THT Going into the Draft

[cykadelic2]

The problem with this mess is the NBA contract setup. Such a steep potential drop for simply going #31 as opposed to #30. You ruin some kids lives because they may be told they are a 1st round pick but you slip just a little and the results are terrible. I think if a contract is not guaranteed then the player should have the option of going back to school after knowing that fact. Somewhat like baseball.

Two major changes need to be made that would benefit both CBB and the NBA:

1. Once enrolled in school, a player is ineligible to play in the NBA for two years. Elite HS prospects can elect to go one and done via GLeague, NBL, Euroleague, China, etc. It was and would continue to be bad business for the NBA to Draft HS prospects.

2. With #1 in place, sophomores and juniors would be eligible to be drafted in the first round only. If not selected in the first round, they would have the option to return to school or play professionally for one seaso in a league other than the NBA and then re-enter the Draft pool with no restrictions.

 

[Dandy]

Updated CBS Sports mock has THT going 38th overall (8th in 2nd round) to the Bulls.

"Horton-Tucker might be a year away from being a year away, but Chicago isn't in win-now mode, anyway. He's still 18-years-old, he's 6-4 with a 7-1 wingspan, and is brimming with potential."

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/...with-first-of-six-selections-over-two-rounds/

They rank him the 33rd best prospect.

 

[ArgentCy]

Not a good sign that he is slipping into the second round. Hopefully this isn't a bait and switch situation but we've never felt good about the so called draft experts.

 

[cyclonespiker33]

Two major changes need to be made that would benefit both CBB and the NBA:

1. Once enrolled in school, a player is ineligible to play in the NBA for two years. Elite HS prospects can elect to go one and done via GLeague, NBL, Euroleague, China, etc. It was and would continue to be bad business for the NBA to Draft HS prospects.

2. With #1 in place, sophomores and juniors would be eligible to be drafted in the first round only. If not selected in the first round, they would have the option to return to school or play professionally for one seaso in a league other than the NBA and then re-enter the Draft pool with no restrictions.

Guys like Ben Simmons should be able to go straight from HS to the NBA. They shouldn't be stuck in a lower level league when they have NBA talent.

And are you saying that somebody cannot play in the NBA if they are taken in the second round?

 

[Sigmapolis]

I hate to be reductive, but I have always thought (under the current system) that a guy should only go if (1.) he is 100% sure he goes first-round or (2.) he is out of eligibility.

The benefits of going in the first-round on that first contract, given the difference in $$$ and the investment in time and patience teams will make in you, versus what you can expect in the second-round really is night-and-day. I know the "start earning money/get to the second contract sooner" crowd has its points, but life for second-round picks is hard.

Good luck to Talen either way, though.

 

[HFCS]

Guys like Ben Simmons should be able to go straight from HS to the NBA. They shouldn't be stuck in a lower level league when they have NBA talent.

And are you saying that somebody cannot play in the NBA if they are taken in the second round?

I think the market might have corrected itself a bit in terms of so many of the lottery picks being high school busts...if the rules hadn't been changed.

LeBron (obviously beyond NBA ready) was the last class to be eligible and prior to him the busts had really started piling up.

KD would have been a can't miss high schooler since then, probably Simmons and Zion too. Maybe I'm missing one or two others but at some point teams would have started hedging their bets with college and international picks. With only two picks teams were starting to get burned when more than half of their picks were high school kids. It was also becoming too common that teams drafted raw high schoolers, paid them to learn and struggle, then they were stars at their next stop when they signed a free agent deal. Jermaine ONeal comes to mind, the team that drafted him didn't get much and the next team got an all star.

 

[ArgentCy]

I hate to be reductive, but I have always thought (under the current system) that a guy should only go if (1.) he is 100% sure he goes first-round or (2.) he is out of eligibility.

The benefits of going in the first-round on that first contract, given the difference in $$$ and the investment in time and patience teams will make in you, versus what you can expect in the second-round really is night-and-day. I know the "start earning money/get to the second contract sooner" crowd has its points, but life for second-round picks is hard.

Good luck to Talen either way, though.

The problem becomes this. It is to the advantage of these teams to tell more kids than is possible that they are all likely 1st round picks. Perhaps they thought that at a time or perhaps not but it gives them more from which to choose. The system is good for the NBA and NCAA and sucks for kids, because it is essentially a collusion.

 

[Sigmapolis]

The problem becomes this. It is to the advantage of these teams to tell more kids than is possible that they are all likely 1st round picks. Perhaps they thought that at a time or perhaps not but it gives them more from which to choose. The system is good for the NBA and NCAA and sucks for kids, because it is essentially a collusion.

