luckily the strength of the conference in on our side, and might be the ultimate trump card.
The TCU game happened my man whether you like it or not...

North Carolina has lost 5 of its last 7.
Penn State has lost 8 of 14 but I am sure your eye test loves those wins at Minnesota and Ohio State.
Clemson has lost 4 of 6 including getting smashed at Louisville.
Also ignoring Texas Tech losing 10 of 12 renders the entire season pointless. Those games count.
New Mexico has lost 6 of 8 in the Mountain West

Non bubble?
Michigan State has lost 7 of its last 11 including that disaster today.

But yeah I get your "eye test" thinks Boise State beating absolutely no one is some how impressive.
 

dahliaclone

Well-Known Member
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Mar 4, 2007
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Going into today ISU was a consensus 4 seed

They will drop a seed (at the very most) for any remaining losses. Both Baylor and WVU will be quad one games so probably only losing half a seed for those.

Lost today: drop to 5 seed
Lose to WVU: drop to 5.5 Seed
Lose to Baylor: drop to 6 seed
Lose in Big 12 tourney: drop to 7 seed

I know people are likely just trolling when they say ISU is on the bubble, but you can't go from a 4 seed to a bubble team in 3 games. Especially when almost every game you play is quad 1.
Yup...I mentioned in some thread earlier I asked a bracket expert this week if ISU loses out what their floor would be. They said 7.
 

awd4cy

Well-Known Member
Dec 29, 2010
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Central Iowa
I think we lose out and get in, but it might be closer than many think. Experts had us as a 9 last year and ended up being an 11.
 

Cyballzz

Well-Known Member
Feb 1, 2010
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I'm not saying you are wrong, but cite those examples? Who lost 7 games in a row to end the regular season and made it? How many teams have ended 3-12? Admittedly conference strength will be in our favor but this is a rare case of (potential) overwhelming recency bias.

I'm someone who didn't think we would lose to OU today. Just that win would have been enough. But losing 3, potentially 4 home games to the bottom half of the conference and being on a nose dive is bad optically.

We can't lose 7 in a row to end the regular season.
 

StLouisClone

Well-Known Member
Apr 16, 2006
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Looks like 2001 Georgia had the worst record at 16-14 of any team to get an at-large bid. They got an 8 seed. 2017 Vanderbilt went 19-15 and got a 9 seed.

The 1992 Iowa State team still holds the record for having the worst conference record at 5-9 to receive an at large bid.

Teams seeded 8-12 are often interchangeable and sometimes are moved up or down to avoid a rematch. I can see this ISU team ending up with anywhere from a 6-12 seed depending on whether they pick up some more wins or not.
 
Last edited:

Cyballzz

Well-Known Member
Feb 1, 2010
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Looks like 2001 Georgia had the worst record at 16-14 of any team to get an at-large bid. They got an 8 seed. 2017 Vanderbilt went 19-15 and got a 9 seed.

The 1992 Iowa State team still holds the record for having the worst conference record at 5-9 to receive an at large bid.

Teams seeded 8-12 are often interchangeable and sometimes are moved up or down to avoid a rematch. I can see this ISU ending up with anywhere from a 6-12 seed depending on whether they pick up some more wins or not.

And that team won a game in the NCAA's that year!
 

exCYtement

Active Member
Feb 28, 2011
272
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Ames
The only thing comparable is Iowa in 2014. They ended up losing 6 out of 7 and got dropped to the play-in game.

We will most likely go in losing 7 of 8. I think we still make it but will probably either be an 11 seed or sent to Dayton.
The main difference being the overall resume.

So far this ISU team has 7 top 25 wins, and Iowa had 2 top 25 wins that season. Not to mention Iowa had worse losses.
 
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ZRF

Well-Known Member
Jan 3, 2015
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Alot of flaws here... Most glaring is claiming we're a "bubble team" and think that's what we should be compared against.

The committee DOES NOT consider late vs early. They've said that many times.

You say metrics fail on part vs whole
.. Which is why they rely on the whole, and not part. They rely (I woyld argue too much) on metrics.

Another way to look at it: we lose out here still 7th in conference. Even the most doggish bracketology has 7 on from b12. Usually it's 8.

