Pac-12 to decide whether to expand within a couple weeks

[AuH2O]

It depends on the next PAC TV contract. If the PAC makes something close to the BIG, then it will work. If not, the top teams in the PAC won’t be satisfied.

PAC isn't going to make close to the Big 10 or SEC. Not even close. They have been and continue to be a financial wreck. The idea that this alliance to not poach and add a non-con cross-over is going to keep the PAC happy and stable is laughable. To keep it stable you need to keep USC and Oregon happy.

Big 10 won't poach their top teams. PAC will be in lock step in terms of voting against (if needed) the SEC to keep power balanced.

Big 10 is happy, PAC teams not named USC and Oregon are happy. But people expect USC and Oregon are going to just be happy making crap money and have their most likely opportunity to make more money taken away, at least in the short term?

Even if they decide to knock off the FCS/G5 non-con games and play 3 cross-over non-con games (which I'm sure teams don't want to do) it's not a windfall for the PAC. Oregon and USC already get whatever and how many big non-con games they would want. Basically this helps the Big 10 and the rest of the PAC while screwing USC and Oregon. Locking in non-con games with the Big 10 and ACC doesn't do a damn thing for them they couldn't do on their own.

There has to be something more to it. No one could be this dumb to think this is going to stabilize the PAC.

 

[AuH2O]

Nobody knows how tight it is. If the B1G wants USC/Oregon etc., and those schools are willing to put up with the travel to basically double their TV $$, then there’s nothing the Pac can do to keep them.

It sounds like the Alliance will at least head off the B1G poaching the Pac for now though. The open question is whether the Pac will just freeze and stay at 12 or try to grow with B12 leftovers in the meantime.

I think it's also a little dangerous for the Big 10 and perhaps arrogant thinking for USC it's either keep taking **** money in the PAC or join the Big 10. I know there would be a big stink about the academic fit, but the SEC would double USCs money. A higher percentage of SEC teams are in the Central time zone than Big 10 teams. Draw a latitudinal line from USC east and you cut through Texas, Miss., Alabama and Georgia. People have this idea of the Big 10 being this midwestern conference, but the SEC is a better geographical fit than the Big 10.

Of course, going the independent route could work too, but that certainly has some risk.

 

[Cyclonepride]

How tight is the alliance though. If the big ten takes a couple, what can the PAC do? Not schedule them in non con? Call them names? It’s basically feeding the alligator if the big XII goes G5 or so.

Probably not a lot, but with them working together, that indicates to me that the Big Ten really isn't interested in expanding on the West Coast.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

I think it's also a little dangerous for the Big 10 and perhaps arrogant thinking for USC it's either keep taking **** money in the PAC or join the Big 10. I know there would be a big stink about the academic fit, but the SEC would double USCs money. A higher percentage of SEC teams are in the Central time zone than Big 10 teams. Draw a latitudinal line from USC east and you cut through Texas, Miss., Alabama and Georgia. People have this idea of the Big 10 being this midwestern conference, but the SEC is a better geographical fit than the Big 10.

Of course, going the independent route could work too, but that certainly has some risk.

I doubt the Pac-12 is going to do anything that it knows would make USC unhappy. Is there a chance that USC is secretly meeting with the SEC, sure, but it’s much more likely that the USC brass is talking to their commissioner and saying the things that are leading to this alliance.

I think it is probably wrong to expect every school to act like Texas and Oklahoma by which I mean chase the highest $$$ and f**k over everybody else that you’ve associated with for decades or even more than a century. Ohio State could join the SEC or go independent and make more money, too, but no one expects that to be imminent. There are other considerations. We just happen to have the misfortune at ISU of being subject to the whims of some real bastards that didn’t have a problem with f**king us over.

 

[BCClone]

I wonder if the PAC would look at 3 groups of 6 and add 6 big XII teams Then take the two highest ranked division champs and play them.

 

[SimpsonCyclone]

Dan Patrick has said multiple times this morning on his show that (according to his source), the Alliance (BIG, PAC12, ACC) have zero interest in anyone from the rest of the Big12. The only interest (albeit very, very small interest) is KU because of it's basketball brand.

I was hopeful that we would find a good home a few weeks ago, but I'm starting to feel more and more like we are going to be ******.

 

[CascadeClone]

PAC isn't going to make close to the Big 10 or SEC. Not even close. They have been and continue to be a financial wreck. The idea that this alliance to not poach and add a non-con cross-over is going to keep the PAC happy and stable is laughable. To keep it stable you need to keep USC and Oregon happy.