I do not know if it is collusion so much as asymmetric information.

The teams know what they think of the kids and who they will really draft late in the first. They have no downsides for telling kids to stay in the draft and, heck, why not, considering it at least gives you more options and more talent in the second-round.

Either way, sucks for the kids on the line like Talen.

 

[brokenloginagain]

Two comments from me: Georges Niang did a great job explaining this on the podcast about how players get labeled/evaluated once they "test the waters." You better really be good/ready to go if you do that, because are you really going to improve that much in 6-8 months??

And second, CF knowledge on NBA contracts seems a bit dated.

https://collegebasketball.nbcsports...aranteed-contracts-at-exceedingly-high-rates/

 

[Sigmapolis]

Big difference between then and now is that there was no G League then. There is now. So these teams should feel more comfortable drafting guys, because they can theoretically just stash them in their G League affiliates.

The D-League roster is not infinitely deep, though.

I would figure teams are going to want to keep turning it over quickly -- if a guy is not showing much development, there are always other upside plays to move onto.

 

[SolarGarlic]

Updated CBS Sports mock has THT going 38th overall (8th in 2nd round) to the Bulls.

"Horton-Tucker might be a year away from being a year away, but Chicago isn't in win-now mode, anyway. He's still 18-years-old, he's 6-4 with a 7-1 wingspan, and is brimming with potential."

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/...with-first-of-six-selections-over-two-rounds/

They rank him the 33rd best prospect.

lol Bulls fans would love that....another Iowa State guy.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Correct, but that would happen no matter when someone is drafted.

The first-round guy at least has more $$$ for his trouble before going over to Europe and/or always has that perception as a first-round guy (and the contract behind him) that might make teams a little less likely to move on or make it more likely that another team might give you a second look, though. First-round guys walk out with a much higher floor for money, the benefits of the sunk cost facility with teams investing time, effort, and money in you in order to justify them drafting you in the first place, and a better pedigree for maybe having a second chance at the NBA or once you are moving over onto your next opportunity.

 

[madguy30]

I don't follow the draft vs. results..how have many of the one and done/early entry players faired over the last several years? As in, are there several examples of players leaving early, not getting drafted and essentially doing nothing?

 

[LLCoolCY]

lol Bulls fans would love that....another Iowa State guy.

THT would get full support from Bulls fans let's not forget he played at Simeon in HS... their fans would fully support him. Hometown return would trump any hesitancy about adding another Cyclone.

 

[BoxsterCy]

Two comments from me: Georges Niang did a great job explaining this on the podcast about how players get labeled/evaluated once they "test the waters." You better really be good/ready to go if you do that, because are you really going to improve that much in 6-8 months??

And second, CF knowledge on NBA contracts seems a bit dated.

https://collegebasketball.nbcsports...aranteed-contracts-at-exceedingly-high-rates/

Some good stuff in that link.

 

[SolarGarlic]

THT would get full support from Bulls fans let's not forget he played at Simeon in HS... their fans would fully support him. Hometown return would trump any hesitancy about adding another Cyclone.

That's a good point, but I don't know. The Iowa State/GarPax hate is real over there.

 

[RustShack]

I hate to be reductive, but I have always thought (under the current system) that a guy should only go if (1.) he is 100% sure he goes first-round or (2.) he is out of eligibility.

The benefits of going in the first-round on that first contract, given the difference in $$$ and the investment in time and patience teams will make in you, versus what you can expect in the second-round really is night-and-day. I know the "start earning money/get to the second contract sooner" crowd has its points, but life for second-round picks is hard.

Good luck to Talen either way, though.

60+ players are told they are first rounders. Some guys just get bad advice. When the deadline passed, most sites had THT mocked between 20-24.

 

[cyclones500]

CBS Sports latest projection has Talen at #36 (to Charlotte).

 

[NorthCyd]

It's a real shame if he doesn't get drafted 1st round. He definitely could have benefited from another year and development. He's so young if he would have killed it next year he might have been a lottery pick. I understand Wigginton going. There is probably nothing short of being a first team all American that would have gotten him a 1st round pick. THT is different IMO.

 

[Sigmapolis]

It's a real shame if he doesn't get drafted 1st round. He definitely could have benefited from another year and development. He's so young if he would have killed it next year he might have been a lottery pick. I understand Wigginton going. There is probably nothing short of being a first team all American that would have gotten him a 1st round pick. THT is different IMO.

The best version of Wigginton that we have seen could have done that, especially considering the setup of the roster next year for him to score and shine doing it.

I have a sinking feeling both these guys might somewhat fail to launch.