IMO the positive decision (approval) after the 'negative' Adcom regarding $BIIB drug bodes well for future developers and their approval prospects. Definitely a good day to be 'overweight' in this sector.
2021 Stock Market
- Thread starter SoapyCy
- Start date
Really curious to see how markets react to a couple Fed Chairs discussing tampering of the balance sheet.
I'm got WAY more cash than I'd like to not be invested. Maybe tapering could juice money market or CD rates to above 1% so I can decent about my emergency fund returning something
I'm got WAY more cash than I'd like to not be invested. Maybe tapering could juice money market or CD rates to above 1% so I can decent about my emergency fund returning something
Sold CCIV at 24. Hoping it goes back into the teens after the official merger into Lucid. CSLT up another 7% today!
I'm overweight biotechs
) ) but approval of this drug is borderline ridiculous.FDA approves Biogen's Alzheimer's drug despite lack of evidence
I agree that the evidence for approval wasn't great, but at the same time it gives patients access to a drug they advocated for. I flipped the binary shares (yay/nay) I held when trading resumed this afternoon. Personally I think a combination treatment will eventually be the best option.I'm overweight biotechs
FDA approves Biogen's Alzheimer's drug despite lack of evidence
WKHS working for me in the meme sector today. Get in now if anyone wants to go to the moon.
on the other hand in the real world my 6/18 Calls on F are ****** though.
Wow, it was only last month I had a strangle on them expiring a week or so after their earnings report. Ended up making a 25% return on the trade, but the strike price was around $10-11 for each strike.
Been holding CLOV for probably 6 months and was losing my ass on it. V happy to see the last 24 hours.
Sure had a nice day today. Wish I would have got in at the $5.20 range instead of $5.70.
Marriott is a pretty consistent buy around 140, sell around 150 trade the last few months. Not big money but a good return overall.
I've had TIPS as like .5 to 1% of my 401k forever, and honestly the return has been fantastic.
A little addendum to this - I went to get my oil changed at the dealership I purchased my old F150 at today and I was going to talk about my reservation. This is at a dealership outside the DSM metro (although not much) in a small town.
They have a dedicated employee just filling reservations for the Mustang Mach E and the Bronco EV. She hasn't even looked at the F150 Lightening much yet because she has so much to get done with the other two Ford EV's that are fairly new due to the demand. It's Happening.gif
It's a 401k. In the long run it's been good. obviously it has it's ups and downs.
Here are two long term moneymakers for those of you who aren't daytrading meme stocks.
#1 Oxidental Petroleum. Ticker: OXY $28.80
Levered play on the oil rebound, got taken to the woodshed with the pandemic because of their very high debt structure. Almost went bankrupt. With a rebound in oil pricing due to the recovery and a lack of capital investment in the industry, their FCF is insane. And with oil seemingly heading to $100 over the next 3 years, this company will have a license to print money. They'll have their debt in line by late 2022 and trade in the $70-100 range. The debt allows you to buy it at a significant discount to it's peers such as EOG. (which also is a good play)
If you really want to leverage some upside, instead of buying the commons, buy the warrants. Ticker OXY.WS $12.37. Each warrant represents the option to buy one share of common stock for $22.00 and expires in August of 2027. If the share price hits $100, the warrants will trade for at least $78, plus any time premium depending how far away from 2027 it is. ($100-22=78) Not many investments out there that offer the opportunity for a 6 bagger plus with limited risk.
#2 Digital Turbine, Ticker APPS $72.70.
This is a company that is still pretty much flying under the radar. What do they do? Basically it's a mobile phone/smart device advertising play. Their main businesses involve partnering with cell phone providers like Verizon and sell spots for preinstalled apps on their phones. They also have new products that are even more promising, one called Single Tap that they can embed in digital ads or games that allows the customer in a single touch to download an advertiser's app directly without being forced into Google or Apple's app store. It not only offers more cost effective engagement with advertisers, but boxes out the app stores and their cut as well.