You keep saying they don't. I'm not arguing that. I just think you are being naive that a 17-14 team, finishing 3-12, and on a 7 game game losing streak would be "in" because of the Quad 1 wins and strength of schedule. I think there would be talks of "how good is Iowa State right now?" and there would be some dissent in the room.

I did some digging and the the last time a team was selected with a long losing streak, and a similar collapse, was Villanova in 2010-11. That team started 15-1, ended 21-11, and lost their last 5 games entering the tourney. Four were to ranked teams and the last was a 1 point loss at the beginning of the Big East tourney. For reference, the Big East was a pretty strong conference that year and Nova was awarded a 9 seed.

Potentially Iowa State could go in losing it's last 6, ending the year 3-12, and having an "ugly" record of 17-14. That Nova team finished the year 6-10 over their last 16 games where we could be 3-12 over our last 15. I can't speak for what the committee will do, but I think it's pretty dismissive to think such a streak possibly puts us in trouble.

Preferably this team doesn't put itself in that position.
 
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ZRF

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Jan 3, 2015
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We can't lose 7 in a row to end the regular season.

You are right. I miscounted, it would be 6 if we were to lose the first game in the tournament. The only other team I could find on such a streak, that made the tournament, was the 2010-11 Nova team that lost 5 in a row (4 to ranked teams) to end the season. They were a 9 seed for reference.
 

dahliaclone

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You keep saying they don't. I'm not arguing that. I just think you are being naive that a 17-14 team, finishing 3-12, and on a 7 game game losing streak would be "in" because of the Quad 1 wins and strength of schedule. I think there would be talks of "how good is Iowa State right now?" and there would be some dissent in the room.

I did some digging and the the last time a team was selected with a long losing streak, and a similar collapse, was Villanova in 2010-11. That team started 15-1, ended 21-11, and lost their last 5 games entering the tourney. Four were to ranked teams and the last was a 1 point loss at the beginning of the Big East tourney. For reference, the Big East was a pretty strong conference that year and Nova was awarded a 9 seed.

Potentially Iowa State could go in losing it's last 6, ending the year 3-12, and having an "ugly" record of 17-14. That Nova team finished the year 6-10 over their last 16 games where we could be 3-12 over our last 15. I can't speak for what the committee will do, but I think it's pretty dismissive to think such a streak possibly puts us in trouble.

Preferably this team doesn't put itself in that position.
So again...you are blatantly saying you think a losing streak at the end of the season means more than anything else that happened in the year...which is just laughably not true in any sense.
 

StLouisClone

Well-Known Member
Apr 16, 2006
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By my count, there have been 12 teams with 14 losses and only 1 team with 15 losses who have received an at large bid. That's going back around 50 years. So it happens only once every 4 years or so.

I hope some of you are right that Iowa State is a lock. If we lose out and make it with 14 losses, we will be doing something that doesn't happen too often.
 

mynameisjonas

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Jan 19, 2019
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By my count, there have been 12 teams with 14 losses and only 1 team with 15 losses who have received an at large bid. That's going back around 50 years. So it happens only once every 4 years or so.

I hope some of you are right that Iowa State is a lock. If we lose out and make it with 14 losses, we will be doing something that doesn't happen too often.
The only reason people are saying we are a lock is because those people are believing the ESPN hype. If we lose out, everyone will be nervous on selection Sunday.
 

fsanford

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Dec 22, 2007
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Last year this thing predicted a 10 seed for ISU ended up being an 11.

Some of the brackets have already been update after today's loss and ISU sits at a 4

This is my reasoning for not worried about making the dance or dropping below 6.

Somebody give me a reason why we fall into a seeding below 7 or not making the dance.

Facts not emotion. Other teams are losing too ISU is not in some bubble not impacted by other teams results
 
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thisISnextyear

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Aug 29, 2007
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When is the deadline for ordering tickets for the first round of the NIT? We should play at home right?
When is the deadline for ordering tickets for the first round of the NIT? We should play at home right?
3 of you have marked this as dumb so I have to ask which part of it was dumb
- missing the email with the deadline to order already?
- thinking this team will even get a home game in the NIT?
- adding a little humor/sarcasm in a 300 post thread on whether or not this team will make the tournament
 

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