Cryptocurrency

[JustAnotherTimeline]

How do you manage your keys? Do you have a hardware wallet, etc? As much as I don't believe the Web3/Metaverse future will ever come to pass, I do think that at least in the medium term BTC & ETH will rebound from this. I think this may be a buying opportunity to put a little money in crypto just in case it all goes sky high again.

I am interested in figuring out the best way to buy. Before I would have said I'll just buy on Coinbase and let everything stay there but with the way things are going, I feel like I need to do more research. I don't really trust the idea of keeping your own private keys, sort of like I don't really trust putting cash under the mattress, but it's interesting.

Yeah, the risk/reward is starting to get pretty attractive.

I use a Ledger wallet. I do all of my buys/sells on Coinbase Pro as to make my tax life easy and to limit my own confusion from using various exchanges. I then send to my wallet.

Your seed phrase should be initially hand written when first recorded. NEVER TYPE ON A KEYBOARD in a word pad, google doc, etc. Then it's up to you. Some people people use a safety deposit box, others bury in their yard, lol. Also, fire safety is important if you opt for a home safe. Personally I like to stamp each word onto steel washer and bolt/nut together as opposed to using paper.

If I had a substantial amount of crypto then I would have several sets of wallets and keys stored at various locations.

 

[Big Daddy Kang]

The risk/reward on Enron got pretty low, too.

 

[JustAnotherTimeline]

The risk/reward on Enron got pretty low, too.

The fraud by Enron would be more akin to Bitcoin having a security issue or network attack. That is not what is happening right now.

 

[melt]

Enron isn't a totally bad comparison. They were cooking the books by using future potential profits to make it seem like they were earning more money, while hiding bad assets to downplay their losses. It made them look way more profitable than they really were. Once everyone saw that they were frauds, investors fled and the company went under.

Right now it's probably lots of VC money leaving the crypto market as cheap interest rates are gone, and now you have places like Celsius experiencing a run on the bank. Glad to have crypto reinvent Black Monday.

 

[BryceC]

Enron isn't a totally bad comparison. They were cooking the books by using future potential profits to make it seem like they were earning more money, while hiding bad assets to downplay their losses. It made them look way more profitable than they really were. Once everyone saw that they were frauds, investors fled and the company went under.

Right now it's probably lots of VC money leaving the crypto market as cheap interest rates are gone, and now you have places like Celsius experiencing a run on the bank. Glad to have crypto reinvent Black Monday.

People went to prison in the Enron deal. That was actual fraud.

People got taken in by some snake oil salesman when it came to Crypto. I actually think this is much, much more like the .com bubble of the late 90s and early 00s. In that timeframe there were a bunch of junk companies that got founded, took seed money, and really didn't have any product or service. Those crap companies all got purged during the .com bubble.

Now that said, I think the value proposition for something like "buying things online instead of in physical stores" is still a better value proposition than "let's replace the USD". But it's absolutely unfair to compare Crypto to Bitcoin.

 

[JustAnotherTimeline]

Enron isn't a totally bad comparison. They were cooking the books by using future potential profits to make it seem like they were earning more money, while hiding bad assets to downplay their losses. It made them look way more profitable than they really were. Once everyone saw that they were frauds, investors fled and the company went under.

Right now it's probably lots of VC money leaving the crypto market as cheap interest rates are gone, and now you have places like Celsius experiencing a run on the bank. Glad to have crypto reinvent Black Monday.

Comparing Enron to Celsius, sure I can see that. Frankly, I hope celsius fails and the CEL token goes to zero. I'm glad they aren't going to get a government bailout like the banks did in 08.

Otherwise, any comparison to bitcoin does not apply.

Bitcoin != Celsius

 

[JustAnotherTimeline]

People went to prison in the Enron deal. That was actual fraud.

People got taken in by some snake oil salesman when it came to Crypto. I actually think this is much, much more like the .com bubble of the late 90s and early 00s. In that timeframe there were a bunch of junk companies that got founded, took seed money, and really didn't have any product or service. Those crap companies all got purged during the .com bubble.

