THT Going into the Draft

Discussion in 'Mens Basketball' started by JM4CY, Apr 1, 2019.

  1. crash_zone

    crash_zone Well-Known Member

    Apr 10, 2006
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    If he goes second round, something didn’t go as planned. Can always work hard and make a team, but 2nd round is no guarantee.

    If that does happen - should have come back for another yr. I hope he goes in the first and does well.
     
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  2. cyfanatic

    cyfanatic Well-Known Member

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    Contractually speaking...what is the difference between being picked #30 (first round) and #31 (second round)? I know there will be a certain dollar amount but how much? And what type of guarantees/advantages/benefits for the guy going #30 that aren't there for the guy going #31?
     
  3. Dandy

    Dandy Well-Known Member

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    Late 1st >>>>>>>>>>>> (x infinity) Early 2nd
     
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  4. Sigmapolis

    Sigmapolis Well-Known Member
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    https://brobible.com/sports/article/nba-draft-contract-values-first-second-round/

    [​IMG]

    -- first-round picks have at least some guaranteed money
    -- that guaranteed contract is at least for two years, if I remember
    -- there are various team options and RFA to extend that contract, as well
    -- making the first-round at all is worth at least like $1.5 million on its own, even if you never play a minute for an NBA team and just kick around the D-League

    -- after that, literally nothing is guaranteed... a team could take you 31st overall and just choose not to sign you, which means you are out on your behind
    -- you basically get what you can negotiate/earn at that point, as you can see
    -- roughly half the second-round does not sign with their team
    -- of them, they usually get about half the money as late first-round picks

    So basically falling from #30 to #31 reduces your expected return by 75%.

    The upside of playing yourself into the first-round is so great and the unknowns with the second-round so difficult that you are generally better off returning to school no matter what unless you are really sure you are going in the first-round. We will see if it works out for THT and LW. We think THT has a late first-round lock, but LW has a steep road to climb.
     
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  5. c.y.c.l.o.n.e.s

    c.y.c.l.o.n.e.s Well-Known Member

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    30th = $1,350,400 first year $1,581,500 second year $1,656,900 third year guaranteed
    31st = $0 guaranteed

    Edit: that is the rookie scale. First round picks can sign for as much as 120% and as little as 80% of the rookie scale and the third year is optional.
     
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  6. cyfanatic

    cyfanatic Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for the information. Can't imagine being a guy (like THT) being projected in the late first round! Makes me feel bad for that guy at #31!
     
  7. Sigmapolis

    Sigmapolis Well-Known Member
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    Yeah, it really is a chasm in terms of your expected $$$ and future from one pick to the next. Lots of guys are going to have some awful butterflies in their stomach when it comes down to those last handful of picks in the first-round on June 20.

    There is the added "weight" of the moment being that it kind of brands and ossifies your raw level of talent for your future in the league, too. High draft picks, even if obvious busts, are given chance after chance because of their purported potential from going high in the draft. Guys who went late in the first or in the second? Not so much.

    I have seen a similar effect in the job market -- I have seen some people with gaudy degrees who are completely useless employees. They get more opportunities and chances, though, simply because of that parchment compared to more productive and flexible workers who did not tank 4-5 years getting the "right" degrees like somebody else.

    Your degree "brands" you just as much as your draft position.
     
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  8. Sigmapolis

    Sigmapolis Well-Known Member
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    upload_2019-6-4_10-6-58.png

    #26 to Cleveland

    Paired with Jarrett Culver at #5
     
  9. c.y.c.l.o.n.e.s

    c.y.c.l.o.n.e.s Well-Known Member

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    Whenever we discuss guaranteed money, I think of Royce White.
    He made 3.4 million dollars as the 16th pick and did not play in the NBA. (maybe a couple of games?)

    As I was looking up his salary I saw a list of 2012 draft picks. Everyone raves about the Warriors drafting ability but they chose Festus Ezeli (OK player but not great) with the 30th pick and he sign a roughly $ 2,000,000 rookie contract. Five picks later they signed Draymond Green who had to work his way on to the team and eventually signed a 2 year contract worth $850,000 per year.
     
  10. LLCoolJansma

    LLCoolJansma Well-Known Member

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    While it is true the NBA Barganing agreement doesn't require the team drafting the player to give them a guaranteed contract most the deal 31-45ish actually do get negotiated money in their contracts often up near to the level of the last pick of the First round.
    Also a number of second round picks are "bought" for up to 2 million by teams, and if that occurs the GM is heavily invested in those players succeeding.


    It is far preferable to be a 1at round pick, but I just wanted to point out the drop off isn't a mile if THT slips to the early 2nd round.

    FWIW I still believe a team in the 20's will take a chance on Talen's physical tools and age. We have to remember a lot of the mocks are from one person's perspective and some may be scared off by his uneven play others look at his potential and have him as a last half pick in their eyes. All he needs is one GM out of the #15-#30 to have the optimistic outlook for him to be a first rounder.
     
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  11. Dandy

    Dandy Well-Known Member

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    Cleveland?! May God have mercy on his soul/career. Maybe Beilein can turn that thing around.
     
  12. Sigmapolis

    Sigmapolis Well-Known Member
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    Cleveland, city of light, city of magic.
     
  13. heitclone

    heitclone Well-Known Member

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    The thing that doesn't get said enough is, there are really only a handful of picks that actually matter in the NBA draft. Teams don't rely on the draft to build their teams, some are jockeying a season or two ahead to get in a position to make a free agency move for would be free agents years down the road.

    Most of these picks are a 2 or 3 year investment at best, even the top picks aren't guaranteed to stick around so there is just very little risk in drafting a guy who has some potential or intangibles, THT has both of those. Worst case scenario, a kid doesn't pan out, you GL them and sign a free agent.
     
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  14. cyfanatic

    cyfanatic Well-Known Member

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    True...but from the player's perspective that is huge! How many guys are hoping to stick or slide into the first round...that have late first round grades/early second round grades? But may or may not fit the need of a team? There are many factors at play...team needs may push a kid out of the first round or a team not taking someone expected to go early and it throws off who is available at certain picks. The uncertainty would be crazy on draft night for those late first round players!
     
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  15. srjclone

    srjclone Well-Known Member

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    20-30 is a fair assessment. A lot of people don't understand or can't see it, but there was a lot of good that THT did this year. Albeit very overshadowed by his poor performances late in the year. But if you think that "question mark/red flag" will keep the late 1st round teams from taking a chance, all you need to do is look at Arfernee Simons.
     
  16. cyclonespiker33

    cyclonespiker33 Well-Known Member

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    If THT was coming back next year, everyone would expect a big jump from him and predict all-conference honors.

    But he sucks because he declared for the draft.




    Yeah, okay.
     
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  17. RustShack

    RustShack Well-Known Member

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    As a Cavs fan, I would be ecstatic if the draft fell like that. Culver or Reddish with THT.
     
  18. RustShack

    RustShack Well-Known Member

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    Worst case for THT he falls to the second round, but he’s so young and talented with a freakish wingspan and good weight for his size that a team will still sign him to a two way contract and let him play in the G-League.
     
  19. Cydkar

    Cydkar Well-Known Member

    Apr 12, 2006
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    His readiness has very little relevance. The fact that he can clearly develop into somebody who IS ready is why he's draftable.
     
  20. CycloneErik

    CycloneErik Well-Known Member

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    There almost needs to be an entrance requirement for these NBA Draft threads to see if posters understand that teams are looking long-term with picks, and not necessarily at right-now contributions.

    We've had guys going through this for a few years now. It shouldn't be that hard to figure out.
     
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