There has to be something more to it. No one could be this dumb to think this is going to stabilize the PAC.

On the money part - two points. First, how much (either as a % of the B1G, or in absolute terms) is enough to be competitive? Texas had way more cash than everybody and couldn't use it well. I think there are real diminishing returns to money, even if the B1G and SEC are making $100M, and you are "only" making $60M, isn't that enough to compete? You can do anything you want with facilities, you can pay coaches, etc. At that point, you are just really gilding everything and paying for add'l sports. This is also the PAC we are talking about - there's a lot of high-mindedness in those schools and it's not the simple SEC mindset of "more is better" wrt money. Second, I DO think the Pac will start doing much better with their contracts and media money going forwards - the new commish is much more business minded. Larry Scott was just committing malpractice for years out there.

That said, I agree with you that there is more to this than just scheduling or non-poaching by the B1G. I DO think as others have said, this is more about countering the SEC/ESPN, ensuring the playoff is not just a SEC/ESPN fundraiser, and finding ways for all 3 conferences to work together for mutual benefit. I suspect it was also a chance to sit down and agree not to rush expansion, but to do it in good time and sensibly - again, to strengthen all 3 conferences so as to stand up against SEC/ESPN. And in time, it may turn into a grand plan, where some teams move around a little and most the Big12 gets broken up and added here or there.

 

[AuH2O]

I doubt the Pac-12 is going to do anything that it knows would make USC unhappy. Is there a chance that USC is secretly meeting with the SEC, sure, but it’s much more likely that the USC brass is talking to their commissioner and saying the things that are leading to this alliance.

I think it is probably wrong to expect every school to act like Texas and Oklahoma by which I mean chase the highest $$$ and f**k over everybody else that you’ve associated with for decades or even more than a century. Ohio State could join the SEC or go independent and make more money, too, but no one expects that to be imminent. There are other considerations. We just happen to have the misfortune at ISU of being subject to the whims of some real bastards that didn’t have a problem with f**king us over.

I think USC is in a totally different situation than OU or UT. OU and UT were making nearly SEC money and got to run the show in the Big 12. They are also in a totally different scenario than Ohio State.

USC should have some real concern about getting left in the dust by the SEC and Big 10 financially if something doesn't change.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

Dan Patrick has said multiple times this morning on his show that (according to his source), the Alliance (BIG, PAC12, ACC) have zero interest in anyone from the rest of the Big12. The only interest (albeit very, very small interest) is KU because of it's basketball brand.

I was hopeful that we would find a good home a few weeks ago, but I'm starting to feel more and more like we are going to be ******.

This is closer to the outcome that I expect:

Pac announces they won’t expand;

B1G and ACC follow with the same;

Big 12 remainders start to float more publicly that they are sticking together and exploring expansion, but they all know that keeping UT and OU around through 2024 is the only sure way of staying P5 until then;

Pressure grows on the OU and UT side to go SEC earlier;

We end up getting a bunch of $$$ to let them out early along with an expanded CFP that will keep us at that table most years;

We also strike a deal with Amazon to keep the TV money higher than most people expect as we expand with 4-6 G5 programs. New look B12 begins in Fall 2024 or so. We are 5th in $$$ but the gap between 3/4 and 5 is not as big as many prognosticators believe right now. But 1 and 2 are miles ahead of the rest. We have to trim our budgets and Campbell leaves but we survive and still play meaningful football. Our league makes the CFP a large majority of seasons. It also gets plenty of March Madness bids. We all continue to fill JTS and Hilton and our school is nationally relevant when it’s winning. That part doesn’t change.

Hope I’m wrong but this is my guess if there was a gun to my head.

 

[AuH2O]

On the money part - two points. First, how much (either as a % of the B1G, or in absolute terms) is enough to be competitive? Texas had way more cash than everybody and couldn't use it well. I think there are real diminishing returns to money, even if the B1G and SEC are making $100M, and you are "only" making $60M, isn't that enough to compete? You can do anything you want with facilities, you can pay coaches, etc. At that point, you are just really gilding everything and paying for add'l sports. This is also the PAC we are talking about - there's a lot of high-mindedness in those schools and it's not the simple SEC mindset of "more is better" wrt money. Second, I DO think the Pac will start doing much better with their contracts and media money going forwards - the new commish is much more business minded. Larry Scott was just committing malpractice for years out there.