Now that said, I think the value proposition for something like "buying things online instead of in physical stores" is still a better value proposition than "let's replace the USD". But it's absolutely unfair to compare Crypto to Bitcoin.

This is the third or fourth crypto market cycle depending on how you measure. This bear will destroy Celsius/Luna/UST just like the last bear destroyed the ICO boom. The crypto gods require sacrificial lambs every cycle (which is why most alts will never eclipse their previous ATH). I don't see any objective reason to think THIS is the cycle BTC goes to zero. Bitcoin will dictate the crypto market for the foreseeable future and it's dominance will fuel the next rally. Wash. Rinse. Repeat.

 

[BryceC]

This is the third or fourth crypto market cycle depending on how you measure. This bear will destroy Celsius/Luna/UST just like the last bear destroyed the ICO boom. The crypto gods require sacrificial lambs every cycle (which is why most alts will never eclipse their previous ATH). I don't see any objective reason to think THIS is the cycle BTC goes to zero. Bitcoin will dictate the crypto market for the foreseeable future and it's dominance will fuel the next rally. Wash. Rinse. Repeat.

Again I don't want to be a jerk here but it's not like the crypto market cycle is somehow completely unrelated to the regular market cycle. We're in a downturn everywhere. People got all juiced up on crypto the same way they got juiced up on .com stocks 20 years ago.

I agree, Bitcoin isn't going anywhere. But there was a lot of money thrown at crypto during the pandemic. A LOT of money and there were a lot of new investors in the space. Those people all lost money as of right now, some of them probably a lot.

I'm sure some of them will be right back in, but some of them won't be, or at least won't be in as hot and heavy as they were. The pandemic economy has caused a lot of weird stuff and I think the crypto boom was one of them.

For the record if Bitcoin gets low enough I'm going to consider buying some.

 

[JustAnotherTimeline]

Again I don't want to be a jerk here but it's not like the crypto market cycle is somehow completely unrelated to the regular market cycle. We're in a downturn everywhere. People got all juiced up on crypto the same way they got juiced up on .com stocks 20 years ago.

I agree, Bitcoin isn't going anywhere. But there was a lot of money thrown at crypto during the pandemic. A LOT of money and there were a lot of new investors in the space. Those people all lost money as of right now, some of them probably a lot.

I'm sure some of them will be right back in, but some of them won't be, or at least won't be in as hot and heavy as they were. The pandemic economy has caused a lot of weird stuff and I think the crypto boom was one of them.

For the record if Bitcoin gets low enough I'm going to consider buying some.

I agree. If these were typical macro conditions I would be calling for a bottom right now (in BTC). But with a very hawkish fed and until inflation gets under control we could dip lower then anyone expects.

Do you think the 2024 halving will be the first one not to propel another bull run?

 

[BryceC]

I agree. If these were typical macro conditions I would be calling for a bottom right now (in BTC). But with a very hawkish fed and until inflation gets under control we could dip lower then anyone expects.

Do you think the 2024 halving will be the first one not to propel another bull run?

I would assume there will be another bull run, because IMO Bitcoin/Crypto is more susceptible to the narrative than any other asset class. Bitcoin evangelists will tell themselves (and anybody with ears to hear) there will be a bull run and due to that there will be. But honestly I don't know, 2 years is a very long time for a still developing thing like Bitcoin.

I mean if large holders of Bitcoin are forced to eat their losses and sell that would be pretty significant.

For example, if Bitcoin drops below 21k, Michael Saylor/Microstrategy will have a margin call where they will need to get more assets to back a loan they have. That guy owns like .6% of all Bitcoin. What happens if Bitcoin gets to 15k? What happens if it goes to 10k? That guy and his company is going to tank, and he'll need to unload his assets to service his debt. There is still a lot of potential downward pressure on it.

