Coronavirus Coronavirus: In-Iowa General Discussion (Not Limited)
- Thread starter Jer
- Start date
- Status
I wouldn't necessarily expect their numbers to spike back up. Their "re-opening" will be much more gradual than ours (I suspect) and the real key is if they have a robust "test and trace" process in place. It will also depend a lot on how well the key safety guidelines (spacing, masks, hand washing, etc) have penetrated the collective psyche. I suspect they are much more amenable to those activites than we are (especially when it's been successfully partisanized here)
I don't know that they will spike so much, but I think that is going to be more due to them already being closer to herd immunity of sorts.
Short answer - basically business as usual with certain modifications but overall quite normal & extremely well handled but they have been very proactive about the severity of it all & the need to get testing done quickly & early.
Koreans tend to overreact, so that may have helped initially. They obviously jumped into gear immediately w/testing, tracing, tracking, etc. Honestly, quite amazing how well it has been handled/managed, etc.
There has never been a lockdown.
Public Transportation is up & running so Express Buses (from city to city) as well as high speed trains, regular trains, subways, city buses, taxis, etc are all generally available aside from limiting some of the routes. FYI - their public transport system is fantastic, haven't owned a car in over a decade!
There are thermal imaging cameras almost everywhere you go & most public areas get sprayed down with some sort of disinfectant at least daily.
Stopped by the bank on Monday afternoon & the place was banging.
Made a Costco run last weekend & it was as busy as normal.
Have been out a few nights over the past couple weeks & the restaurants, bars, coffee shops, etc. all seem to be doing alright, although customer numbers & sales totals are down.
Talked to a bar owner in Busan (American guy) who said he was down 70-80%.
The professional baseball league is playing games & I believe there are a few other sports happening as well. Also seeing many people out & about hiking, walking or riding bikes along the river, picnicking, etc.
It's a more conservative country, but the collective mentality here (throughout most Asian countries, really), allows them to understand the importance of taking care of one another, be it healthcare, social services, working from home, providing for those most at risk (although this could be debated in some respects), etc., which is evident from a cultural, societal, & familial perspective.
When I flew in from Cambodia in both late February & mid March, Incheon Airport was phenomenol, extremely effecient & proactive - distancing, temperature checks, extra verification (they called my employer before I went through passport control to confirm my reason for being there), masks & sanitizer were prevelant (still see sanitizer publicly available everywhere & 99% of people wearing masks).
However, during my travels, I noticed some people (Chinese mostly) have taken their personal protection to a whole other level:
Also interesting that they held a national level midterm election on April 15th.
President Moon's immediate, decisive, successful response to Coronavirus basically helped his party's landslide victories....the largest turnout in nearly 30 years....even though, at the end of 2019, his party looked like it was going to take significant losses.
How To Vote In A Global Pandemic
Last edited:
Rant not targeted at you, but this type of information in that Tweet:
First, control for population and the "without NYC" curve looks like the gradual curve all the epidemiologists were hoping we'd have, while Italy and Spain look like sharp spikes that are similar to or above the US on a population basis, exactly what those same epidemiologists are saying we need to avoid. People are looking at a flattened curve - which is exactly what the US has compared to Italy and Spain and say "we failed!"
Yeah, if you let it run through the community and are slow to act, then have a drastic shutdown, all factors suggest a sharp drop-off of the curve. But for about the millionth time, the virus isn't going to be eradicated per epidemiologists, and unless these countries are going to maintain their high levels of lockdown for many months, the area under the curve is going to be the same.
This is the problem with the debate. People are not listening to the epidemiologists and have this fantasy that we lock down for three months we "stop" the virus. Then they are judging success or failure of actions based on that fantasy.
The other problem is people talk to physicians, who focus on the patient-level, and talk about stopping the spread. Reading what the epidemiologists that deal with this on the macro-level, my conclusion is that the overwhelmingly likely scenarios are these:
- It's too infectious and will be around long enough that there is no country that can maintain enough of a "lockdown" for long enough to hold out for a vaccine. Once they open up at all it's coming back.
- The areas under the curve in terms of actual infections are going to be the same no matter what any country probably ends up doing. The best we can do is keep it to a "simmer" so medical resources don't get overwhelmed and lead to higher death rates.
- Do our best to absolutely help and keep on crazy-strict lockdown high risk people, LTC facilities, etc. until a vaccine is in place. That might mean unprecedented levels of lockdown for another 12-24 months. An effective vaccine may never come on line.
- Focus on getting healthy and boosting immunity so when you get it you can fight it off. We are an unhealthy country with horrible lifestyles that are not conducive to fighting off disease. If the US has high death rates, this is going to be why.
- The best case for a drug so far is a test with no good controls and one with good controls. There's no statistically significant evidence of an impact on mortality. There's some impact on rate of recovery, which is good. There are side effects that make the drug a no-go for many at risk patients. Again, good news overall, but at this point there is no evidence of anything being close to production that will save lives any time soon.
