Thoughts on B12 Future

[JJIII]

Ahead of writing for this week, and in an attempt to avoid blathering on in an article, I had a thought that I would love to get feedback on.

I think Neal Brown, Matt Wells, Chris Klieman, Lincoln Riley, Mike Gundy, Gary Patterson, won't acknowledge Baylor, and Tom Herman are good coaches. Each program, along with Iowa State has been building and will continue as the new coaches reach their potential, which is very high. This makes for a killer conference from a competitive standpoint.

All QB's are likely to return except for Hurts and Stanley. I can't remember if Brewer is a senior or not. OU has an all worlder waiting in the wings. Purdy, Duggan, Doege, Rattler, Brewer, Bowman/Duffy, Sanders, Thompson, and Ehlinger makes for a ridiculous bag of riches at quarterback.

There is no point except that the top of the conference may expand from 2 to 6 or 7 teams. Am I right? What does it mean for the conference? Playoff chances? Iowa State's position in it. Is it sustainable? How does it rate against the Big 10 and the SEC? What about national perception?

 

[FinalFourCy]

Like basketball, the Big 12 will be the most competitive and toughest to accumulate a lot of wins. This will lead to the perception of not having as many top teams.

 

[SoapyCy]

Don't make realignment decisions based on temporary quarterbacks.

 

[knowlesjam]

I think you also have to take a look at what each team is returning offensive line-wise. What team(s) are going to have a junior/senior laden line that is going to make a difference. A good QB does you no good if your line is crap. The point is, as noted above, QB's are temporary...good for show at that time, but nothing to really back them up when you are talking about the future.

 

[JJIII]

Absolutely, the margins for winning and losing become smaller and evaluation of team strengths must expand.

The basketball comparison is really good. I had not thought of that, but think it is spot on.

Are we sure there will be realignment? Asking, not rhetorical. But, if there is, hasn’t Iowa State’s relative success increased the profile for those discussions?

 

[CarterCloneFan]

Ehlinger is only a junior? I feel like he’s been at Texas for about 5 years. I guess that’s how other teams are going to feel about Brock Purdy over the next couple of years. Big 12 quarterback list is pretty incredible to think about honestly

 

[DarkStar]

I think OU holds the keys to the future of the conference. If they decide to go somewhere else then the conference falls apart. Media landscape is still up in the air and will drive the next round of realignment.

 

[isukendall]

Don't make realignment decisions based on temporary quarterbacks.

I don't think the OP is about realignment, although I had to read twice to be sure.

OP is saying as teams will continue to get good, there will be more parity at the top, and what will that do with public perception.

I agree with others that this will come of as "unimpressive" to the pundits, who are the same ones who rank 3 SEC teams in the top 10 preseason, only to rave about how glorious the SEC is when they beat each other. Really, the only way to combat this, is to schedule really tough OOC early season games, and win em all.

 

[surly]

As the outlier here, I just want to make it through this year and see how recruiting goes. K-State is losing its entire o'line although it's not clear today that group is a real strength. Otherwise, next year looks promising, yes. Skylar Thompson is a fine college quarterback. As noted above, the position is critical to success, even though in this league most every program can quickly checkmate that strength.

 

[Malty Flannel]

The stronger the teams in conference get from top to bottom, the more important it becomes for them individually, and for the conference as a whole, to perform well in non-conference and bowl season. Just like another poster mentioned with basketball - there are (most) years where the league schedule is ridiculously tough, and we all beat each other up all season, but then come March only 2 BXII teams make it past the first weekend. Gotta show up when everyone else is paying attention.

 

[TedKumsher]

Aside from historical conference bias, I think the "ideal" conference from a national standpoint is one where there are 1 or 2, maybe 3 teams at the obvious top of the conference. Then you want about half of your conference to just be terrible. The not-terrible-but-not-top-2 teams can all look better with decent records against the terrible bottom half. Though sometimes people will talk about "top-to-bottom this is a strong conference" -- I never see that translate to thinking the conference is strong from an overall national perspective. Nationally nobody seems to care about the bottom 2/3 of a conference.
This, I believe, is one of the biggest side effects of the Big 12 only having 10 teams. Not enough easy (-ish) wins.