 

[JustAnotherTimeline]

I would assume there will be another bull run, because IMO Bitcoin/Crypto is more susceptible to the narrative than any other asset class. Bitcoin evangelists will tell themselves (and anybody with ears to hear) there will be a bull run and due to that there will be.

What narrative are you referring to? The halving is a programmed economy change, not a narrative.

 

[BryceC]

What narrative are you referring to? The halving is a programmed economy change, not a narrative.

The narrative is that anytime things halve, it goes on a bull run. Why would that cause a bull run? Why does that make Bitcoin more appealing to those people who invest in it? From what I understand it just means it takes longer to generate more coins.

 

[JustAnotherTimeline]

The narrative is that anytime things halve, it goes on a bull run. Why would that cause a bull run? Why does that make Bitcoin more appealing to those people who invest in it? From what I understand it just means it takes longer to generate more coins.

Sort of. Right now, a block is created every 10 minutes and the winning miner is awarded with 6.25 bitcoin. That new supply is inflationary. Currently that means the inflation rate of bitcoin is 1.8%. In 2024 at the halving, 3.125 bitcoin will be awarded every 10 minutes and the inflation rate will drop below 1%. It's supply and demand. The supply shock will cause the price to rise assuming there is still demand for bitcoin.

To your point, while the "narrative" does play a part in generating the fomo and ensuing bubble like cycles, there is still a fundamental change to the code that is mathematically bullish for price assuming the demand for bitcoin is there.

 

[besserheimerphat]

Yeah, the risk/reward is starting to get pretty attractive.

I use a Ledger wallet. I do all of my buys/sells on Coinbase Pro as to make my tax life easy and to limit my own confusion from using various exchanges. I then send to my wallet.

Your seed phrase should be initially hand written when first recorded. NEVER TYPE ON A KEYBOARD in a word pad, google doc, etc. Then it's up to you. Some people people use a safety deposit box, others bury in their yard, lol. Also, fire safety is important if you opt for a home safe. Personally I like to stamp each word onto steel washer and bolt/nut together as opposed to using paper.

If I had a substantial amount of crypto then I would have several sets of wallets and keys stored at various locations.

That seems way easier that using an FDIC insured bank account.

 

[JustAnotherTimeline]

That seems way easier that using an FDIC insured bank account.

Would you be interested in knowing more about creating your address/key by rolling a dice 100 times? Nothing better then true randomization for security

 

[dafarmer]

I hope most of you are wrong, but some of the reasoning on here reminds me of every boom-bust cycle in history, Gradually there will come a bottom, but for some it will be too late and too low.

 

[besserheimerphat]

Would you be interested in knowing more about creating your address/key by rolling a dice 100 times? Nothing better then true randomization for security

We had somebody that kept hacking our wifi, so I finally used Excel to generate 16 random numbers for our password. I figured it wasn't impossible to brute force if someone really wanted to, but people wouldn't find it worth the effort.

 

[clonehome]

Yeah, the risk/reward is starting to get pretty attractive.

I use a Ledger wallet. I do all of my buys/sells on Coinbase Pro as to make my tax life easy and to limit my own confusion from using various exchanges. I then send to my wallet.

Your seed phrase should be initially hand written when first recorded. NEVER TYPE ON A KEYBOARD in a word pad, google doc, etc. Then it's up to you. Some people people use a safety deposit box, others bury in their yard, lol. Also, fire safety is important if you opt for a home safe. Personally I like to stamp each word onto steel washer and bolt/nut together as opposed to using paper.

If I had a substantial amount of crypto then I would have several sets of wallets and keys stored at various locations.

That effort alone will keep 99% of the population out of cryptocurrency and ensure that it will always be a novelty rather than a mainstream financial product. Imagine if Charles Schwab or Wells Fargo offered those instructions when you went online to open an investment account or a bank account.

 

[NWICY]

So is now the time to buy the yacht ape NFT things?

 

[Ames]

So is now the time to buy the yacht ape NFT things?

It is. The cheapest one is only $105,000 right now. Fire sale.