Last edited:
Yeah they're testing seems to be way more planned out. Our leadership is saying more tests make us look bad.
I can't think of a single country that I've seen in a bad light that has their **** together for testing.
Hell, Sweden's approach is different, but at least their citizens can know where they stand.
My prediction is cases go down here as we get into summer and spend less time indoors, and instead of that time being used to prepare for the fall, there will be more victory speeches, more callousness toward those that take it seriously, and more spitballing when it comes back around with blame on others.
Based on what?
Their testing rate is significantly higher (~42k/1M vs ~24k/1M) and infection rate is almost exactly the same as ours (For Italy, Spain is higher), with a harsher shutdown - there's no reason to naively assume they have reached any kind of herd immunity.
All tests are going to have error. Perhaps Minnesota's test is giving more false negatives. Perhaps Iowa's has more false positives. perhaps the populations are not the same and Iowa has more infections due to unknown reasons, which might include lots of meat packing plants. Lots of variables.
Minnesota tested heavier at the begining. I pay attention to them since I am right on the border. IIRC, When we were at 10k per capita testing, they were at 13k per capita. They have increased about 20-25% since then and we have doubled. If you were slower testing and go do mass testing at hot spots, you will have the case numbers jump.
You asserted that they are not going to spike because of some perceived better return to normal. You provided no evidence to support this. I'm not sure exactly what numbers you are using so I won't speak to much to that.
The basic premise I was getting at is that assuming they don't spike back up is because of the precautionary measures is misguided for places that maxed out and exceeded their medical resources. The simplest explanation is that as there are more people with some form of immunity (whether you think there is any or not) the spread will be slower as a lower portion of the people an infected person interacts with can become infected.
Personally I expect them to spike, but I was just saying that even if they don't that doesn't mean they have a better plan for reopening. They may have a better plan, but that wouldn't be satisfactory evidence for it.
If you really want to understand then all you have to do is follow the money. Everything has been corrupted FAR beyond most's imaginations.
There are some informative video's out there that YouTube and VIMEO can't scrub fast enough. Hero's are thrown in jail while others get to spend time on TV. Search for something that starts with Plan and rhymes with epidemic.
There are some informative video's out there that YouTube and VIMEO can't scrub fast enough. Hero's are thrown in jail while others get to spend time on TV. Search for something that starts with Plan and rhymes with epidemic.
Last edited:
Yeah Italy or at least parts of it was a mess prior to their shut down so it may have spread widely there but even at the highest estimates of unconfirmed cases it wouldn't even be 1/5 of their population.
perfect on a the day to announce you are opening things up even faster than she said a few days ago!
Yeah their responses were awesome so that is why they have 558 and 491 deaths per million (Merica is 227).
The straw man fighters are out in force.
"Open er up and let her rip" is as valid a summation of the reality of the situation as "staying locked down until a vaccine is ready" would be. I've yet to find anyone actually arguing either case.
The campaign to flatten the curve was universally sold as an effort to protect our medical capacity to deal with the virus. There has been some goalpost moving in recent weeks as it has become obvious that this achievement matters less and less to some as time goes on and the virus continues to be prevalent. As we have learned more about the virus and the consequences of shutdown, it seems that COVID is both less virulent/deadly than originally believed and efforts to control it here are less effective than modeled for a variety of reasons.
There are no good answers of how to balance the public health, economic, and social impacts here. There are only a series of unpalatable options to choose from. Anybody telling you otherwise is full of ****.
People have agency, and I think it is an ok thing for officials to both allow a business to return and the business owners to make the decision not to do so until they feel it is right for them.
The same goes for the reverse. Badgering people that they are killing others by going to work is false and a poor method of persuasion, so I don't do it.
"Open er up and let her rip" is as valid a summation of the reality of the situation as "staying locked down until a vaccine is ready" would be. I've yet to find anyone actually arguing either case.
The campaign to flatten the curve was universally sold as an effort to protect our medical capacity to deal with the virus. There has been some goalpost moving in recent weeks as it has become obvious that this achievement matters less and less to some as time goes on and the virus continues to be prevalent. As we have learned more about the virus and the consequences of shutdown, it seems that COVID is both less virulent/deadly than originally believed and efforts to control it here are less effective than modeled for a variety of reasons.
There are no good answers of how to balance the public health, economic, and social impacts here. There are only a series of unpalatable options to choose from. Anybody telling you otherwise is full of ****.
People have agency, and I think it is an ok thing for officials to both allow a business to return and the business owners to make the decision not to do so until they feel it is right for them.
The same goes for the reverse. Badgering people that they are killing others by going to work is false and a poor method of persuasion, so I don't do it.
Unfortunately there were so many that complained at our president when he did put travel bans to and from other countries.
- Status
