But just look at self-driving cars - it's clear the technology is not there to replace humans.
We'll agree to disagree here. It's already better than humans. It's legal stuff holding it up now.
But just look at self-driving cars - it's clear the technology is not there to replace humans.
We certainly don't. Unless you work in AI (I don't, but have a basic understanding of what machine learning does) or can explain how and why machine learning technology can teach computers to improvise and know what to do in unknown situations, then I'm going to take what you say as more hype. And you might be right at the end of the day and I might be wrong. But nothing has shown me that self driving cars are ready.We absolutely know how to teach cars to improvise. The question then becomes more philosophical. Are we gonna let the car kill a pregnant woman in the street or the driver? We can teach it either way but we're running into those issues when it comes to robots. The tech of just regularly driving around is well established and proven, people are just afraid of 1 in a million stuff happening like that women who died in Arizona walking a bike across the street in pitch black darkness and got hit. A human would've hit her too but at least you have someone to blame in that scenario.
Who are you gonna blame when a self driving car kills someone in an impossible situation? The car company? The person who wrote the code? The "driver"? The person who is dead?
Tech itself not a big deal. What to do with it is everything.
My bad on missing your references on real returns but again I'd like to point out the numbers you are using are an educated guess and nothing more.I went CRTL+F on my post and saw I said "real returns" four times. I was very clear that I was talking about real returns -- that is, returns after inflation, which is what "real returns" means.
Real ROI for Social Security is between 1% and 2% depending on a number of factors (e.g., what exact time period you use, which is the same parameter that determines what the real ROI of equities are going to be). Not quite zero, but it sucks. Equities are still going to be 5%+ higher in the long term, though.
Which leads to the compounding... which leads to my worker having enough wealth to their name to live into their 140s while yours has enough income to barely make it past the age of 70.
Most Americans aren't even going to understand what is going on here. If you're going to force people to save for retirement (which is at least a defensible policy) then do it right -- give them some decent returns over the course of a lifetime. The policy wonks writing about the "glory" of the SS system undoubtedly have their own 401(k) plowed hard into the market. Lots of people in SS wouldn't like the fact they are forced to buy federal debt through their payroll contributions. I doubt you'd care about their opinion, and I'm not going to care if some people don't like that the S&P 500 has those "nasty/evil/bewitching/etc." tech companies in it.
CalPERS is the largest in the U.S., but it is hardly the only public or semipublic pension system that is in the market. Even larger than CalPERS is Federal Retirement Thrift for federal employees, and it has its assets in the market. Add up the dozens of them and you're talking much larger holdings.
As others pointed out, the U.S. is an international outlier amid peers for not investing its public pension system in the market. Japan does. South Korea does. Canada does. Most European countries do. They have much better-managed systems for not being so insanely adverse to any risk. This ultimately gives a better deal for their workers for their savings, which I thought was the point of the whole exercise.
Yup. It’s a piece of cake. Anybody can do it.
Did you read my post? I think that it will happen but it's further than people think. Not saying we shouldn't figure out solutions for how to handle it because it's absolutely going to continue to trend that way. I also said there will be more jobs where people will require more training than just turning a screw and we need to prepare our workforce for that as we currently lack a lot of people with that technical training"As for robots replacing everyone..."
Imagine you're a horse in the early 1900s. They had all sorts of jobs. And it only took a couple decades to be replaced by cars and tractors and trains. Yea there's technically still jobs for horses but not the millions as before
Start taking small fractions and investing it in indexes. Then at retirement, subtract 50% of the gain from SS. Do it until the proceeds are greater. I’m guessing that they could be 50/50 and people would be better off in a couple generationsI could probably get on board with the goverment investing SS Funds into index funds. I do not support eliminating SS and letting people just invest it.
True, it doesn't run itself. Deere needs welders, CNC operators, drivers, etc. All of these people bring a skill that the is critical to operating the company, same as managing and overseeing the company is a skill that the CEO brings.
As you say, $14.5M is a drop in the bucket for JD to pay someone with management skills. My question is again, why are those skill deemed so much more valuable than a welder or a machinist? What justifies a 240:1 pay ratio between the CEO and the base level employee?
I agree, because capital is sufficiently skilled at exploiting labor in ways that it wasn’t back in 1950. And that bell can’t be un-rang; there will always be McKinsey and Wharton guys calling the shots now, short of a massive change in the economic legal structure.
Kemin Industries is probably one of the more high tech ones I've seen in DM.I've toured JDDMW multiple times between school and my job. I've worked on multiple design projects for them, including the B40 project. Every time I went there, it always seemed to be this weird blend of dated manufacturing techniques and hi-tech equipment. It always amazes me what actually comes off those lines. Although, the on-board computers play such a large role in equipment theses days, and it's not like those are manufactured there.
As a retired Branch Local Union President. I’ve stated this a million times. A union is a necessary evil. If corporations treated ALL their employees well. You wouldn’t need unions.
It looks like it has doubled in value since COVID pandemic. I am curious to see if this increase is in line with other "American Based" companies.
Good crops and prices going up.It was very flat the 2 years prior to the pandemic. Something changed. I think the graph helps explain why his performance based bonuses increased so much.
It was very flat the 2 years prior to the pandemic. Something changed. I think the graph helps explain why his performance based bonuses increased so much.
Yes. I understand compound interest. You keep saying SS generates no revenue. Where are you getting that? SS holds government debt. That generates income which would also be compounded.
In addition, I see major issues with how funds are invested and who makes those decisions. You keep mentioning investing in the S&P 500. What an advantage you're giving these companies over all others with the infusion of capital these companies will receive.
No. No they do not. They do the opposite actually.They're the only defense in keeping health providers from charging whatever the hell they want.
For grains it’s because of SA crop issues and other areas. Ethanol has been shutting down plants.In a nutshell, the excess capacity in the oil industry vaporized because of Covid. For a myriad of reasons, the capacity hasn't come back online as quickly as demand has. This has driven up the price of oil along with the price of corn and soybeans. (ethanol and biodiesel) It has gotten farmers (after several years of crap prices) to buy new equipment. IDK about 2018, but I assume they lost money as they did in 2019.