Pac-12 to decide whether to expand within a couple weeks

BCClone

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Not exactly sure.
If the PAC is smart they make sure they negotiate first. Hit up CBS, Fox and the streamers. See if CBS will go to 150-200 MM to replace the SEC stuff. The early games could be filled with the big XII teams. That is 20-25 MM that the big XII could bring. Now add the big XII teams to the PACN, you are going to gain 3-6 MM per team I’m guessing. That now says the big XII teams are worth 25-30 to add. If you can find a way to have them grind out 5-10 MM then you can offer the big XII 35 MM/year and you most likely will get a bump for the better supply of bigger matchups with OSU, ISU and such with the bigger Pac teams.
 

Rods79

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You're welcome. It is easy to see that Knight has a distinguished background. His book, based on his dissertation at Cornell, alone likely would have won him the Nobel, but awards were not given in that subject until something like 1969. I believe Ludwig von Mises' theory of entrepreneurship is basically the same as Knight's. My understanding is that he based his theory on probability concepts developed by his younger brother Richard, however, who was a professor of aerospace engineering at Harvard:
Human Action: A Treatise on Economics, vol. 1 (LF ed.) | Online Library of Liberty (libertyfund.org)

The first 200 pages of Human Action is pretty philosophical and not easy to understand, and there are major differences between the Austrians and others on methodology, so if you wanted to read that you might start at something like page 201:
Human Action | Mises Institute

A shorter work of his having to do with entrepreneurship is Profit and Loss (1951), written not long after Human Action (1949):
Profit and Loss | Mises Institute

I'll add this piece by Rene Magritte, the famous Belgian surrealist, that I consider relevant. He painted hundreds of pipes, I believe. The words at the bottom are "This is not a pipe."

View attachment 88328

Consider that in relation to Knight's concepts of risk versus uncertainty, and mathematical models more generally. The first part of his book is basically perfect competition, formalized.

Hayek taught from Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit, I read somewhere, as a textbook at the London School of Economics. It influenced him, I believe, in these writings:

Hayek, Economics and Knowledge (1936) | Online Library of Liberty (libertyfund.org)

“The Use of Knowledge in Society” (1945) | Online Library of Liberty (libertyfund.org)

B8EBF588-BEEE-4E46-9974-146525C7E8A5.jpeg

…I think I got the gist of this.
 

Clone83

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Magritte is pretty famous. I didn’t link because there are explanations online.

Although also known as This is Not a Pipe, it is titled “The Travesty of Images.”

But again he painted hundreds of pipes. In the only exhibit I saw, I recall one painting with a half a dozen pipes or more with the French words for “This is not a pipe” below each of them.
 

Rods79

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It’s not actually a pipe. It is a painting of a pipe (or in this case a digital image).

It is a “model” of a pipe, not the real thing.

Yes, I got it…because his probability models operate inside “risk” and not the “uncertainty”, allowing for the unknown which he is steadfastly against in all his posts.
 

Cloneon

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I think you are misunderstanding what I am saying. Do you think the networks value Iowa State, Kansas State, Arkansas, Mississippi State, Wake Forest, Louisville, Oregon State, Cal, Indiana, Northwestern and the other 40 programs of the same ilk? IMO No. The networks are paying 50%+ of their media rights expenditures to show traditional powers or solid schools with large alumni bases. So like it or not- ESPN, Fox, etc. are paying to televise: Texas, Oklahoma, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, Texas A&M, LSU, Clemson, Florida State, USC, Oregon, Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State and Notre Dame.

There is a next tier like Wisky, Nebraska and Tennessee that could be tier 1 programs if their teams are consistently top 10. Yes I shudder to include NU in that list and could easily be talked into removing them, based on their success over the last 20 years and fact that Nebraska is the 37th most populous state.