Big 12 top 5 teams' conference records:
6-1
6-1
4-3
4-3
4-3
combined 24-11 68.6%

Big 10 top 5 teams' conference records:
7-0
6-1
6-1
5-2
5-2
combined 29-6 82.9%

SEC top 5 teams' conference records:
6-0
6-1
6-1
6-2
4-2
combined 28-6 82.4%

Big 12 bottom 5 teams' conference records:
1-6
2-5
2-5
3-4
3-4
combined 11-24 31.4%

Big 10 bottom 5 teams' conference records:
0-7
0-7
1-6
2-5
2-5
combined 5-30 14.3%

SEC bottom 5 teams' conference records:
0-6
1-6
2-5
2-5
2-4
combined 7-26 21.2%

 

[TedKumsher]

. . . Are we sure there will be realignment? . . .

Well, I guess you're really asking about timeframe and perhaps scope.
Independent for 15 years.
Missouri Valley (3 different versions) for 19 years.
Big Six/Big Seven/Big Eight for 67 years (10 versions).
Big 12 (3 versions) for 24 years.

 

[madguy30]

The perception of the conference will always go with what the OUs and Texas's are doing, and the perception of ISU will follow. If it's a dogfight at the top, the perception will be that the conference isn't very good.

Was just in Hokland this weekend and some friends were talking about how the B12 doesn't play defense, etc. (let's ignore that there lots of yards in the B1G's games this weekend, while OU actually held BU to 300 yards and most of the scores were very similar between the conferences).

ISU has given up an opponents' scoring average or above what, maybe 3 times in the last 3 years if that? You couldn't convince anyone in fanbases' like the B1G's that they've been playing good defense.

 

[jbindm]

Ehlinger is only a junior? I feel like he’s been at Texas for about 5 years. I guess that’s how other teams are going to feel about Brock Purdy over the next couple of years. Big 12 quarterback list is pretty incredible to think about honestly

He's a junior, but I don't think it's a lock that he comes back for his senior year either. It's hard to say. The QB class for this year looks pretty deep (assuming Tua, Eason, and Fromm all turn pro) so Ehlinger could be better off coming back for one more year.

 

[CoachHines3]

Aside from historical conference bias, I think the "ideal" conference from a national standpoint is one where there are 1 or 2, maybe 3 teams at the obvious top of the conference. Then you want about half of your conference to just be terrible. The not-terrible-but-not-top-2 teams can all look better with decent records against the terrible bottom half. Though sometimes people will talk about "top-to-bottom this is a strong conference" -- I never see that translate to thinking the conference is strong from an overall national perspective. Nationally nobody seems to care about the bottom 2/3 of a conference.
This, I believe, is one of the biggest side effects of the Big 12 only having 10 teams. Not enough easy (-ish) wins.

Big 12 top 5 teams' conference records:
6-1
6-1
4-3
4-3
4-3
combined 24-11 68.6%

Big 10 top 5 teams' conference records:
7-0
6-1
6-1
5-2
5-2
combined 29-6 82.9%

SEC top 5 teams' conference records:
6-0
6-1
6-1
6-2
4-2
combined 28-6 82.4%

Big 12 bottom 5 teams' conference records:
1-6
2-5
2-5
3-4
3-4
combined 11-24 31.4%

Big 10 bottom 5 teams' conference records:
0-7
0-7
1-6
2-5
2-5
combined 5-30 14.3%

SEC bottom 5 teams' conference records:
0-6
1-6
2-5
2-5
2-4
combined 7-26 21.2%

this is a bit skewed with some of these teams not playing the conferences other good teams.