That said, I agree with you that there is more to this than just scheduling or non-poaching by the B1G. I DO think as others have said, this is more about countering the SEC/ESPN, ensuring the playoff is not just a SEC/ESPN fundraiser, and finding ways for all 3 conferences to work together for mutual benefit. I suspect it was also a chance to sit down and agree not to rush expansion, but to do it in good time and sensibly - again, to strengthen all 3 conferences so as to stand up against SEC/ESPN. And in time, it may turn into a grand plan, where some teams move around a little and most the Big12 gets broken up and added here or there.

I think people just say, Scott sucked, so the next deal will be worth a lot more because it will be negotiated better. I just don't buy it. Something fundamental has to change about the PAC. Their media isn't worth much because people don't watch. That's all. They aren't going to negotiate their way into a lucrative contract for a product that currently doesn't attract viewers. Maybe they can do something creative and leverage Amazon being willing to overpay to get into the space. But if they negotiate something that looks similar to a traditional TV contract it isn't going to be worth much, and the teams are going to get left in the dust by the Big 10 and SEC.

Sorry, when ISU or Okie St. are considered to be of no value, yet draw viewership just below your two top brands and well above everybody else, that's not an issue with poor negotiation. That's an issue with the value of your product.

I fully expect the PAC to sit tight for now and not get tangled up with the Big 12 mess for at least a while. Once that settles they either better try to get into some new time zones, get some viewership, or they aren't going to have enough value to keep USC and Oregon. Then their league folds and you'll have probably 8 of those teams in the same boat we are in right now.

 

[clonehome]

As was said by someone earlier, perception is reality. So the pr campaign by espn and the Atlantic and everyone else associated with them and the sec and ou and ut, has a real stake in trying to minimize the value of the remaining 8 schools. There are exit fees and settlements to be paid out, and they want to try to force these 8 into accepting less than full value.

And to be fair, they don’t give a **** about any big 10 school not named Ohio state Michigan penn state and maybe Wisconsin either. Same with acc football past Clemson notre dame and maybe Florida state and Miami. I’m

In the current state where everyone is scheming against the remaining 8, there is no way they should let OU and UT out of the GOR until it ends in 2025 unless the payout is something obscene like $500 mil for each school. And if Bowlsby does have evidence of tortious interference by ESPN then you throw a number like that out in a lawsuit anyway. Gum this thing up and make them all wait 4 years during which time everything could change again.

It irks me that so many people in media and on different college football message boards assume this is going to be the last year that OU and UT play in the Big 12. Unless many of the 8 start getting invites to play in other power conferences I think the odds are heavily in favor of the Horns and Sooners playing in the Big 12 four more years and ESPN and the SEC tapping their desk waiting. My ideal scenario is for ISU to get an invite to the B1G starting in the fall of 2025. Find a good landing spot while giving the middle finger to OU, UT, ESPN and the SEC for 4 years, meanwhile beating those schools and winning 9-10+ games each year.

 

[Die4Cy]

The B1G Network only became successful due to an aggressive pursuit of additional markets and viewers. I would be pretty surprised if that was lost on those operating PACNET.

 

[ImperialCyclone]

This is closer to the outcome that I expect:

Pac announces they won’t expand;

B1G and ACC follow with the same;

Big 12 remainders start to float more publicly that they are sticking together and exploring expansion, but they all know that keeping UT and OU around through 2024 is the only sure way of staying P5 until then;

Pressure grows on the OU and UT side to go SEC earlier;

We end up getting a bunch of $$$ to let them out early along with an expanded CFP that will keep us at that table most years;

We also strike a deal with Amazon to keep the TV money higher than most people expect as we expand with 4-6 G5 programs. New look B12 begins in Fall 2024 or so. We are 5th in $$$ but the gap between 3/4 and 5 is not as big as many prognosticators believe right now. But 1 and 2 are miles ahead of the rest. We have to trim our budgets and Campbell leaves but we survive and still play meaningful football. Our league makes the CFP a large majority of seasons. It also gets plenty of March Madness bids. We all continue to fill JTS and Hilton and our school is nationally relevant when it’s winning. That part doesn’t change.

Hope I’m wrong but this is my guess if there was a gun to my head.

My only thing is we are now relying on Amazon to bail us out? I just don’t see that happening either (not in the next 5 years anyway).

 

[tman24]

Dan Patrick has said multiple times this morning on his show that (according to his source), the Alliance (BIG, PAC12, ACC) have zero interest in anyone from the rest of the Big12. The only interest (albeit very, very small interest) is KU because of it's basketball brand.