I agree 100% that CFB would lose a lot with just 30 schools. It would largely become a regional fan support sport, except of few intersectional games. Much of CFB's love affair by America is that college football fans at 120+ schools all have a connection to the race to be a playoff team. Cyclone fans know this better than most because a very average ISU team beat 2nd ranked Okie State and knocked them out of the playoff chase in 2011. One can also look at Appalachian State beating a 5th ranked Michigan back in 2007.
Ok. Back on track. How many schools would you consider viable as a new level of CFB? After starting with that number, what schools make it? And, then of course, the billion dollar question: how long does it take for these schools to lose interest because they're no longer the 'elite'?
 

Cloneon

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I think this is a really good point. I have seen the valuation number start out as -75% with OuT leaving. Then -50%. Now we are seeing more like -33%. -33% is getting close to PAC12 average per team payout then. This would change the script in that certain schools would indeed add value to the PAC. I would think ISU/KU/OSU/Tech would be those schools. Interesting indeed.
What is the source? And motivation? Therein lies the credibility of the number. And even that is based on what perspective you're looking at the number from.

Food for thought: if this were going to get litigated, why on earth would Bowlsby say the valuation wasn't damaged? The course he took sets up for punitive damages much greater than contract obligation. That said, 'silence' would, imo, have still been the best option.
 

cyIclSoneU

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I do keep coming back to this. Baylor and TCU are not great research institutions. They are good schools, but poor research. That matters to the PAC and B1G.

I believe Baylor is on track to become an R1 research institution by 2024. TCU on the other hand has no interest in getting there. But Baylor will be.

I think Baylor is harmed more by its cultural and religious affiliations as well as its AD baggage otherwise with respect to getting into the Pac-12. I think TCU and maybe even Houston would be ahead of Baylor in the Pac-12 pecking order if the conference was dead set on getting multiple Texas schools along with Tech.

I continue to think Tech, OSU, KU, and ISU are the most likely picks to join what will be a Pac-16 - IF the league decides to expand. That will be a huge piece of news.

It would be strange to have the Pac-16 at that point be the "winner" in terms of reuniting the plurality of the Big 8. It would have the three new additions plus CU. The SEC would have OU and MU. The B1G would have NU. And poor KSU would be in some American-type league.
 

SEIOWA CLONE

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OU is easily better than UF and LSU and its not close.
I can give you OU is better than Florida, but no way they are better then LSU. Last time OU won a title was in Stoops first couple of years, LSU won the title a couple of years ago.
LSU has to play and beat Alabama every year to get to the conference championship game, while OU only as UT, OSU and ISU.

OU has never won a playoff game, they are the large fish in the small pond. Historically good program, that has not won a title in a couple of decades. The fall of UT has allowed them to shine in the Big 12, how many division championships would they have if they switched places with LSU? One maybe in the last 10 years?
 
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ruflosn

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I can give you OU is better than Florida, but no way they are better then LSU. Last time OU won a title was in Stoops first couple of years, LSU won the title a couple of years ago.
LSU has to play and beat Alabama every year to get to the conference championship game, while OU only as UT, OSU and ISU.

OU has never won a playoff game, they are the large fish in the small pond. Historically good program, that has not won a title in a couple of decades. The fall of UT has allowed them to shine in the Big 12, how many division championships would they have if they switched places with LSU? One maybe in the last 10 years?
So, Baylor, TCU & TTU have been irrelevant and non-existent in the B12? If I recall, each one of those schools has had at least one or two good seasons over the past few years. A lot of short terms memories here.
 
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AuH2O

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Here is the big problem: will adding those 4 teams increase the size of their TV contract and if so how much? The prevailing opinions seem to believe that those schools do not have the value to add at a full conference membership rate, a discounted one sure but a full has yet to be said anywhere. If the PAC were to add those schools and not be able to increase their media rights significantly higher then USC is going to want to bolt so that they don't fall too far behind. If there is this allince in place that the big ten and ACC wont take them then they really wont have anywhere to go. Its very possible that the "alliance" doesn't have a problem with the PAC12 adding those big8 schools. I have been told that part of the talks have been no expansion but I'm not 100% sure if that includes the big8 or not.
TV ratings say at least ISU and OSU would. People need to keep in mind that PAC has a pretty low bar, ISU and OSUs viewership even without accounting for post season and Oklahoma and Texas games was nearly that of Oregon and USC. They smoked the rest of the PAC in viewership.