 

[BWRhasnoAC]

As far as super conference realignment Big 12 will be back seat to SEC and B1G bias. Doesn't matter what the analytics say, even though we all understand this conference is better top to bottom, hubris will prevent that from actually mattering. ISU is big enough now I think we are in after next alignment. Just from fan support and money spent we have been up there with the big boys for a few years.

 

[Jerms]

Aside from historical conference bias, I think the "ideal" conference from a national standpoint is one where there are 1 or 2, maybe 3 teams at the obvious top of the conference. Then you want about half of your conference to just be terrible. The not-terrible-but-not-top-2 teams can all look better with decent records against the terrible bottom half. Though sometimes people will talk about "top-to-bottom this is a strong conference" -- I never see that translate to thinking the conference is strong from an overall national perspective. Nationally nobody seems to care about the bottom 2/3 of a conference.
This, I believe, is one of the biggest side effects of the Big 12 only having 10 teams. Not enough easy (-ish) wins.

Big 12 top 5 teams' conference records:
6-1
6-1
4-3
4-3
4-3
combined 24-11 68.6%

Big 10 top 5 teams' conference records:
7-0
6-1
6-1
5-2
5-2
combined 29-6 82.9%

SEC top 5 teams' conference records:
6-0
6-1
6-1
6-2
4-2
combined 28-6 82.4%

Big 12 bottom 5 teams' conference records:
1-6
2-5
2-5
3-4
3-4
combined 11-24 31.4%

Big 10 bottom 5 teams' conference records:
0-7
0-7
1-6
2-5
2-5
combined 5-30 14.3%

SEC bottom 5 teams' conference records:
0-6
1-6
2-5
2-5
2-4
combined 7-26 21.2%

Exactly why we need Baylor to suck again, and Kansas to stay there as well as KSU.

 

[norcalcy]

One measure of conference supremacy might be National Titles awarded in the modern era. Over the past 50 years, a total of 58 national champions have been crowned (many years had shared titles, most recently 2003). Aside from the utter dominance of $EC this century, it is hard to conclude much. Interesting to note Ohio State and Michigan have a total of 3 titles in the last 50 years, one less than Oklahoma. Amazing how far Nebraska, USC and Miami have fallen.

 

[Aclone]

Ahead of writing for this week, and in an attempt to avoid blathering on in an article, I had a thought that I would love to get feedback on.

I think Neal Brown, Matt Wells, Chris Klieman, Lincoln Riley, Mike Gundy, Gary Patterson, won't acknowledge Baylor, and Tom Herman are good coaches. Each program, along with Iowa State has been building and will continue as the new coaches reach their potential, which is very high. This makes for a killer conference from a competitive standpoint.

All QB's are likely to return except for Hurts and Stanley. I can't remember if Brewer is a senior or not. OU has an all worlder waiting in the wings. Purdy, Duggan, Doege, Rattler, Brewer, Bowman/Duffy, Sanders, Thompson, and Ehlinger makes for a ridiculous bag of riches at quarterback.

There is no point except that the top of the conference may expand from 2 to 6 or 7 teams. Am I right? What does it mean for the conference? Playoff chances? Iowa State's position in it. Is it sustainable? How does it rate against the Big 10 and the SEC? What about national perception?

Looks like most people missed your point, Jay.

what do you think of ISU’s 2020 OL? That’s going to be what makes everything else go.

 

[JRE1975]

The problem the Big 12 has with perception outside of our footprint is that ESPN, still the main source for sports news and analysis to the largest part of the country, has a built in bias to promote the SEC and the ACC because they own and operate the conference networks. They also want to promote the Big 10 because it represents a large amount of their inventory of games in high population areas. Texas is the only Big 12 school they have a financial self interest to promote.

As our football teams have more parity, and it is harder to win conference games, our teams are naturally going to schedule as many wins in non-conference as possible.

I think no matter how good anyone other than OU and UT are, if the two big guys don't win the conference the national media will say it is a down year. To support my argument, the year Baylor and TCU were at the top, we didn't get any respect in the playoffs or major bowls.