*** Official #1 Baylor vs #8 IOWA STATE Game(Day) Thread ***

WhoISthis

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Oct 6, 2010
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once they all drop the last bit of last season’s data I’ll go back to looking more at a mix of computer rankings anyway.

The Big 12 is usually the only league with 70% or 80% good teams. Human polling is pretty worthless for our conference with that reality.
Getting ranked and recognition at a top-10 is never worthless.

I don't think we're the 10th best, but we deserve to be ranked around there and it is great for the program
 

kentkel

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To me, what makes me even more optimistic about this team is the fact that we were down 14 and 12 points late in the game and still found a way to whittle that down to 5 - with a very realistic chance of making it a last possession type of game. Under the previous regime, that would have been a nearly impossible feat (especially without Hoiberg’s recruits). The daily habits of this team that we hear about from TJ was perfectly modeled during that last 3 1/2 minutes. Against a lesser opponent, we may likely have come out on top.
 

jsb

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Not much to complain about today but any reason Gabe got so much time? Is he that good on defense? I’d like to see tre and tyrese play a bit together. Especially if we can’t hit a three.
 

jctisu

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When talking about 3P shooting, there is an argument that shooting is random.

I don't subscribe to that notion. I do think Baylor's quality defense and length impacts shooting throughout the game. I think we make more open ones against a worse defense.

They definitely impact how few attempts we have. Which I love that this staff has made the team disciplined enough to not shoot themselves out of the game
A lot of truth in this post. There are times it is random where one team is just making the wide open looks and the other team isn't. But that for me is usually in the 1st Half when guys are fresh. In the 2nd Half of games, especially a tough defensive one, the wide open ones are overly affected by a couple of things imo.

1) Tired legs and overall exhaustion where mechanics are just not as fluid and precise.
2) Been pressured all day and an open look gets rushed because you've had to rush them all day
 
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HFCS

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Getting ranked and recognition at a top-10 is never worthless.

I don't think we're the 10th best, but we deserve to be ranked around there and it is great for the program

I don't think it's worthless to be ranked, I just don't think it's possible for voter polls to be accurate over the course of conference play when our conference is drastically deeper than every other conference that has a weaker bottom half.

When a league has 10 teams and 8 of them show to be pretty good in non conference, and the other leagues have 14 or 15 teams and half of them look like easy wins...you'll never get reliable voter polling for the super deep league.

Current AP when we start playing each other:
#1
#6
#8
#17
#25
#27
#28
That's 70% of our teams in the top 28 before we have to start beating each other up.

Watch those AP numbers tumble as they have to play each other. Completely irrational but it's inevitable.
 

Neptune78

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This is a really well coached Cyclone team. Didn't fold when the chips were down late.
A tough game by Gabe, and Caleb was just hair off. Was hoping Jaz would have a couple of dagger 3s. Tristan was played great, but a the end of the day Baylor just shot lights out.
 
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CYEATHAWK

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Game of inches. They miss a three.......and we make one more.......? Use to make fun of Drew calling all his TO's so early. He will NOT let Hilton get out of hand. Good coach. If the guys can get that close to #1 with 1-14 from 3, I'd say they are still on schedule for a upper division conference finish and a single digit seed in the dance.
 

bearcat92

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I liked seeing Hunter put up those teardrops in the paint in the last few minutes. A shot that will serve him well down the road.
This. That's probably a shot he can become more consistent with sooner vs 3 pointer or midrange. Get Stinson on the horn or show him some tape...If he could get close to Curtis' level...WATCH OUT
 

WhoISthis

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A lot of truth in this post. There are times it is random where one team is just making the wide open looks and the other team isn't. But that for me is usually in the 1st Half when guys are fresh. In the 2nd Half of games, especially a tough defensive one, the wide open ones are overly affected by a couple of things imo.

1) Tired legs and overall exhaustion where mechanics are just not as fluid and precise.
2) Been pressured all day and an open look gets rushed because you've had to rush them all day

One of the stat guys can chime in on what the exact conclusion is, but as much as I think metrics are good, if they are telling you the defense and shooting % are not highly correlated, it is sample error. Like you said, tired legs play a part. I believe they are starting to track player movement so I'm guessing soon there can be a proxy variable for the defense's impact on fatigue, as well as better assessment on how close a defender was when a shot was taken/time to take a shot, but this adage predates that.


But man, we've watched Gabe and Hunter really struggle on offense for several games. I don't know what they can do structurally to be a better offense. IF, IF, Enaruna can be a good Big 12 level scorer at the 4, with Kunc at the 5 some, plus IB, we just need one more scorer. Jackson or Grill being hot off the bench is one way, but that implies Gabe or Hunter is sitting.
 
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dahliaclone

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What’s crazy is that everyone is agreement on two things. One, Baylor is really good and clutch and couldn’t miss. But two, we really didn’t play well. That’s partly Baylor’s defense.

But being that off from three while they had at least ten points from shot clock beating shots and yet only losing by five?! Proud of these guys.

can’t wait for Wednesday!
 

Thomasrickj

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I finally watched the game (had to go to something else). Akinjo is too good and doesn’t miss when he’s highly contested. Baylor’s size was a bit much sometimes as they got a lot of offensive rebounds in timely situations. Three point shooting and Kalscheur never being able to get into a rhythm offensively were what killed us. I think we have a fairly good team and could finish in the top half of the conference.
 
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MJ271

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One of the stat guys can chime in on what the exact conclusion is, but as much as I think metrics are good, if they are telling you the defense and shooting % are not highly correlated, it is sample error. Like you said, tired legs play a part. I believe they are starting to track player movement so I'm guessing soon there can be a proxy variable for the defense's impact on fatigue, as well as better assessment on how close a defender was when a shot was taken/time to take a shot, but this adage predates that.

Here are some articles on three point defence:

In the second and third articles, Ken Pomeroy determined that the offence has about 83% of the influence over three point percentage in a given game. That's the third-largest influence the offence has over any statistic, behind free throw percentage and average possession length. So there is some defensive influence, but not a huge amount. Granted, this analysis was done in 2015. It might be reasonable that these results have changed since the line moved back and with style of play changes.
 
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