People also need to realize what a low bar there is to say a game brings value. MAC and Sun Belt games get televised, so all inventory has some value. If those games have enough value to put on TV at all, a team like ISU that can draw like that has significant value. Is it enough to boost per team revenue? Well, ISU and OSU would draw greater than 80% of USCs viewership and almost 90% of Oregon’s. There’s no conferences outside the top tier that have anything close to this. As a comparison, accounting for similar games, Iowa drew less than 30% of Ohio State and less than 40% of PSU, Michigan and Wisconsin.

So you are making two contradictory arguments, that ISU wouldn’t add to a per team value in the PAC, yet want to pretend that the MSUs and Iowa’s do.
 

CyCrazy

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I can give you OU is better than Florida, but no way they are better then LSU. Last time OU won a title was in Stoops first couple of years, LSU won the title a couple of years ago.
LSU has to play and beat Alabama every year to get to the conference championship game, while OU only as UT, OSU and ISU.

OU has never won a playoff game, they are the large fish in the small pond. Historically good program, that has not won a title in a couple of decades. The fall of UT has allowed them to shine in the Big 12, how many division championships would they have if they switched places with LSU? One maybe in the last 10 years?

LsU was terrible last year. If you want to talk history OU dwarfs LSU.
 

SEIOWA CLONE

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LsU was terrible last year. If you want to talk history OU dwarfs LSU.
Yes, they were, and they won the title the year before. LSU has won four national titles in football the last three coming in 2003, 2007 and 2019. The AP list titles for OU in 2000, 1985 and 1975.

Which school has to go through Alabama to get the title game, and which doesn't?

The problem with throwing out the HISTORY idea, is how far back do you go. If you want to say all time history, then schools like Minnesota, Army and Navy are all time greats, but none of the three have been relative in the sports for decades. OU won the title in 2000 and was destroyed in the championship game by USC is 2004. Its been a long time since OU won anything other than a conference title.

FBS Football Championship History | NCAA.com
 

LincolnSwinger

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“Texas lawmakers dug into the future of the Big 12 without the Sooners and Longhorns. Bowlsby said the TV contract value would take a 50% hit.” From USNews and a bunch of other pages. If he came back and said something different you might have more recent info
20% of that would simply be the impact of going from 10 schools to 8, leaving ~30% attributable to the brand strength of UT and OU.
 
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surly

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Here's a list of the R1 research universities. All B12 schools sans Baylor and TCU are on it.




Here's the USNews academic rankings.

  • University of Texas—Austin: 42 (tie)
  • Baylor University: 76 (tie)
  • Texas Christian University: 80 (tie)
  • Iowa State University: 118 (tie)
  • University of Kansas: 124 (tie)
  • University of Oklahoma: 133 (tie)
  • Kansas State University: 170 (tie)
  • Oklahoma State University: 187 (tie)
  • Texas Tech University: 217 (tie)
  • West Virginia University: 241 (tie)
 
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Gonzo

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I can give you OU is better than Florida, but no way they are better then LSU. Last time OU won a title was in Stoops first couple of years, LSU won the title a couple of years ago.
LSU has to play and beat Alabama every year to get to the conference championship game, while OU only as UT, OSU and ISU.

OU has never won a playoff game, they are the large fish in the small pond. Historically good program, that has not won a title in a couple of decades. The fall of UT has allowed them to shine in the Big 12, how many division championships would they have if they switched places with LSU? One maybe in the last 10 years?

This. Saying OU dwarfs LSU is delusion. That Joe Burrow LSU team might've been the best college football team I've seen in my lifetime.