It's a high flyer, and like The Trade Desk has a product that's going to significantly change the digital advertising landscape, but trades at about half the price and has 1/4 the market cap. No reason this thing shouldn't be a 5-10 bagger in 5-10 years. They have a chance to be the dominant player in the space if they don't get bought out before that happens. They are already profitable.
Let me know if you have any questions or thoughts about either of the two.
#1 Oxidental Petroleum. Ticker: OXY $28.80
Levered play on the oil rebound, got taken to the woodshed with the pandemic because of their very high debt structure. Almost went bankrupt. With a rebound in oil pricing due to the recovery and a lack of capital investment in the industry, their FCF is insane. And with oil seemingly heading to $100 over the next 3 years, this company will have a license to print money. They'll have their debt in line by late 2022 and trade in the $70-100 range. The debt allows you to buy it at a significant discount to it's peers such as EOG. (which also is a good play)
If you really want to leverage some upside, instead of buying the commons, buy the warrants. Ticker OXY.WS $12.37. Each warrant represents the option to buy one share of common stock for $22.00 and expires in August of 2027. If the share price hits $100, the warrants will trade for at least $78, plus any time premium depending how far away from 2027 it is. ($100-22=78) Not many investments out there that offer the opportunity for a 6 bagger plus with limited risk.
#2 Digital Turbine, Ticker APPS $72.70.
This is a company that is still pretty much flying under the radar. What do they do? Basically it's a mobile phone/smart device advertising play. Their main businesses involve partnering with cell phone providers like Verizon and sell spots for preinstalled apps on their phones. They also have new products that are even more promising, one called Single Tap that they can embed in digital ads or games that allows the customer in a single touch to download an advertiser's app directly without being forced into Google or Apple's app store. It not only offers more cost effective engagement with advertisers, but boxes out the app stores and their cut as well.
It's a high flyer, and like The Trade Desk has a product that's going to significantly change the digital advertising landscape, but trades at about half the price and has 1/4 the market cap. No reason this thing shouldn't be a 5-10 bagger in 5-10 years. They have a chance to be the dominant player in the space if they don't get bought out before that happens. They are already profitable.
Let me know if you have any questions or thoughts about either of the two.
Isn't $APPS more mobile ad focused, whereas $TTD would be more of a 'streaming ad' play e.g. Mobile, TV, Computer? Not saying the value disconnection is justified, but I did nibble some $TTD on the earnings day correction.
I also have a hard time trusting $OXY after they overpaid for $APC, prefer the domestic supermajors myself - $CVX (bought a lot of good acreage in their $NBL acquisition for a fraction of what $OXY paid for $APC) and $XOM for example; and I also have some oil exposure through LPs and Service Companies - $100 oil will lift a lot of boats if that's the direction we actually head. Lower for longer (e.g. $40/bbl) will sink most but the supers IMO. I guess in the end it's a risk/reward tolerance perspective.
My $0.02. I hope you're correct in your $OXY call and you can retire on a beach somewhere, sipping cold bevvies.
I was only comparing TTD as another player in the digital ad space who is in a good spot. It was more to give an idea about what APPS can become. IMO TTD's run is only beginning as well. Their replacement for the cookie will be a home run.
Hindsight will show that the purchase of APC was a brilliant move. It became a much riskier endeavor when Covid crashed crude. Also keep in mind that it's only by pretty much dumb luck that CVX ended up with NBL for a song. CVX's bid for APC was only $5B away from owing APC themselves. Those who were in it for the dividend would vehemently disagree, but that's ok. The merger was about using synergies for a lower cost of production in a consolidating industry. They will be the low cost producer in the Permian, and that oil in the ground is now worth a lot more than they paid.
The talking heads are saying that after a decade of declining investment, a supercycle is beginning. All boats are going to get lifted. My only concern about the supermajors is what the governments of the world are going to do to them over this climate nonsense.... with Royal Dutch Shell being the latest example. It might be better to limit exposure primarily to North America, or like you said, the LPs and service companies. Been nibbling on some RIG and ET as well.
And yes, retirement on that beach (or tiki bar) is what I hope we all can do!
