Exceeding expectations at Nebraska is winning national titles.
It's always the strawman case at Nebraska. They think they are reasonable because they say they don't expect to be a dynasty, just compete occasionally for the playoff and national titles. Not that those things can't happen, but all the programmatic things that assisted them in being a dynasty 25 years ago are gone. Those advantages don't exist anymore.
It's sort of like Iowa fans when they get disgruntled with Kirk. They think they are a top 15 "program" because that's what their wins are or whatever, and translate that as this is one of the 15 best jobs in the country. No it isn't. Not even close. The nature of college football has been for a LONG time that it's like 90% if you have a good coach that is stable. The other 10% - recruiting base, facilities, tradition, etc. don't favor Iowa all that much. Basically they are a good program now because they have a flukish 4 decade run with two really good coaches willing to stick around. There is little to nothing "programmatic" that is special at Iowa or Nebraska for that matter.
Iowa may learn what Nebraska is finding out. Nebraska didn't make Pelini win, he made Nebraska win. Fry and Ferentz didn't have success 'cuz Hoks. Iowa had success because of Fry and Ferentz.
Basically these Big 10 programs have big checkbooks to hire and be impatient with coaches. That's great, but now that makes them one of 32 teams or so that can do that. You still have to pick the right guy that works with your program, is in the right station of their career, etc.
Their super slim chance at competing for national titles is that they get as close as Iowa and Kansas State have been in the past 20 years.
That is a handful of seasons in top ten or even top five, but not really a realistic chance at NC in that period.
These are the best finishes by teams that aren't located in a footprint where they can win just dominating with local talent or they were in such a minor conference/historical stature team that they finished with great season despite some significant disadvantages like Nebraska's remote location:
2020 - 10th Iowa State
2015 - 9th Iowa
2014 - 11th Kansas State
2012 - 12th Kansas State
2011 - 8th Boise State
2010 - 9th Boise State, 11th Nevada
2009 - 7th Iowa
2008 - 2nd Utah, 11th Boise St (Utah had disadvantages in MWC back then when Urban revolutionized game but now they are a light years better program in terms of upside vs Nebraska)
2007 - #7 Kansas
2006 - #4 Boise State, #5 Louisville, #10 WVU
2005 - #5 WVU
2004 - #4 Utah, #8 Iowa
2003 - #8 Iowa, #9 Wash St, #10 Miami Oh
2002 - #3 Iowa, #6 Kansas St, #7 Wash St
That's 20 years. The ONLY teams in that entire list that had a legit NC claim and were dangerous enough to win a 4, 8 or 12 team playoff were the Utah teams that went undefeated blowing everybody out because they had a revolutionary offense and coach who would go on to dominate at major conferences. If you look at the records of any of the rest of them they are very clearly a long ways from an NC whether that is playing a single game or a 4/8/12 team playoff.
***Edit, VA Tech, Cincy and BYU were the three programs I couldn't decide to include in here or not. They had 5 seasons among them on the list of being top 12ish with VaTech multiple times...but again none where they had anything close to a national championship resume.
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