What about losing to KSU after winning against OSU?
I just wonder if our ticket would have already been punched or dang near it.
Using the Python program I wrote to simulate the Big 12 season 100k times, pretending ISU beats OSU and loses to KSU:
Oklahoma: 100.0% (100.0% 1st, 0.0% 2nd)
TCU: 97.3% (0.0% 1st, 97.3% 2nd)
Iowa St.: 2.5% (0.0% 1st, 2.5% 2nd)
West Virginia: 0.2% (0.0% 1st, 0.2% 2nd)
In the real world, assuming an ISU win Saturday:
Oklahoma: 100.0% (100.0% 1st, 0.0% 2nd)
TCU: 99.2% (0.0% 1st, 99.2% 2nd)
Iowa St.: 0.8% (0.0% 1st, 0.8% 2nd)
West Virginia: <0.1% (0.0% 1st, 0.0% 2nd)
So ISU's chances would improve from infinitesimal to merely very very unlikely.
Just because, here's the odds if ISU had won both those games:
Oklahoma: 100.0% (80.9% 1st, 19.1% 2nd)
Iowa St.: 100.0% (19.1% 1st, 80.9% 2nd)