I was hopeful that we would find a good home a few weeks ago, but I'm starting to feel more and more like we are going to be ******.

I would probably guess they have no interest right now, so they can make Texas and Oklahoma wait it out. Why would any of the other conferences that are doing just fine right now help the SEC? everything they are planning it to make the SEC wait.

Once the Big12 contract is up, I bet there are conferences that are interested in more than just Kansas.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

My only thing is we are now relying on Amazon to bail us out? I just don’t see that happening either (not in the next 5 years anyway).

Patreon subscribers probably feel better about the Amazon angle than other folks.

 

[Bestaluckcy]

Whether the PAC expands or not only rests on the dollars and cents IMO. They have no reason to play nice so Big 12 members can get paid. What they will remember is last time they did not get the deal closed and it fell through. Their backs are against the ocean. There only alternative is to look east, and I expect them to act in their own best interests, which probably means adding Big 12 teams.

 

[BCClone]

In the current state where everyone is scheming against the remaining 8, there is no way they should let OU and UT out of the GOR until it ends in 2025 unless the payout is something obscene like $500 mil for each school. And if Bowlsby does have evidence of tortious interference by ESPN then you throw a number like that out in a lawsuit anyway. Gum this thing up and make them all wait 4 years during which time everything could change again.

It irks me that so many people in media and on different college football message boards assume this is going to be the last year that OU and UT play in the Big 12. Unless many of the 8 start getting invites to play in other power conferences I think the odds are heavily in favor of the Horns and Sooners playing in the Big 12 four more years and ESPN and the SEC tapping their desk waiting. My ideal scenario is for ISU to get an invite to the B1G starting in the fall of 2025. Find a good landing spot while giving the middle finger to OU, UT, ESPN and the SEC for 4 years, meanwhile beating those schools and winning 9-10+ games each year.

Only way the SEC can combat the big XII holding UT and OU media rights is to make them play all big and/or meaningful games on the road. OU and UT won’t be happy getting Bandy and MSU only type teams at home and play bama and Georgia on the road for 3-4 years.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

I would probably guess they have no interest right now, so they can make Texas and Oklahoma wait it out. Why would any of the other conferences that are doing just fine right now help the SEC? everything they are planning it to make the SEC wait.

Once the Big12 contract is up, I bet there are conferences that are interested in more than just Kansas.

Is any credible media figure reporting that any Pac/B1G/ACC sources have interest in the Big 12? I haven’t heard about one. And you would think there would be some anonymous source who would tell the Dan Patricks and Dennis Dodds that they have some interest.

It’s probably not a “They’re just saying this now so OU and UT have to pay” because there would at least be some anonymous rumblings, right?

At some point when every single report is the same about their lack of interest, the most likely outcome becomes apparent. I definitely hope I’m wrong but I’m just facing reality. Someone share a single credible report (Greg Swaim types excluded) that says my source in the Pac-12 thinks they could grab four Big 12 schools, as
I would love to see it if it exists.

 

[cymonw1980]

Well, they're not going to, and I think it's a somewhat safe assumption that the alliance of the PAC 12, Big Ten and ACC includes an agreement to not steal teams from each other. If that is true, they really don't have any other options than to expand their own conference.

yes.... the only way this breaks down though, is if the SEC decides to expand again. They can choose to not steal from each other.... that will bring short to mid term stability (this is what the b10 wants). Then in ~15 yrs when the acc gor is up... UNC, UVA, Clem, FSU, etc. become available. These make more sense geographically and probably bring similar or in some cases more value than the PAC. I do think both the SEC and the B10 would expand if the ACC was not locked up. I could see both going to ~20 schools each. The pac might be "safe" but also likely will fall well behind the top two in terms of money. In the end, you could see 3 x 18 to 20 = 54 to 60 teams in the "P3" which would only leave out between 4 to 10 teams from the current "P5" (could be 11 if ND chooses to join a conf).

So, I do think the ACC is in trouble long term. That is probably the B10 / SEC preferred expansion option.

If that happens.. I do think ISU has a good shot at landing in a 54 to 60 team "P3" long term. The next 5 to 10 years will likely be tricky to navigate. But long term, ISU can land on their feet.

 

[clonehome]

Only way the SEC can combat the big XII holding UT and OU media rights is to make them play all big and/or meaningful games on the road. OU and UT won’t be happy getting Bandy and MSU only type teams at home and play bama and Georgia on the road for 3-4 years.

This implies that media rights only apply to a school’s home games. If so, that’s interesting but not my understanding. I’d like to hear more about this detail.